Predictions / Football / Sweden. Superettan / IFK Norrkoping vs falkenbergs FF

Prediction Audit: IFK Norrkoping vs falkenbergs FF Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

IFK Norrkoping IFK Norrkoping
Aug 24, 2026 - 17:05
2 1.58
1 1.90
xG Accuracy: 70%
falkenbergs FF falkenbergs FF

The model missed the final outcome (IFK Norrkoping win 2–1).

The model had projected falkenbergs FF at 44.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 falkenbergs FF IFK Norrkoping ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices IFK Norrkoping higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: IFK Norrkoping -29.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
IFK Norrkoping 31.2% 60.9% -29.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 24.5% 21.5% +3.0 pp Aligned
falkenbergs FF 44.3% 17.6% +26.7 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates IFK Norrkoping's win probability at 60.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.2%, a difference of 29.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was IFK Norrkoping win 2–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.48) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned falkenbergs FF; match finished IFK Norrkoping

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on falkenbergs FF by 29.7 percentage points (74.0% vs model 44.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 24, 2026 · 19:15 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · IFK Norrkoping 31.2% · Draw 24.5% · falkenbergs FF 44.2%
    • xG · IFK Norrkoping 1.58 — falkenbergs FF 1.90
  2. Aug 24, 2026 · 16:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · IFK Norrkoping 1.56 · Draw 4.42 · falkenbergs FF 5.39
    • Implied 1X2 · IFK Norrkoping 60.9% · Draw 21.5% · falkenbergs FF 17.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 24, 2026 · 17:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · IFK Norrkoping 1.56 · Draw 4.42 · falkenbergs FF 5.39
    • Implied 1X2 · IFK Norrkoping 60.9% · Draw 21.5% · falkenbergs FF 17.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 24, 2026 · 17:05 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result IFK Norrkoping win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 48/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (30 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 13/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 18, 2026 · 02:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4456271

Closing Odds 1.56
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result IFK Norrkoping win · IFK Norrkoping 2–1 falkenbergs FF
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Superettan
  • Fixture: IFK Norrkoping vs falkenbergs FF
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-24 17:05:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 50.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 0.0%
  • xG (showing): IFK Norrkoping 1.58 — falkenbergs FF 1.9 (total xG ≈ 3.48)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Superettan Superettan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 IFK Norrkoping 25 17 4 4 55
2 falkenbergs FF 25 13 6 6 45
3 Varbergs BoIS FC 25 13 5 7 44
4 Ostersunds FK 25 11 10 4 43
5 Landskrona BoIS 25 11 7 7 40
6 Oddevold 25 9 9 7 36
7 Osters IF 25 11 3 11 36
8 United Nordic 25 9 9 7 36
9 Sandviken 25 9 7 9 34
10 Helsingborg 25 8 6 11 30
11 IFK Varnamo 25 8 5 12 29
12 ljungSKile SK 25 7 7 11 28
13 Norrby IF 25 4 12 9 24
14 Orebro SK 25 5 9 11 24
15 IK brage 25 5 8 12 23
16 GIF Sundsvall 25 6 1 18 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 IFK Norrkoping 25 48 16 +32 55
2 falkenbergs FF 25 46 33 +13 45
3 Varbergs BoIS FC 25 44 33 +11 44
4 Sandviken 25 41 35 +6 34
5 Landskrona BoIS 25 39 26 +13 40
6 IK brage 25 39 48 -9 23
7 Oddevold 25 38 34 +4 36
8 Osters IF 25 38 38 0 36
9 United Nordic 25 38 40 -2 36
10 Helsingborg 25 36 45 -9 30
11 Ostersunds FK 25 33 24 +9 43
12 ljungSKile SK 25 33 36 -3 28
13 IFK Varnamo 25 33 45 -12 29
14 Norrby IF 25 28 35 -7 24
15 Orebro SK 25 27 39 -12 24
16 GIF Sundsvall 25 19 53 -34 19
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Varbergs BoIS FC 25 4.8 2.8 +2.0 44
2 IFK Norrkoping 25 4.5 2.8 +1.7 55
3 ljungSKile SK 25 1.2 1.1 +0.1 28
4 Oddevold 25 1.1 1.2 -0.1 36
5 Landskrona BoIS 25 1.6 2.6 -1.0 40
6 Ostersunds FK 25 0.6 3.4 -2.8 43
7 falkenbergs FF 25 — — — 45
8 Osters IF 25 — — — 36
9 United Nordic 25 — — — 36
10 Sandviken 25 — — — 34
11 Helsingborg 25 — — — 30
12 IFK Varnamo 25 — — — 29
13 Norrby IF 25 — — — 24
14 Orebro SK 25 — — — 24
15 IK brage 25 — — — 23
16 GIF Sundsvall 25 — — — 19