Football Poisson Calculator
xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.
INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
24.98%
Fair Odds
4.0
Draw
18.3%
Fair Odds
5.46
Away Win
56.72%
Fair Odds
1.76
Most Likely Score
2 - 2
Probability 6.19%
Fair Odds 16.17
Match probability & odds output
FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
| Market | Market Odds | Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. | Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home Win | 4.0 | — | |
| Draw | 5.46 | — | |
| Away Win | 1.76 | — |
Find Value Opportunities
Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.
See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
| # | Correct Score | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2-2 | 6.19% | 16.17 |
| 2 | 1-2 | 6.15% | 16.25 |
| 3 | 2-3 | 6.06% | 16.5 |
| 4 | 1-3 | 6.03% | 16.58 |
| 5 | 2-4 | 4.46% | 22.44 |
| 6 | 1-4 | 4.43% | 22.56 |
| 7 | 2-1 | 4.21% | 23.76 |
| 8 | 1-1 | 4.19% | 23.88 |
| 9 | 3-2 | 4.14% | 24.13 |
| 10 | 3-3 | 4.06% | 24.62 |
SCORE MATRIX
Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
0.71%
141.14
|
2.08%
48.01
|
3.06%
32.66
|
3.0%
33.32
|
2.21%
45.34
|
1.3%
77.11
|
| 1 |
1.42%
70.22
|
4.19%
23.88
|
6.15%
16.25
|
6.03%
16.58
|
4.43%
22.56
|
2.61%
38.36
|
| 2 |
1.43%
69.87
|
4.21%
23.76
|
6.19%
16.17
|
6.06%
16.5
|
4.46%
22.44
|
2.62%
38.17
|
| 3 |
0.96%
104.29
|
2.82%
35.47
|
4.14%
24.13
|
4.06%
24.62
|
2.99%
33.5
|
1.76%
56.97
|
| 4 |
0.48%
207.51
|
1.42%
70.59
|
2.08%
48.02
|
2.04%
49.0
|
1.5%
66.67
|
0.88%
113.38
|
| 5 |
0.19%
516.26
|
0.57%
175.59
|
0.84%
119.45
|
0.82%
121.89
|
0.6%
165.84
|
0.35%
282.01
|
Any other score (6+ goals either side)
9.34%
·
Fair:
10.71
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 86.6% | 13.4% |
| 1.5 | 59.67% | 40.33% |
| 2.5 | 32.6% | 67.4% |
| 3.5 | 14.47% | 85.53% |
| 4.5 | 5.36% | 94.64% |
Away Team
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 94.69% | 5.29% |
| 1.5 | 79.15% | 20.83% |
| 2.5 | 56.3% | 43.68% |
| 3.5 | 33.91% | 66.07% |
| 4.5 | 17.45% | 82.52% |
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
| Goals | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.71% | 141.14 |
| 1 | 3.51% | 28.51 |
| 2 | 8.68% | 11.52 |
| 3 | 14.32% | 6.98 |
| 4 | 17.72% | 5.64 |
| 5+ | 55.06% | 1.82 |
|
Over 2.5 87.08%
Under 2.5 12.89%
|
||
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win
24.98%
Draw
18.30%
Away Win
56.72%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
87.08%
Under 2.5
12.89%
Both to Score
Yes
82.0%
No
18.0%
Asian Handicap Probability
?
Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model.
Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines.
Home Handicap
| Line | Home Side | Push | Away Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 5.66% 17.66 | 7.39% 13.53 | 86.92% 1.15 |
| -1.5 | 13.06% 7.66 | — | 86.92% 1.15 |
| -1.0 | 13.06% 7.66 | 12.55% 7.97 | 74.36% 1.34 |
| -0.5 | 25.61% 3.9 | — | 74.36% 1.34 |
| 0 (PK) | 25.61% 3.9 | 17.06% 5.86 | 57.31% 1.75 |
| +0.5 | 42.67% 2.34 | — | 57.31% 1.75 |
| +1.0 | 42.67% 2.34 | 18.36% 5.45 | 38.94% 2.57 |
| +1.5 | 61.03% 1.64 | — | 38.94% 2.57 |
| +2.0 | 61.03% 1.64 | 15.82% 6.32 | 23.13% 4.32 |
HOW THE MODEL WORKS
Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output
All probabilities are derived using the Poisson probability mass function, which is part of the Poisson distribution model widely used in statistics.
Limitations of the Poisson Model
While powerful, the Poisson model has limitations:
- Assumes goal events are independent
- Does not account for red cards or game state changes
- Less accurate in very low or very high xG matches
SHARE THIS TOOL
How to Use the Poisson Calculator
- Enter the expected goals (xG) for the home team
- Enter the expected goals (xG) for the away team
- Click "Calculate"
- Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions
This tool is ideal for analysts, bettors, and anyone interested in data-driven football predictions.
Why Poisson Distribution Is Useful for xG-Based Predictions
Using xG instead of historical goals allows predictions to reflect chance quality, not just past results.
Benefits include:
- Reducing randomness caused by finishing variance
- Aligning predictions with underlying performance
- Creating fair odds from statistical probabilities
- Identifying value bets by comparing model odds with bookmakers
This is why Poisson-based models are commonly used in AI football prediction systems.
Frequently Asked Questions
A Poisson calculator estimates football match score probabilities using expected goals (xG), helping predict match outcomes and related betting probabilities.
It is statistically effective for modeling goals, but works best when combined with xG data and contextual match factors.
Yes, it can be used to estimate fair odds and compare them with bookmaker prices to help identify potential value bets.
You should use pre-match expected goals based on team strength, recent performance, and opponent quality.
Yes. The calculator builds a full Correct Score (scoreline) grid from your Expected Goals (xG) inputs, so you can read each Correct Score’s probability and compare with Correct Score markets. The same “correct score prediction model” also feeds 1X2 and BTTS.
BTTS (Both Teams to Score) probability is the chance both sides score at least once. The tool reports BTTS Yes/No from the same xG-based Poisson model as Correct Score—so Expected Goals (xG), Correct Score, and BTTS stay consistent for football prediction.
