Value & decision engine
Poisson Calculator Pro
Model probabilities → fair odds → book prices → EV and ranked picks.
Mercado
Live model
Why
Poisson-style matrix with Dixon–Coles or ZIP when Auto selects them.
AI Insight
Best value found
·
TOP VALUE BETS
Best value found
Score probability matrix
100%
0%
12%+
Top 3 cells are highlighted on the grid. Click a chip to scroll to EV and focus the closest market.
Hover cells for probability and fair decimal odds.
Top 5 correct scores
By model probabilityTotal goals probability
Over linesTop outcome
🏆
—
—
Win · Draw · Lose
Local —
Empate —
Visitante —
Fair odds (1X2)
1 —
X —
2 —
Correct score matrix (table view)
| Home G | Away G | Score | Prob% | Fair dec. |
|---|
Goles (total)
| Más (O) | % | Fair | Menos (U) | % | Fair |
|---|
Main markets
| % | Dec | US | Frac | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Local | — | — | — | — |
| Empate | — | — | — | — |
| Visitante | — | — | — | — |
Doble oportunidad
| 1X | — | — |
| 12 | — | — |
| X2 | — | — |
Ambos marcan (BTTS)
| Sí | — | — |
| No | — | — |
Market summary
Probabilities & fair decimal odds1X2
1 —
X —
2 —
Totals 2.5
Más (O) —
Menos (U) —
Ambos marcan (BTTS)
Sí —
No —
EV vs bookmaker
Decimal odds · not financial adviceEnter bookmaker decimal odds. Positive EV suggests edge vs this model (not financial advice).
| Market | % | Fair | Book | EV% | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Local | — | — | — | — | |
| Empate | — | — | — | — | |
| Visitante | — | — | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Under 2.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| BTTS Yes | — | — | — | — | |
| BTTS No | — | — | — | — |
Featured odds
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Data disclaimer
Educational tool only. Probabilities use a truncated max-goals grid; model error and market efficiency are not guaranteed.
FAQ
What is xG?
Expected goals: a model-based estimate of scoring threat. Enter values from your analytics source.
What is Dixon–Coles?
A correlation adjustment for low scores (0–0, 1–1). Tune ρ carefully; invalid values are rejected by the API.
