Value & decision engine
Poisson Calculator Pro
Model probabilities → fair odds → book prices → EV and ranked picks.
Market
Live model
Why
Poisson-style matrix with Dixon–Coles or ZIP when Auto selects them.
AI Insight
Best value found
·
TOP VALUE BETS
Best value found
Score probability matrix
100%
0%
12%+
Top 3 cells are highlighted on the grid. Click a chip to scroll to EV and focus the closest market.
Hover cells for probability and fair decimal odds.
Top 5 correct scores
By model probabilityTotal goals probability
Over linesTop outcome
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—
—
Win · Draw · Lose
Home —
Draw —
Away —
Fair odds (1X2)
1 —
X —
2 —
Correct score matrix (table view)
| Home G | Away G | Score | Prob% | Fair dec. |
|---|
Total
| Over | % | Fair | Under | % | Fair |
|---|
Main markets
| % | Dec | US | Frac | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | — | — | — | — |
| Draw | — | — | — | — |
| Away | — | — | — | — |
Double Chance
| 1X | — | — |
| 12 | — | — |
| X2 | — | — |
Both to Score
| Yes | — | — |
| No | — | — |
Market summary
Probabilities & fair decimal odds1X2
1 —
X —
2 —
Totals 2.5
Over —
Under —
Both to Score
Yes —
No —
EV vs bookmaker
Decimal odds · not financial adviceEnter bookmaker decimal odds. Positive EV suggests edge vs this model (not financial advice).
| Market | % | Fair | Book | EV% | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | — | — | — | — | |
| Draw | — | — | — | — | |
| Away | — | — | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Under 2.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| BTTS Yes | — | — | — | — | |
| BTTS No | — | — | — | — |
Featured odds
Premium betting site 1xbet: New users can use the promo code 1x_3342271 to receive $100 cash.
Data disclaimer
Educational tool only. Probabilities use a truncated max-goals grid; model error and market efficiency are not guaranteed.
FAQ
What is xG?
Expected goals: a model-based estimate of scoring threat. Enter values from your analytics source.
What is Dixon–Coles?
A correlation adjustment for low scores (0–0, 1–1). Tune ρ carefully; invalid values are rejected by the API.
