The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Kilmarnock at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Kilmarnock Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Kilmarnock; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 16:44 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Kilmarnock 1.30 — Aberdeen FC 1.30
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 16:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Kilmarnock 1–1 Aberdeen FC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0583,
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"text": "-5.8%"
},
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},
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
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"sort_key": 1790.25,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
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"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/12",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -3.4%",
"alert_team": "Aberdeen FC",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.61,
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"market_prob_pct": 34.0,
"market_team": "Aberdeen FC",
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"model_team": "Kilmarnock",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Aberdeen FC, but the model still strongly favours Kilmarnock."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
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"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Aberdeen FC, but the model still strongly favours Kilmarnock."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0826,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0826,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kilmarnock at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kilmarnock as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Aberdeen FC, but the model still strongly favours Kilmarnock.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kilmarnock",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Aberdeen FC, but the model still strongly favours Kilmarnock.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Aberdeen FC, but the model still strongly favours Kilmarnock.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0583,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3396,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3663003663003663,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0396,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/12",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5833333333333334,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.8,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.61,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.61,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.4,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -3.4%",
"steam_team": "Aberdeen FC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Aberdeen FC, but the model still strongly favours Kilmarnock.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Aberdeen FC, but the model still strongly favours Kilmarnock."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Aberdeen FC, but the model still strongly favours Kilmarnock."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0826,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0826,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kilmarnock at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kilmarnock as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Aberdeen FC, but the model still strongly favours Kilmarnock.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kilmarnock",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Aberdeen FC, but the model still strongly favours Kilmarnock.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Aberdeen FC, but the model still strongly favours Kilmarnock.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0583,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3396,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3663003663003663,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0396,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Aberdeen FC, but the model still strongly favours Kilmarnock.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kilmarnock 1.30 xG vs Aberdeen FC 1.30 \u2192 Kilmarnock 35.2%",
"Market: Aberdeen FC ~34.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Aberdeen FC \u2193 -3.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Kilmarnock, but sharp money moved toward Aberdeen FC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 1.21,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Kilmarnock",
"market_prob": 33.96,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.39,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.61,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Aberdeen FC",
"market_prob": 39.78,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.14,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.34,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.14,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.66,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.57,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.07,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.57,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.93,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -4.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Aberdeen FC",
"market_prob_pct": 39.78,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Aberdeen FC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.61,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Kilmarnock",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 34.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+1.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 1.2,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+1.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Aberdeen FC, but the model still strongly favours Kilmarnock. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kilmarnock 1.30 xG vs Aberdeen FC 1.30 \u2192 Kilmarnock 35.2%",
"Market: Aberdeen FC ~34.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Aberdeen FC \u2193 -3.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Kilmarnock, but sharp money moved toward Aberdeen FC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.61,
"hero_label": "Aberdeen FC",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Aberdeen FC odds shortened \u2193 -3.4%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Aberdeen FC.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Aberdeen FC."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Aberdeen FC (\u2193 -3.4%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.61,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Aberdeen FC",
"largest_gap_pp": -4.6,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.6,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 1.21,
"edge_pp": 1.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Kilmarnock",
"market_prob_pct": 33.96,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.39,
"edge_pp": 3.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.26,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.61,
"edge_pp": -4.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Aberdeen FC",
"market_prob_pct": 39.78,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Aberdeen FC.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Aberdeen FC (34.0%).",
"Aberdeen FC has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -3.4%, 7/12).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Kilmarnock, Market \u2192 Aberdeen FC, Recent sharp money \u2192 Aberdeen FC.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 42.92,
"closing_odds": 2.33,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 42.92,
"entry_odds": 2.33,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.0
}
],
"books_total": 12,
"breadth_display": "7/12",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.3,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 26m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Aberdeen FC (3.4%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.38",
"2.34",
"2.30"
],
"display": "2.67 \u2192 2.30 \u2192 2.30",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 26m",
"pick_team": "Aberdeen FC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.67"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.30"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.38,
2.33,
2.3
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,11.2 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.30"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.38,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Aberdeen FC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.3,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.4%",
"open_odds": 2.38,
"summary": "Market moved toward Aberdeen FC while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Aberdeen FC",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/12",
"current_odds": 2.3,
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.4%",
"open_odds": 2.38,
"pick_team": "Aberdeen FC",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_team_name": "Aberdeen FC",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "aberdeen",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Aberdeen FC",
"away_team_id": 252,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/252.webp",
"away_team_name": "Aberdeen FC",
"away_team_public_id": "5Ty2AxvaQq399r",
"away_team_slug": "aberdeen",
"country_code": "GB-SCT",
"country_display_name": "Scotland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-sct.svg",
"country_id": 136,
"country_name": "Scotland",
"fixture_id": 1629022,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Scotland",
"home_team_display_name": "Kilmarnock",
"home_team_id": 250,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/250.webp",
"home_team_name": "Kilmarnock",
"home_team_public_id": "134EBEtVVDi7ZT",
"home_team_slug": "kilmarnock",
"ht.home_team_slug": "kilmarnock",
"league_country": "Scotland",
"league_country_display": "Scotland",
"league_display_name": "Copa de la Liga de Escocia",
"league_id": 185,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/185.webp",
"league_name": "Copa de la Liga de Escocia",
"league_public_id": "1XNYjN2p9wwR6I",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 16:45:00",
"public_id": "0aWOg9RVORaWDr",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Kilmarnock",
"venue_name": "Rugby Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4189,
"best_odd": 2.33,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0193,
"ev": -0.118,
"implied_prob": 0.3978,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3978,
"draw": 0.2626,
"home": 0.3396
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3785
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2848,
"best_odd": 3.53,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0096,
"ev": -0.039,
"implied_prob": 0.2626,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3978,
"draw": 0.2626,
"home": 0.3396
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2722
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4418,
"best_odd": 2.73,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0054,
"ev": -0.0583,
"implied_prob": 0.3396,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3978,
"draw": 0.2626,
"home": 0.3396
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.345
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.33,
"edge": -0.0774,
"ev": -0.1804,
"implied_prob": 0.4292,
"model_prob": 0.3518
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.53,
"edge": 0.0132,
"ev": 0.0465,
"implied_prob": 0.2833,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.73,
"edge": -0.0145,
"ev": -0.0397,
"implied_prob": 0.3663,
"model_prob": 0.3518
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1794,
"alpha_yes": 0.2466,
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.73,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0257,
"edge_yes": -0.0257,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0465,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0603,
"ev_yes": -0.0571,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0871,
"implied_no": 0.4293,
"implied_yes": 0.5707,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1794,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0061,
"ev": -0.0603,
"implied_prob": 0.4211,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4271
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2466,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0084,
"ev": -0.0871,
"implied_prob": 0.5789,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5706
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"p_final_no": 0.4271,
"p_final_yes": 0.5706,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2376,
"alpha_under": 0.216,
"best_over_odd": 1.95,
"best_under_odd": 2.09,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.74,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.035,
"edge_over": -0.0414,
"edge_under": 0.0414,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0601,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0856,
"ev_under": 0.0826,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0369,
"implied_over": 0.5234,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5391,
"implied_under": 0.4766,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4609,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2376,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.0136,
"ev": -0.0856,
"implied_prob": 0.5391,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5255
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.216,
"best_odd": 2.035,
"edge": 0.0123,
"ev": -0.0369,
"implied_prob": 0.4609,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4733
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5255,
"p_final_under": 0.4733,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0826,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0826,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0826,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.1
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Aberdeen FC, but the model still strongly favours Kilmarnock."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0826,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0826,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kilmarnock at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kilmarnock as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Aberdeen FC, but the model still strongly favours Kilmarnock.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kilmarnock",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Aberdeen FC, but the model still strongly favours Kilmarnock.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Aberdeen FC, but the model still strongly favours Kilmarnock.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0583,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3396,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3663003663003663,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0396,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
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"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
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},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
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"markets": {
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},
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},
"p_final": 0.4271,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0603,
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},
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},
"ou_2_5": {
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"over": {
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},
"p_final": 0.4733,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"under": {
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},
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}
},
"match_id": 1629022,
"match_regime": {
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"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0826,
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"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
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"probabilities": {
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"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
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],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Aberdeen FC",
"home": "Kilmarnock"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0826,
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0583,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3396,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3663003663003663,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0396,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1629022,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T16:44:30.955945+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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