AI correctly predicted the Corea del Sur win.
The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
B-
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Corea del Sur Corea del Sur ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Corea del Sur win 3–0).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Corea del Sur 1.32 — Ecuador 1.28
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Corea del Sur win · 3–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Corea del Sur win · Corea del Sur 3–0 Ecuador
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
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"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1158,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.6,
"text": "-11.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4411,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0077,
"max_ev_display": {
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"text": "+0.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.0 percentage points",
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"raw_signal_ev": -0.2205,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.1%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Corea del Sur",
"sort_key": 5206.16,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -8.2%",
"alert_team": "Corea del Sur",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.0,
"hero_label": "Corea del Sur",
"market_prob_pct": 44.1,
"market_team": "Corea del Sur",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Corea del Sur",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 8.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Corea del Sur)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Corea del Sur)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0941,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1539,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Corea del Sur at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Corea del Sur as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Corea del Sur",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Corea del Sur \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.39 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1628994 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.39 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Corea del Sur).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1158,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4411,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4629629629629629,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2205,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "6/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.7,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 85,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.0,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -8.2%",
"steam_team": "Corea del Sur",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Corea del Sur).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Corea del Sur)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Corea del Sur)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0941,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1539,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Corea del Sur at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Corea del Sur as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Corea del Sur",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Corea del Sur \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.39 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1628994 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.39 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Corea del Sur).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1158,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4411,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4629629629629629,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2205,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Corea del Sur 1.32 xG vs Ecuador 1.28 \u2192 Corea del Sur 36.1%",
"Market: Corea del Sur ~44.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Corea del Sur \u2193 -8.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Corea del Sur with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.0,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Corea del Sur",
"market_prob": 44.11,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.03,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.97,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Ecuador",
"market_prob": 28.27,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.2,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.0,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.2,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.0,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.04,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.46,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.04,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.54,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.0,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Corea del Sur",
"market_prob_pct": 44.11,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Corea del Sur"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Corea del Sur\u0027s win probability at 44.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 8.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Corea del Sur",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-8.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -8.0,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-8.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -8.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 85,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Corea del Sur \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Corea del Sur 1.32 xG vs Ecuador 1.28 \u2192 Corea del Sur 36.1%",
"Market: Corea del Sur ~44.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Corea del Sur \u2193 -8.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Corea del Sur with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.0,
"hero_label": "Corea del Sur",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Corea del Sur odds shortened \u2193 -8.2%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Corea del Sur. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Corea del Sur.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Corea del Sur. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Corea del Sur."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Corea del Sur above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Corea del Sur (\u2193 -8.2%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Corea del Sur",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices Corea del Sur higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.0,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.0,
"edge_pp": -8.0,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Corea del Sur",
"market_prob_pct": 44.11,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.03,
"edge_pp": 2.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.62,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.97,
"edge_pp": 5.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ecuador",
"market_prob_pct": 28.27,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Corea del Sur.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Corea del Sur (44.1%).",
"However, Corea del Sur has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -8.2%, 6/9).",
"Corea del Sur \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.3,
"closing_odds": 2.16,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.3,
"entry_odds": 2.16,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.5
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "6/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 8.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 27h 48m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Corea del Sur (8.2%, 6/9) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.45",
"2.31",
"2.16"
],
"display": "2.57 \u2192 2.23 \u2192 2.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 27h 48m",
"pick_team": "Corea del Sur",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.57"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.23"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.45,
2.16,
2.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,12.4",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.16"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.45,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 6/9 sportsbooks on Corea del Sur",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Corea del Sur",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.25,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.2%",
"open_odds": 2.45,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Corea del Sur",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/9",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.2%",
"open_odds": 2.45,
"pick_team": "Corea del Sur",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_team_name": "Corea del Sur",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "ecuador",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Ecuador",
"away_team_id": 2382,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2382.webp",
"away_team_name": "Ecuador",
"away_team_public_id": "3CgoPZoLZvrUzx",
"away_team_slug": "ecuador",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1628994,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "South-Korea",
"home_team_display_name": "Corea del Sur",
"home_team_id": 17,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/17.webp",
"home_team_name": "Corea del Sur",
"home_team_public_id": "0emuN0ys3jBD1X",
"home_team_slug": "south-korea",
"ht.home_team_slug": "south-korea",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Amistosos",
"league_id": 10,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/10.webp",
"league_name": "Amistosos",
"league_public_id": "3Ezk9HpSM4hKk0",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-24 11:00:00",
"public_id": "0kthmQ2QpoInvj",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Suwon",
"venue_name": "Suwon World Cup Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2731,
"best_odd": 3.37,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0163,
"ev": 0.0077,
"implied_prob": 0.2827,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2827,
"draw": 0.2762,
"home": 0.4411
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.299
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2908,
"best_odd": 3.45,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.006,
"ev": -0.0266,
"implied_prob": 0.2762,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2827,
"draw": 0.2762,
"home": 0.4411
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2821
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3959,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0317,
"ev": -0.1158,
"implied_prob": 0.4411,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2827,
"draw": 0.2762,
"home": 0.4411
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.4094
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.37,
"edge": 0.0457,
"ev": 0.1539,
"implied_prob": 0.2967,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.45,
"edge": 0.0068,
"ev": 0.0235,
"implied_prob": 0.2899,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": -0.102,
"ev": -0.2204,
"implied_prob": 0.463,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2105,
"alpha_yes": 0.2105,
"best_no_odd": 2.0,
"best_yes_odd": 1.86,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0404,
"edge_yes": 0.0404,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.09,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0979,
"ev_yes": 0.0137,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0647,
"implied_no": 0.4954,
"implied_yes": 0.5046,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2105,
"best_odd": 1.845,
"edge": -0.009,
"ev": -0.0979,
"implied_prob": 0.498,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4889
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2105,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.009,
"ev": -0.0647,
"implied_prob": 0.502,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5111
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4889,
"p_final_yes": 0.5111,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2111,
"alpha_under": 0.2322,
"best_over_odd": 2.27,
"best_under_odd": 1.73,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.145,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.69,
"edge_over": 0.042,
"edge_under": -0.042,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0941,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.036,
"ev_under": -0.1039,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.071,
"implied_over": 0.44,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4407,
"implied_under": 0.56,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5593,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"best_odd": 2.145,
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.036,
"implied_prob": 0.4407,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4494
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2322,
"best_odd": 1.69,
"edge": -0.0096,
"ev": -0.071,
"implied_prob": 0.5593,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5497
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4494,
"p_final_under": 0.5497,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0941,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1539,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0941,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.2
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Corea del Sur)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0941,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1539,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Corea del Sur at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Corea del Sur as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Corea del Sur",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Corea del Sur \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.39 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1628994 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.39 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Corea del Sur).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1158,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4411,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4629629629629629,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2205,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0317,
"ev": -0.1158,
"implied_prob": 0.4411,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Corea del Sur"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2105,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"edge": 0.009,
"market_prob": 0.502,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2105,
"best_odd": 1.845,
"edge": -0.009,
"ev": -0.0979,
"implied_prob": 0.498,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4889
},
"p_final": 0.5111,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0647,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2105,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.009,
"ev": -0.0647,
"implied_prob": 0.502,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5111
}
},
"edge": 0.0404,
"ev": 0.0137,
"implied_prob": 0.5046,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.145,
"edge": 0.0087,
"market_prob": 0.4407,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"best_odd": 2.145,
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.036,
"implied_prob": 0.4407,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4494
},
"p_final": 0.4494,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.036,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2322,
"best_odd": 1.69,
"edge": -0.0096,
"ev": -0.071,
"implied_prob": 0.5593,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5497
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.042,
"ev": 0.0941,
"implied_prob": 0.44,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1628994,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0941,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Ecuador",
"home": "Corea del Sur"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031749,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0941,
"implied_prob": 0.44,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1158,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4411,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4629629629629629,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2205,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1628994,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-24T10:59:06.440914+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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