The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Hapoel Mahane Yehuda at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Hapoel Mahane Yehuda Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Hapoel Mahane Yehuda; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 14:14 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 1.27 — Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 1.33
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 14:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 1–1 Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"api_prediction": {
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},
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
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},
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{
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],
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{
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},
{
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],
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"capped": false,
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"capped": false,
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"featured": true,
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},
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
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"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0132,
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},
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"sort_key": 5210.56,
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},
{
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"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2394,
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"edge": -0.0052,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.001,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.1,
"text": "+0.1%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1062,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.6,
"text": "-10.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 5200.8,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +17.1%",
"alert_team": "Hapoel Mahane Yehuda",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 24.6,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -24.61,
"hero_label": "Hapoel Ramat HaSharon",
"market_prob_pct": 18.6,
"market_team": "Hapoel Ramat HaSharon",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Hapoel Mahane Yehuda",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 75,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 24.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 24.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Hapoel Mahane Yehuda, but the model still strongly favours Hapoel Mahane Yehuda."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 24.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 24.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Hapoel Mahane Yehuda, but the model still strongly favours Hapoel Mahane Yehuda."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7494,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 14,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hapoel Mahane Yehuda at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 18.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hapoel Mahane Yehuda as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 18.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Hapoel Mahane Yehuda, but the model still strongly favours Hapoel Mahane Yehuda.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hapoel Mahane Yehuda",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Hapoel Mahane Yehuda \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.38 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +75% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1621601 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.38 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +16.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "14 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Hapoel Mahane Yehuda, but the model still strongly favours Hapoel Mahane Yehuda.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +75% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0132,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.3%",
"consensus_odds": 4.78,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1857,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.20920502092050208,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7495,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+75.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "7/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7777777777777778,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (25 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 12.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 51,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 24.61,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 24.61,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.33,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.27,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.27 \u00b7 Away xG 1.33 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +17.1%",
"steam_team": "Hapoel Mahane Yehuda",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 3,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 3,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Hapoel Mahane Yehuda, but the model still strongly favours Hapoel Mahane Yehuda.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 24.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 24.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Hapoel Mahane Yehuda, but the model still strongly favours Hapoel Mahane Yehuda."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 24.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 24.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Hapoel Mahane Yehuda, but the model still strongly favours Hapoel Mahane Yehuda."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7494,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 14,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hapoel Mahane Yehuda at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 18.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hapoel Mahane Yehuda as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 18.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Hapoel Mahane Yehuda, but the model still strongly favours Hapoel Mahane Yehuda.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hapoel Mahane Yehuda",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Hapoel Mahane Yehuda \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.38 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +75% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1621601 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.38 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +16.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "14 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Hapoel Mahane Yehuda, but the model still strongly favours Hapoel Mahane Yehuda.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +75% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0132,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.3%",
"consensus_odds": 4.78,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1857,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.20920502092050208,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7495,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+75.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 1.27 xG vs Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 1.33 \u2192 Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 36.6%",
"Market: Hapoel Ramat HaSharon ~18.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Hapoel Mahane Yehuda odds \u2191 +17.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Hapoel Mahane Yehuda, but the market has moved away from Hapoel Mahane Yehuda.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -24.61,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Hapoel Ramat HaSharon",
"market_prob": 58.38,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.59,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.05,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 18.02,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Hapoel Mahane Yehuda",
"market_prob": 18.57,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.18,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.38,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.18,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.62,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.67,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.17,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.67,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.83,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -24.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Hapoel Ramat HaSharon",
"market_prob_pct": 58.38,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Hapoel Mahane Yehuda"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Hapoel Ramat HaSharon\u0027s win probability at 58.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 24.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 24.61,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Hapoel Mahane Yehuda",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 18.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+18.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 18.0,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+18.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 18.0,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 51,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Hapoel Mahane Yehuda, but the model still strongly favours Hapoel Mahane Yehuda. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 3,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 3,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 1.27 xG vs Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 1.33 \u2192 Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 36.6%",
"Market: Hapoel Ramat HaSharon ~18.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Hapoel Mahane Yehuda odds \u2191 +17.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Hapoel Mahane Yehuda, but the market has moved away from Hapoel Mahane Yehuda.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -24.61,
"hero_label": "Hapoel Ramat HaSharon",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Hapoel Mahane Yehuda odds lengthened \u2191 +17.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 24.61,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Hapoel Ramat HaSharon",
"largest_gap_pp": -24.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices Hapoel Ramat HaSharon higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 24.6,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -24.61,
"edge_pp": -24.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Hapoel Ramat HaSharon",
"market_prob_pct": 58.38,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.59,
"edge_pp": 6.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.05,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 18.02,
"edge_pp": 18.02,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Hapoel Mahane Yehuda",
"market_prob_pct": 18.57,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Hapoel Ramat HaSharon (18.6%).",
"However, Hapoel Mahane Yehuda has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +17.1%, 7/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Hapoel Mahane Yehuda, Market \u2192 Hapoel Ramat HaSharon, while Hapoel Mahane Yehuda odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 65.79,
"closing_odds": 1.52,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 65.79,
"entry_odds": 1.52,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +84.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 84.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +66.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 66.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +66.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 66.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +62.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 62.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +35.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 35.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +30.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 30.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.1
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.1,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +17.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 17.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h 3m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"7/9 books lengthened Hapoel Mahane Yehuda together (17.1% drift, score 75) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.78",
"4.14",
"3.50"
],
"display": "5.22 \u2192 2.45 \u2192 4.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h 3m",
"pick_team": "Hapoel Mahane Yehuda",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.22"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.5,
4.78,
4.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,9.6",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.78"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.5,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Hapoel Mahane Yehuda odds \u2191 +17.1% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Hapoel Mahane Yehuda",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Hapoel Mahane Yehuda odds \u2191 +17.1% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.1,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +17.1%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"summary": "Market moved away from Hapoel Mahane Yehuda while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Hapoel Mahane Yehuda",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 75,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"current_odds": 4.1,
"move_display": "\u2191 +17.1%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"pick_team": "Hapoel Mahane Yehuda",
"steam_score": 75,
"steam_team_name": "Hapoel Mahane Yehuda",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 24.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "hapoel-mahane-yehuda",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Hapoel Mahane Yehuda",
"away_team_id": 6163,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6163.webp",
"away_team_name": "Hapoel Mahane Yehuda",
"away_team_public_id": "1cy9FhXnZ9VaeQ",
"away_team_slug": "hapoel-mahane-yehuda",
"country_code": "IL",
"country_display_name": "Israel",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/il.svg",
"country_id": 78,
"country_name": "Israel",
"fixture_id": 1621601,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Israel",
"home_team_display_name": "Hapoel Ramat HaSharon",
"home_team_id": 4490,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4490.webp",
"home_team_name": "Hapoel Ramat HaSharon",
"home_team_public_id": "2wlaqi5L8MkpAt",
"home_team_slug": "hapoel-ramat-hasharon",
"ht.home_team_slug": "hapoel-ramat-hasharon",
"league_country": "Israel",
"league_country_display": "Israel",
"league_display_name": "Liga Alef",
"league_id": 496,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/496.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Alef",
"league_public_id": "5uA9dViy0RGzXZ",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-09 14:15:00",
"public_id": "3xjwfafO6JF4Sq",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1459,
"best_odd": 4.78,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0263,
"ev": 0.0132,
"implied_prob": 0.1857,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1857,
"draw": 0.2305,
"home": 0.5838
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.212
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2703,
"best_odd": 3.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.0439,
"implied_prob": 0.2305,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1857,
"draw": 0.2305,
"home": 0.5838
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2483
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3783,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0932,
"ev": -0.2542,
"implied_prob": 0.5838,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1857,
"draw": 0.2305,
"home": 0.5838
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.4907
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.78,
"edge": 0.1568,
"ev": 0.7494,
"implied_prob": 0.2092,
"model_prob": 0.366
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.85,
"edge": 0.0367,
"ev": 0.1414,
"implied_prob": 0.2597,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.3204,
"ev": -0.4869,
"implied_prob": 0.6579,
"model_prob": 0.3375
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2176,
"alpha_yes": 0.2394,
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.64,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0167,
"edge_yes": -0.0167,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.001,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0716,
"ev_yes": -0.1062,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0902,
"implied_no": 0.4383,
"implied_yes": 0.5617,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2176,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0048,
"ev": -0.0716,
"implied_prob": 0.4332,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4379
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2394,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0052,
"ev": -0.0902,
"implied_prob": 0.5668,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5616
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4379,
"p_final_yes": 0.5616,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.214,
"alpha_under": 0.1946,
"best_over_odd": 1.7,
"best_under_odd": 2.25,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.57,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.1,
"edge_over": -0.0818,
"edge_under": 0.0818,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1806,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1319,
"ev_under": 0.1655,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0648,
"implied_over": 0.5638,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5722,
"implied_under": 0.4362,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4278,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.214,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0193,
"ev": -0.1319,
"implied_prob": 0.5722,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5529
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1946,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0176,
"ev": -0.0648,
"implied_prob": 0.4278,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4453
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5529,
"p_final_under": 0.4453,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7494,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 6.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 24.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 24.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Hapoel Mahane Yehuda, but the model still strongly favours Hapoel Mahane Yehuda."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7494,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 14,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hapoel Mahane Yehuda at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 18.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hapoel Mahane Yehuda as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 18.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Hapoel Mahane Yehuda, but the model still strongly favours Hapoel Mahane Yehuda.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hapoel Mahane Yehuda",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Hapoel Mahane Yehuda \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.38 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +75% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1621601 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.38 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +16.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "14 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Hapoel Mahane Yehuda, but the model still strongly favours Hapoel Mahane Yehuda.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +75% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0132,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.3%",
"consensus_odds": 4.78,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1857,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.20920502092050208,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7495,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+75.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.78,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0263,
"ev": 0.0132,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.1857,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Hapoel Mahane Yehuda"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2176,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0048,
"market_prob": 0.4332,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2176,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0048,
"ev": -0.0716,
"implied_prob": 0.4332,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4379
},
"p_final": 0.4379,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0716,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2394,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0052,
"ev": -0.0902,
"implied_prob": 0.5668,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5616
}
},
"edge": 0.0167,
"ev": 0.001,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4383,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1946,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0176,
"market_prob": 0.4278,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.214,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0193,
"ev": -0.1319,
"implied_prob": 0.5722,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5529
},
"p_final": 0.4453,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0648,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1946,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0176,
"ev": -0.0648,
"implied_prob": 0.4278,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4453
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0818,
"ev": 0.1655,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4362,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1621601,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1655,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.366,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3375
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Hapoel Mahane Yehuda",
"home": "Hapoel Ramat HaSharon"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.06001,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1655,
"implied_prob": 0.4362,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0132,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.3%",
"consensus_odds": 4.78,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1857,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.20920502092050208,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7495,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+75.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1621601,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-09T14:14:07.016929+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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