The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Carlisle at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Carlisle Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Carlisle 1.35 — Southend 1.25
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Carlisle 2–2 Southend
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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National League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 32 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 25 |
| 3 | Southend | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 24 |
| 4 | Yeovil Town | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 5 | Worthing | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 21 |
| 6 | Altrincham | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 21 |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| 8 | Kidderminster Harriers | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 19 |
| 9 | Barrow | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 10 | Aldershot Town | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 11 | Sutton Utd | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 12 | AFC Hornchurch | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 18 |
| 13 | FC Halifax Town | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 14 | Carlisle | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 15 | Woking | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 16 | Forest Green | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 17 | Eastleigh | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 18 | Tamworth | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 19 | Wealdstone | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
| 20 | Boston United | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
| 21 | Scunthorpe | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 22 | Hartlepool | 12 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 7 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 12 | 32 | 13 | +19 | 32 |
| 2 | Southend | 12 | 29 | 18 | +11 | 24 |
| 3 | Harrogate Town | 12 | 28 | 17 | +11 | 25 |
| 4 | Yeovil Town | 12 | 26 | 15 | +11 | 22 |
| 5 | Carlisle | 12 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 | Worthing | 12 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 21 |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 12 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 20 |
| 8 | Barrow | 12 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 18 |
| 9 | Woking | 12 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 | Tamworth | 12 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 14 |
| 11 | FC Halifax Town | 12 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 17 |
| 12 | Aldershot Town | 12 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 18 |
| 13 | Altrincham | 12 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 | Forest Green | 11 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 15 |
| 15 | Wealdstone | 12 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 12 |
| 16 | Kidderminster Harriers | 12 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 19 |
| 17 | Scunthorpe | 11 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 10 |
| 18 | Sutton Utd | 12 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 18 |
| 19 | Eastleigh | 12 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 15 |
| 20 | Boston United | 12 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 12 |
| 21 | AFC Hornchurch | 12 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 18 |
| 22 | Solihull Moors | 12 | 13 | 30 | -17 | 7 |
| 23 | Hartlepool | 12 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 9 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 12 | 7 | 27 | -20 | 4 |
