Predictions / Football / Germany. Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein / Holstein Kiel II vs Phönix L. II

Prediction Audit: Holstein Kiel II vs Phönix L. II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Holstein Kiel II Holstein Kiel II
Aug 08, 2026 - 12:00
3 1.57
4 1.03
xG Accuracy: 30%
Phönix L. II Phönix L. II

The model missed the final outcome (Phönix L. II win 3–4).

The model had projected Holstein Kiel II at 48.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Holstein Kiel II Phönix L. II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 3-4 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Holstein Kiel II; match finished Phönix L. II

Market lesson

The full-time result was Phönix L. II win 3–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 02, 2026 · 01:26 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Holstein Kiel II 1.57 — Phönix L. II 1.03
  2. Aug 08, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Phönix L. II win · 3–4
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 01:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2813818

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Phönix L. II win · Holstein Kiel II 3–4 Phönix L. II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein
  • Fixture: Holstein Kiel II vs Phönix L. II
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-08 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 48.3% · Draw 28.4% · Away 23.3%
  • xG (showing): Holstein Kiel II 1.57 — Phönix L. II 1.03 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 52.5% · No 47.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 52.5% · No 47.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.0%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Holstein Kiel II 11 8 2 1 26
2 VfR Neumünster 11 7 3 1 24
3 Kilia Kiel 12 7 3 2 24
4 Rotenhof 12 6 4 2 22
5 TSB Flensburg 11 6 2 3 20
6 Rapid Lubeck 12 6 1 5 19
7 Oldenburger SV 11 5 2 4 17
8 Heider SV 12 5 2 5 17
9 Union Neumünster 12 4 4 4 16
10 SV Eichede 11 3 4 4 13
11 Phönix L. II 12 3 4 5 13
12 Nordmark Satrup 12 3 2 7 11
13 Hohenwestedt 12 2 4 6 10
14 Lübeck II 12 3 1 8 10
15 Eckernförder SV 11 3 0 8 9
16 Kaltenkirchen 12 2 2 8 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Holstein Kiel II 11 40 15 +25 26
2 TSB Flensburg 11 32 15 +17 20
3 Kilia Kiel 12 32 19 +13 24
4 VfR Neumünster 11 30 15 +15 24
5 Oldenburger SV 11 30 24 +6 17
6 Rotenhof 12 27 21 +6 22
7 Rapid Lubeck 12 26 28 -2 19
8 Phönix L. II 12 26 30 -4 13
9 Union Neumünster 12 25 25 0 16
10 Hohenwestedt 12 21 30 -9 10
11 Heider SV 12 21 31 -10 17
12 Eckernförder SV 11 19 34 -15 9
13 SV Eichede 11 18 14 +4 13
14 Kaltenkirchen 12 18 36 -18 8
15 Lübeck II 12 17 32 -15 10
16 Nordmark Satrup 12 14 27 -13 11
Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein Germany. Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein Predictions