AI correctly predicted the Castellonense win.
The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
B-
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Castellonense Castellonense ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Castellonense win 3–0).
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 09:44 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Castellonense 1.32 — Real Murcia II 1.28
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 09:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Castellonense win · 3–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Castellonense win · Castellonense 3–0 Real Murcia II
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón II | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 2 | La Nucía | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Castellonense | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Alcoyano | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Ucam Murcia | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Intercity | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 | Cieza | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Deportiva Minera | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Yeclano | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Elche II | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | Orihuela | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 12 | Lorca Deportiva | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 13 | Mallorca II | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 14 | Atlético Baleares | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 15 | Valencia II | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 16 | Poblense | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 17 | Real Murcia II | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 18 | Peña Deportiva | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón II | 5 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 | Ucam Murcia | 5 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 9 |
| 3 | La Nucía | 5 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 12 |
| 4 | Castellonense | 5 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 12 |
| 5 | Cieza | 5 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 8 |
| 6 | Intercity | 5 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 9 |
| 7 | Elche II | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Alcoyano | 5 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 10 |
| 9 | Atlético Baleares | 5 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 5 |
| 10 | Orihuela | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 |
| 11 | Valencia II | 6 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 12 | Deportiva Minera | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 8 |
| 13 | Yeclano | 5 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 8 |
| 14 | Real Murcia II | 5 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 |
| 15 | Lorca Deportiva | 5 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 | Poblense | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3 |
| 17 | Peña Deportiva | 5 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
| 18 | Mallorca II | 5 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 5 |
