Predictions / Football / Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 / Real Murcia II vs Mallorca II

Prediction Audit: Real Murcia II vs Mallorca II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Real Murcia II Real Murcia II
Sep 20, 2026 - 10:00
0 1.43
1 1.17
xG Accuracy: 64%
Mallorca II Mallorca II

The model missed the final outcome (Mallorca II win 0–1).

The model had projected Real Murcia II at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Real Murcia II Mallorca II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Mallorca II win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 20, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Real Murcia II 1.43 — Mallorca II 1.17
  2. Sep 20, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Mallorca II win · 0–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8660484

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Mallorca II win · Real Murcia II 0–1 Mallorca II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Segunda División RFEF - Group 3
  • Fixture: Real Murcia II vs Mallorca II
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.3%
  • xG (showing): Real Murcia II 1.43 — Mallorca II 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Castellón II 5 4 0 1 12
2 La Nucía 5 4 0 1 12
3 Castellonense 5 4 0 1 12
4 Alcoyano 5 3 1 1 10
5 Ucam Murcia 5 3 0 2 9
6 Intercity 5 2 3 0 9
7 Cieza 5 2 2 1 8
8 Deportiva Minera 5 2 2 1 8
9 Yeclano 5 2 2 1 8
10 Elche II 6 2 1 3 7
11 Orihuela 5 2 1 2 7
12 Lorca Deportiva 5 1 2 2 5
13 Mallorca II 5 1 2 2 5
14 Atlético Baleares 5 1 2 2 5
15 Valencia II 6 1 1 4 4
16 Poblense 5 1 0 4 3
17 Real Murcia II 5 1 0 4 3
18 Peña Deportiva 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Castellón II 5 12 5 +7 12
2 Ucam Murcia 5 12 6 +6 9
3 La Nucía 5 9 3 +6 12
4 Castellonense 5 8 3 +5 12
5 Cieza 5 7 3 +4 8
6 Intercity 5 7 5 +2 9
7 Elche II 6 7 9 -2 7
8 Alcoyano 5 6 4 +2 10
9 Atlético Baleares 5 6 9 -3 5
10 Orihuela 5 6 11 -5 7
11 Valencia II 6 6 11 -5 4
12 Deportiva Minera 5 5 4 +1 8
13 Yeclano 5 4 3 +1 8
14 Real Murcia II 5 4 11 -7 3
15 Lorca Deportiva 5 3 4 -1 5
16 Poblense 5 3 7 -4 3
17 Peña Deportiva 5 3 8 -5 1
18 Mallorca II 5 2 4 -2 5
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Predictions