The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Heart of Midlothian at 65.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Heart of Midlothian Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 0-2, 1-2, 0-1, 1-1, 0-3 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 16:44 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Kilmarnock 0.93 — Heart of Midlothian 2.22
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 16:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
51/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
- High xG deviation from league baseline (64%+)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Strong model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
53/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Kilmarnock 1–1 Heart of Midlothian
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
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"facts": {
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"api_prediction": {
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"percent_away": "50%",
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},
"away_xg": 2.22,
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"confidence": 65.5,
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"edge": 0.1088,
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"reason": "",
"selection": "away",
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},
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{
"affi_link": "",
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],
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}
},
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"away_expected": 2.22,
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{
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{
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"prob": 9.8
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{
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{
"away": 1,
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{
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}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Kilmarnock or Draw",
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},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Kilmarnock or Heart of Midlothian",
"prob": 78.8
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Heart of Midlothian",
"prob": 86.7
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
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"pick_prob": 86.7
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 21.2,
"home_pct": 13.3,
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"lean_label": "Heart of Midlothian"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 3.15,
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"pick": "Over 2.5",
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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"label": "Away",
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 16:44:10",
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"has_data": true,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
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{
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{
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},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "1-1",
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},
{
"label": "0-3",
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}
]
},
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"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Heart of Midlothian, but the model still strongly favours Heart of Midlothian.",
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"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
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},
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},
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{
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},
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"alpha": 0.569,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
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},
"ev_yes": -0.0908,
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},
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},
{
"decision": "lean",
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"alpha": 0.5867,
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"edge": 0.0127,
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"alpha": 0.5867,
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},
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"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0623,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4267,
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"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.1027,
"implied_prob": 0.4116,
"model_prob": 0.39,
"p_final": 0.4024
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0118,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.2,
"text": "-1.2%"
},
"ev_under": -0.0445,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.5,
"text": "-4.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": -0.0118,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 61.0,
"sort_key": 1797.05,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"under_prob": 39.0,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 811.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-2",
"top_prob": 10.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"alert_team": "Heart of Midlothian",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.91,
"hero_label": "Heart of Midlothian",
"market_prob_pct": 54.6,
"market_team": "Heart of Midlothian",
"model_prob_pct": 65.5,
"model_team": "Heart of Midlothian",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Heart of Midlothian, but the model still strongly favours Heart of Midlothian."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Heart of Midlothian, but the model still strongly favours Heart of Midlothian."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1001,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1585,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Heart of Midlothian at 65.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Heart of Midlothian as the value side (65.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Heart of Midlothian, but the model still strongly favours Heart of Midlothian.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Heart of Midlothian",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Heart of Midlothian \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.77 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +16% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1556666 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.77 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +10.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Heart of Midlothian, but the model still strongly favours Heart of Midlothian.",
"Decision strength: 4.1/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +16% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Heart of Midlothian, but the model still strongly favours Heart of Midlothian.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0625,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.77,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5457,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6545,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5649717514124294,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1585,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 64.4,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 64%",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.29"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.29
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6,
"evidence": {
"score": 82,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (64%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 51,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.91,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.91,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 2.22,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 64.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 0.93,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.22,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 0.93 \u00b7 Away xG 2.22 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +64%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"steam_team": "Heart of Midlothian",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 65,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Heart of Midlothian, but the model still strongly favours Heart of Midlothian.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Heart of Midlothian, but the model still strongly favours Heart of Midlothian."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Heart of Midlothian, but the model still strongly favours Heart of Midlothian."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1001,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1585,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Heart of Midlothian at 65.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Heart of Midlothian as the value side (65.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Heart of Midlothian, but the model still strongly favours Heart of Midlothian.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Heart of Midlothian",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Heart of Midlothian \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.77 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +16% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1556666 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.77 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +10.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Heart of Midlothian, but the model still strongly favours Heart of Midlothian.",
"Decision strength: 4.1/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +16% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Heart of Midlothian, but the model still strongly favours Heart of Midlothian.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0625,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.77,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5457,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6545,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5649717514124294,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1585,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 64.4,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 64%",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.29"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.29
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Heart of Midlothian, but the model still strongly favours Heart of Midlothian.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kilmarnock 0.93 xG vs Heart of Midlothian 2.22 \u2192 Heart of Midlothian 65.5%",
"Market: Heart of Midlothian ~54.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Heart of Midlothian odds \u2191 +4.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Heart of Midlothian, but the market has moved away from Heart of Midlothian.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.38,
"fair_prob": 13.32,
"label": "Kilmarnock",
"market_prob": 21.7,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.54,
"fair_prob": 21.19,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.73,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.91,
"fair_prob": 65.48,
"label": "Heart of Midlothian",
"market_prob": 54.57,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.65,
"fair_prob": 61.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.35,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.65,
"fair_prob": 39.0,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.65,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.94,
"fair_prob": 55.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.04,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.94,
"fair_prob": 44.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.96,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 10.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 65.48,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Heart of Midlothian",
"market_prob_pct": 54.57,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Heart of Midlothian"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Heart of Midlothian\u0027s win probability at 65.5%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 54.6%, a difference of 10.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 10.91,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "Heart of Midlothian",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 54.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+10.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 10.9,
"model_prob_pct": 65.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+10.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 51,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Heart of Midlothian, but the model still strongly favours Heart of Midlothian. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 65,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kilmarnock 0.93 xG vs Heart of Midlothian 2.22 \u2192 Heart of Midlothian 65.5%",
"Market: Heart of Midlothian ~54.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Heart of Midlothian odds \u2191 +4.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Heart of Midlothian, but the market has moved away from Heart of Midlothian.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.91,
"hero_label": "Heart of Midlothian",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Heart of Midlothian odds lengthened \u2191 +4.8%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Heart of Midlothian.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Heart of Midlothian.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Heart of Midlothian.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Heart of Midlothian."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Heart of Midlothian more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Heart of Midlothian (\u2191 +4.8%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.91,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 44.3 pp (at 65.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 44.3,
"max_prob_pct": 65.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Heart of Midlothian",
"largest_gap_pp": 10.9,
"lead": "The model rates Heart of Midlothian considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.38,
"edge_pp": -8.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 13.32,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Kilmarnock",
"market_prob_pct": 21.7,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.54,
"edge_pp": -2.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 21.19,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.73,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 10.91,
"edge_pp": 10.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 65.48,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Heart of Midlothian",
"market_prob_pct": 54.57,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Heart of Midlothian.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Heart of Midlothian (54.6%).",
"Heart of Midlothian odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.8%, 6/10) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Heart of Midlothian, Market \u2192 Heart of Midlothian, while Heart of Midlothian odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 56.5,
"closing_odds": 1.77,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 56.5,
"entry_odds": 1.77,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.4
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "6/10",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 1.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 237h 10m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Heart of Midlothian (4.8%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"1.77",
"1.72",
"1.67"
],
"display": "1.77 \u2192 1.58 \u2192 1.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 237h 10m",
"pick_team": "Heart of Midlothian",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.77"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.58"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.67,
1.77,
1.72,
1.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,9.0 56.0,3.6",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.67"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.67"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "1.77"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.67,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 6/10 sportsbooks on Heart of Midlothian",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Heart of Midlothian",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 1.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"open_odds": 1.67,
"summary": "Market moved away from Heart of Midlothian while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Heart of Midlothian",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/10",
"current_odds": 1.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"open_odds": 1.67,
"pick_team": "Heart of Midlothian",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_team_name": "Heart of Midlothian",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "heart-of-midlothian",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Heart of Midlothian",
"away_team_id": 254,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/254.webp",
"away_team_name": "Heart of Midlothian",
"away_team_public_id": "2rklOduBhdIObN",
"away_team_slug": "heart-of-midlothian",
"country_code": "GB-SCT",
"country_display_name": "Scotland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-sct.svg",
"country_id": 136,
"country_name": "Scotland",
"fixture_id": 1556666,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Scotland",
"home_team_display_name": "Kilmarnock",
"home_team_id": 250,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/250.webp",
"home_team_name": "Kilmarnock",
"home_team_public_id": "134EBEtVVDi7ZT",
"home_team_slug": "kilmarnock",
"ht.home_team_slug": "kilmarnock",
"league_country": "Scotland",
"league_country_display": "Scotland",
"league_display_name": "Premiership de Escocia",
"league_id": 179,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/179.webp",
"league_name": "Premiership de Escocia",
"league_public_id": "1PKN7lXDD29LSy",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 16:45:00",
"public_id": "0z2aTHXh5D469x",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Kilmarnock",
"venue_name": "The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.502,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0546,
"ev": 0.0625,
"implied_prob": 0.5457,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5457,
"draw": 0.2373,
"home": 0.217
},
"model_prob": 0.6545,
"p_final": 0.6003
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1925,
"best_odd": 4.07,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0048,
"ev": -0.0539,
"implied_prob": 0.2373,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5457,
"draw": 0.2373,
"home": 0.217
},
"model_prob": 0.2122,
"p_final": 0.2325
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1749,
"best_odd": 4.45,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0146,
"ev": -0.0993,
"implied_prob": 0.217,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5457,
"draw": 0.2373,
"home": 0.217
},
"model_prob": 0.1333,
"p_final": 0.2024
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": 0.0895,
"ev": 0.1585,
"implied_prob": 0.565,
"model_prob": 0.6545
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.07,
"edge": -0.0335,
"ev": -0.1365,
"implied_prob": 0.2457,
"model_prob": 0.2122
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.45,
"edge": -0.0914,
"ev": -0.4066,
"implied_prob": 0.2247,
"model_prob": 0.1333
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.4138,
"alpha_yes": 0.569,
"best_no_odd": 2.45,
"best_yes_odd": 1.65,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0394,
"edge_yes": -0.0394,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1001,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.044,
"ev_yes": -0.0908,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1185,
"implied_no": 0.4096,
"implied_yes": 0.5904,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4138,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.017,
"ev": -0.044,
"implied_prob": 0.4079,
"model_prob": 0.449,
"p_final": 0.4249
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.569,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0234,
"ev": -0.1185,
"implied_prob": 0.5921,
"model_prob": 0.551,
"p_final": 0.5687
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"p_final_no": 0.4249,
"p_final_yes": 0.5687,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5867,
"alpha_under": 0.4267,
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.45,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.56,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.23,
"edge_over": 0.0165,
"edge_under": -0.0165,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0118,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0623,
"ev_under": -0.0445,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1027,
"implied_over": 0.5935,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5884,
"implied_under": 0.4065,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4116,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5867,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0623,
"implied_prob": 0.5884,
"model_prob": 0.61,
"p_final": 0.6011
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4267,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.1027,
"implied_prob": 0.4116,
"model_prob": 0.39,
"p_final": 0.4024
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6011,
"p_final_under": 0.4024,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.15,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1001,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1585,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1001,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Heart of Midlothian, but the model still strongly favours Heart of Midlothian."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1001,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1585,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Heart of Midlothian at 65.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Heart of Midlothian as the value side (65.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Heart of Midlothian, but the model still strongly favours Heart of Midlothian.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Heart of Midlothian",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Heart of Midlothian \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.77 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +16% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1556666 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.77 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +10.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Heart of Midlothian, but the model still strongly favours Heart of Midlothian.",
"Decision strength: 4.1/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +16% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Heart of Midlothian, but the model still strongly favours Heart of Midlothian.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0625,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.77,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5457,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6545,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5649717514124294,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1585,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 64.4,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 64%",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.29"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.29
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.551,
"draw_prob": 0.2122,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6545,
"over_prob": 0.61,
"total_xg": 3.15,
"under_prob": 0.39,
"xg_diff": 1.29
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.77,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0546,
"ev": 0.0625,
"implied_prob": 0.5457,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.6545,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Heart of Midlothian"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4138,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.017,
"market_prob": 0.4079,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.449,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4138,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.017,
"ev": -0.044,
"implied_prob": 0.4079,
"model_prob": 0.449,
"p_final": 0.4249
},
"p_final": 0.4249,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.044,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.569,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0234,
"ev": -0.1185,
"implied_prob": 0.5921,
"model_prob": 0.551,
"p_final": 0.5687
}
},
"edge": 0.0394,
"ev": 0.1001,
"implied_prob": 0.4096,
"model_prob": 0.449,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5867,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.56,
"edge": 0.0127,
"market_prob": 0.5884,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.61,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5867,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0623,
"implied_prob": 0.5884,
"model_prob": 0.61,
"p_final": 0.6011
},
"p_final": 0.6011,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0623,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4267,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.1027,
"implied_prob": 0.4116,
"model_prob": 0.39,
"p_final": 0.4024
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0165,
"ev": -0.0118,
"implied_prob": 0.5935,
"model_prob": 0.61,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1556666,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1001,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.6545,
"draw": 0.2122,
"home": 0.1333
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1001,
"implied_prob": 0.4096,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.449,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1001,
"implied_prob": 0.4096,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.449,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Heart of Midlothian",
"home": "Kilmarnock"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.049087,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0625,
"implied_prob": 0.5457,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.6545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Heart of Midlothian",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0625,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.77,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5457,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6545,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5649717514124294,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1585,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1556666,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T16:44:12.458007+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Premiership de Escocia — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic FC | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | Rangers | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Heart of Midlothian | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Dundee | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | St Mirren | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | St Johnstone | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 7 | Aberdeen FC | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Dundee United | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Hibernian | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic FC | 7 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 18 |
| 2 | Heart of Midlothian | 7 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 13 |
| 3 | Dundee | 7 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 4 | St Johnstone | 7 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 |
| 5 | Dundee United | 7 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 6 | Motherwell | 7 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 7 | Rangers | 7 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 | St Mirren | 7 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 9 | Hibernian | 7 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Aberdeen FC | 7 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 7 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 7 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic FC | 7 | 13.9 | 3.0 | +10.9 | 18 |
| 2 | Heart of Midlothian | 7 | 10.6 | 5.3 | +5.3 | 13 |
| 3 | Rangers | 7 | 6.8 | 5.0 | +1.8 | 16 |
| 4 | St Johnstone | 7 | 7.8 | 6.8 | +1.0 | 8 |
| 5 | Motherwell | 7 | 8.3 | 7.7 | +0.6 | 8 |
| 6 | Dundee United | 7 | 8.7 | 9.2 | -0.5 | 8 |
| 7 | Hibernian | 7 | 8.6 | 9.1 | -0.5 | 7 |
| 8 | St Mirren | 7 | 7.0 | 8.2 | -1.2 | 10 |
| 9 | Aberdeen FC | 7 | 4.7 | 6.5 | -1.8 | 8 |
| 10 | Falkirk | 7 | 3.6 | 6.7 | -3.1 | 6 |
| 11 | Dundee | 7 | 7.0 | 10.7 | -3.7 | 10 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 7 | 4.3 | 13.4 | -9.1 | 5 |
