The model missed the final outcome (Kilmarnock win 0–1).
The model had projected Hibernian at 64.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Hibernian Kilmarnock ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-1, 2-0, 1-1, 1-0, 3-1 0-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Kilmarnock win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 18:41 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Hibernian 2.35 — Kilmarnock 1.08
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Kilmarnock win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
51/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
- High xG deviation from league baseline (74%+)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Strong model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
53/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Kilmarnock win · Hibernian 0–1 Kilmarnock
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
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"source": "xG"
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{
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{
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],
"pick_key": "1X",
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"over_under": {
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"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 66.6,
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"total_expected": 3.43,
"under_prob": 33.4
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"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"label": "Away",
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},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 13.39,
"draw": 19.11,
"home": 67.5
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-15 18:41:19",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-15 18:14:16",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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}
},
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"text": "-11.8%"
},
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"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
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"text": "+1.9%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1116,
"ev_under_display": {
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"text": "-11.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.019,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over_prob": 66.6,
"sort_key": 5215.2,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 33.4,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.43,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.059,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.9,
"text": "-5.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.675,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0133,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.3,
"text": "-1.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.6455,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0769,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Hibernian",
"sort_key": 1796.675,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 809.1,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 9.7
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "12/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "12/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +36.8%",
"alert_team": "Kilmarnock",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.94,
"hero_label": "Hibernian",
"market_prob_pct": 67.5,
"market_team": "Hibernian",
"model_prob_pct": 64.6,
"model_team": "Hibernian",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 69,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hibernian)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hibernian)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0458,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.075,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hibernian at 64.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 67.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hibernian as the value side (64.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hibernian",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hibernian).",
"Decision strength: 7.2/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.059,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.43,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.675,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6455,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6993006993006994,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0769,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 74.1,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 74% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.27"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.27
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "12/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.9230769230769231,
"evidence": {
"score": 100,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (74%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 9.2,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.94,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.94,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.08,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 74.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.35,
"impact_note": "Extreme xG mainly inflates totals (O/U / BTTS) and can overstate 1X2 favourite edges. Primary is blocked on all markets; 1X2 Best +EV lean is still discretionary only \u2014 treat that EV as possibly inflated and size down sharply (e.g. \u226425\u201350% of a normal selective stake) or skip.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.35,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.35 \u00b7 Away xG 1.08 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +74%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 36.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +36.8%",
"steam_team": "Kilmarnock",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hibernian)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hibernian)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0458,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.075,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hibernian at 64.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 67.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hibernian as the value side (64.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hibernian",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hibernian).",
"Decision strength: 7.2/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.059,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.43,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.675,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6455,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6993006993006994,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0769,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 74.1,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 74% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.27"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.27
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hibernian 2.35 xG vs Kilmarnock 1.08 \u2192 Hibernian 64.6%",
"Market: Hibernian ~67.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Kilmarnock odds \u2191 +36.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Hibernian projects stronger on expected goals (+1.27 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.94,
"fair_prob": 64.56,
"label": "Hibernian",
"market_prob": 67.5,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.43,
"fair_prob": 20.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 19.11,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.51,
"fair_prob": 14.9,
"label": "Kilmarnock",
"market_prob": 13.39,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.49,
"fair_prob": 66.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.11,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.49,
"fair_prob": 33.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.89,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.11,
"fair_prob": 60.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.69,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.11,
"fair_prob": 39.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.31,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -2.94,
"fair_prob_pct": 64.56,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Hibernian",
"market_prob_pct": 67.5,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "Kilmarnock"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 2.94,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "Hibernian",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 67.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-2.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -2.9,
"model_prob_pct": 64.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-2.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -2.9,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Hibernian \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hibernian 2.35 xG vs Kilmarnock 1.08 \u2192 Hibernian 64.6%",
"Market: Hibernian ~67.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Kilmarnock odds \u2191 +36.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Hibernian projects stronger on expected goals (+1.27 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.94,
"hero_label": "Hibernian",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Kilmarnock odds lengthened \u2191 +36.8%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Kilmarnock has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 36.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Kilmarnock \u2014 odds lengthened by 36.8% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Kilmarnock has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 36.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Kilmarnock \u2014 odds lengthened by 36.8% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Kilmarnock has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 36.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (12/13) supports the current market view on Kilmarnock."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.94,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 44.0 pp (at 64.6%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 44.0,
"max_prob_pct": 64.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Hibernian",
"largest_gap_pp": -2.9,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.9,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.94,
"edge_pp": -2.94,
"fair_prob_pct": 64.56,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Hibernian",
"market_prob_pct": 67.5,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.43,
"edge_pp": 1.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 20.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 19.11,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.51,
"edge_pp": 1.51,
"fair_prob_pct": 14.9,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Kilmarnock",
"market_prob_pct": 13.39,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Kilmarnock \u2014 odds lengthened by 36.8% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Hibernian (67.5%).",
"However, Kilmarnock has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +36.8%, 12/13) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Hibernian \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 69.93,
"closing_odds": 1.43,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 69.93,
"entry_odds": 1.43,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 12,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +45.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 45.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +42.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 42.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +39.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 39.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +38.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 38.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +37.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 37.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +36.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 36.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +31.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 31.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +27.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 27.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 21,
"bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.5
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "12/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 6.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +36.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 36.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 729h 34m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"12/13 books lengthened Kilmarnock together (36.8% drift, score 69) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 36.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"7.21",
"5.98",
"4.75"
],
"display": "7.40 \u2192 4.70 \u2192 6.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 729h 34m",
"pick_team": "Kilmarnock",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "7.40"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "6.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.75,
7.21,
6.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,5.2",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "7.21"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "6.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.75,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Kilmarnock odds \u2191 +36.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Kilmarnock",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Kilmarnock odds \u2191 +36.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 6.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +36.8%",
"open_odds": 4.75,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Kilmarnock",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 69,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "12/13",
"current_odds": 6.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +36.8%",
"open_odds": 4.75,
"pick_team": "Kilmarnock",
"steam_score": 69,
"steam_team_name": "Kilmarnock",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "kilmarnock",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Kilmarnock",
"away_team_id": 250,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/250.webp",
"away_team_name": "Kilmarnock",
"away_team_public_id": "134EBEtVVDi7ZT",
"away_team_slug": "kilmarnock",
"country_code": "GB-SCT",
"country_display_name": "Scotland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-sct.svg",
"country_id": 136,
"country_name": "Scotland",
"fixture_id": 1556642,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Scotland",
"home_team_display_name": "Hibernian",
"home_team_id": 249,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/249.webp",
"home_team_name": "Hibernian",
"home_team_public_id": "0TAvSOGrB9QBJn",
"home_team_slug": "hibernian",
"ht.home_team_slug": "hibernian",
"league_country": "Scotland",
"league_country_display": "Scotland",
"league_display_name": "Premiership de Escocia",
"league_id": 179,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/179.webp",
"league_name": "Premiership de Escocia",
"league_public_id": "1PKN7lXDD29LSy",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-15 18:45:00",
"public_id": "0ChggPCIZDt8yO",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Edinburgh",
"venue_name": "Easter Road"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1954,
"best_odd": 7.21,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.003,
"ev": -0.0133,
"implied_prob": 0.1339,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1339,
"draw": 0.1911,
"home": 0.675
},
"model_prob": 0.1491,
"p_final": 0.1369
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1957,
"best_odd": 5.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0028,
"ev": -0.0206,
"implied_prob": 0.1911,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1339,
"draw": 0.1911,
"home": 0.675
},
"model_prob": 0.2054,
"p_final": 0.1939
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5734,
"best_odd": 1.43,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0169,
"ev": -0.059,
"implied_prob": 0.675,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1339,
"draw": 0.1911,
"home": 0.675
},
"model_prob": 0.6455,
"p_final": 0.6581
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 7.21,
"edge": 0.0104,
"ev": 0.075,
"implied_prob": 0.1387,
"model_prob": 0.1491
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 5.05,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": 0.0374,
"implied_prob": 0.198,
"model_prob": 0.2054
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.43,
"edge": -0.0538,
"ev": -0.077,
"implied_prob": 0.6993,
"model_prob": 0.6455
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.5182,
"alpha_yes": 0.57,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.72,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0411,
"edge_yes": 0.0411,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.118,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1158,
"ev_yes": 0.0458,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.034,
"implied_no": 0.4331,
"implied_yes": 0.5669,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5182,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": -0.0207,
"ev": -0.1158,
"implied_prob": 0.432,
"model_prob": 0.392,
"p_final": 0.4113
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.57,
"best_odd": 1.635,
"edge": 0.0228,
"ev": -0.034,
"implied_prob": 0.568,
"model_prob": 0.608,
"p_final": 0.5908
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.4113,
"p_final_yes": 0.5908,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5733,
"alpha_under": 0.4169,
"best_over_odd": 1.53,
"best_under_odd": 2.66,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.55,
"edge_over": 0.0349,
"edge_under": -0.0349,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.019,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0243,
"ev_under": -0.1116,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0942,
"implied_over": 0.6311,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6296,
"implied_under": 0.3689,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3704,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5733,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": 0.0209,
"ev": -0.0243,
"implied_prob": 0.6296,
"model_prob": 0.666,
"p_final": 0.6505
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4169,
"best_odd": 2.55,
"edge": -0.0152,
"ev": -0.0942,
"implied_prob": 0.3704,
"model_prob": 0.334,
"p_final": 0.3552
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6505,
"p_final_under": 0.3552,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.43,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0458,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.075,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0458,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [],
"breakdown_resolved": [],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.7
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hibernian)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0458,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.075,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hibernian at 64.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 67.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hibernian as the value side (64.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hibernian",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hibernian).",
"Decision strength: 7.2/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.059,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.43,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.675,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
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"raw_edge_display": "-3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6993006993006994,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0769,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
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"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 74.1,
"reasons": [
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"Clear xG separation gap=1.27"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
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"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
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},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.608,
"draw_prob": 0.2054,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6455,
"over_prob": 0.666,
"total_xg": 3.43,
"under_prob": 0.334,
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},
"type": "strong_signal",
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},
"hero_display_pick": {
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"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
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"side": "home",
"side_label": "Hibernian"
},
"btts": {
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"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
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"prediction_confidence": "high",
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},
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"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"over": {
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},
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"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1556642,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
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"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0458,
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"stake_mult": 0.25,
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},
"match_tier": "value_game",
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"probabilities": {
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},
"reason_codes": [
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],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
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"home": "Hibernian"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "-5.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.43,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.675,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
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"raw_edge_display": "-3.0 percentage points",
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1556642,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-15T18:41:21.931410+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Premiership de Escocia — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic FC | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | Rangers | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Heart of Midlothian | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Dundee | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | St Mirren | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | St Johnstone | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 7 | Aberdeen FC | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Dundee United | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Hibernian | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic FC | 7 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 18 |
| 2 | Heart of Midlothian | 7 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 13 |
| 3 | Dundee | 7 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 4 | St Johnstone | 7 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 |
| 5 | Dundee United | 7 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 6 | Motherwell | 7 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 7 | Rangers | 7 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 | St Mirren | 7 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 9 | Hibernian | 7 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Aberdeen FC | 7 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 7 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 7 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic FC | 7 | 13.9 | 3.0 | +10.9 | 18 |
| 2 | Heart of Midlothian | 7 | 10.6 | 5.3 | +5.3 | 13 |
| 3 | Rangers | 7 | 6.8 | 5.0 | +1.8 | 16 |
| 4 | St Johnstone | 7 | 7.8 | 6.8 | +1.0 | 8 |
| 5 | Motherwell | 7 | 8.3 | 7.7 | +0.6 | 8 |
| 6 | Dundee United | 7 | 8.7 | 9.2 | -0.5 | 8 |
| 7 | Hibernian | 7 | 8.6 | 9.1 | -0.5 | 7 |
| 8 | St Mirren | 7 | 7.0 | 8.2 | -1.2 | 10 |
| 9 | Aberdeen FC | 7 | 4.7 | 6.5 | -1.8 | 8 |
| 10 | Falkirk | 7 | 3.6 | 6.7 | -3.1 | 6 |
| 11 | Dundee | 7 | 7.0 | 10.7 | -3.7 | 10 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 7 | 4.3 | 13.4 | -9.1 | 5 |
