The model missed the final outcome (Monterrey win 1–0).
The model had projected Cruz Azul at 36.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Cruz Azul Monterrey ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correcto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Cruz Azul; match finished Monterrey
Market lesson
The full-time result was Monterrey win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 01:09 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Monterrey 1.37 — Cruz Azul 1.41
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 01:10 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Monterrey win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Monterrey win · Monterrey 1–0 Cruz Azul
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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},
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul.",
"consensus_odds": 3.05,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": 0.0089,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 0.9,
"text": "+0.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3171,
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"max_ev": 0.0089,
"max_ev_display": {
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"text": "+0.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3664,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1175,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Cruz Azul",
"sort_key": 5207.12,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.0
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"alert_team": "Cruz Azul",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.14,
"hero_label": "Monterrey",
"market_prob_pct": 31.7,
"market_team": "Monterrey",
"model_prob_pct": 36.7,
"model_team": "Cruz Azul",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1281,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1281,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cruz Azul at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cruz Azul as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cruz Azul",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0089,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.05,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3171,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3664,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3278688524590164,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1175,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.14,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.14,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.41,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.37,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.41,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.37 \u00b7 Away xG 1.41 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"steam_team": "Cruz Azul",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1281,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1281,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cruz Azul at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cruz Azul as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cruz Azul",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0089,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.05,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3171,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3664,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3278688524590164,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1175,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Monterrey 1.37 xG vs Cruz Azul 1.41 \u2192 Cruz Azul 36.7%",
"Market: Monterrey ~31.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Cruz Azul odds \u2191 +14.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Cruz Azul, but the market has moved away from Cruz Azul.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.14,
"fair_prob": 34.84,
"label": "Monterrey",
"market_prob": 42.98,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.19,
"fair_prob": 28.5,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.31,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.95,
"fair_prob": 36.66,
"label": "Cruz Azul",
"market_prob": 31.71,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.82,
"fair_prob": 52.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.42,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.82,
"fair_prob": 47.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.58,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.69,
"fair_prob": 57.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.59,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.69,
"fair_prob": 42.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.41,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.84,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Monterrey",
"market_prob_pct": 42.98,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Cruz Azul"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Monterrey\u0027s win probability at 43.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.8%, a difference of 8.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.14,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Cruz Azul",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 31.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+5.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 5.0,
"model_prob_pct": 36.7,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+5.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Monterrey 1.37 xG vs Cruz Azul 1.41 \u2192 Cruz Azul 36.7%",
"Market: Monterrey ~31.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Cruz Azul odds \u2191 +14.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Cruz Azul, but the market has moved away from Cruz Azul.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.14,
"hero_label": "Monterrey",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Cruz Azul odds lengthened \u2191 +14.3%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Cruz Azul has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Monterrey. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Cruz Azul \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.3% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Monterrey. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Cruz Azul has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Cruz Azul \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.3% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Monterrey above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Cruz Azul has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Cruz Azul."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.14,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.7,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Monterrey",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Monterrey higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.14,
"edge_pp": -8.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.84,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Monterrey",
"market_prob_pct": 42.98,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.19,
"edge_pp": 3.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.5,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.31,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.95,
"edge_pp": 4.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.66,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Cruz Azul",
"market_prob_pct": 31.71,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Cruz Azul \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.3% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Monterrey (31.7%).",
"However, Cruz Azul has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +14.3%, 9/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Cruz Azul, Market \u2192 Monterrey, while Cruz Azul odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 44.44,
"closing_odds": 2.25,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 44.44,
"entry_odds": 2.25,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.8
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 14.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 120h 46m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Cruz Azul (14.3%, 9/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.20",
"3.00",
"2.80"
],
"display": "3.20 \u2192 2.54 \u2192 3.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 120h 46m",
"pick_team": "Cruz Azul",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.54"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.8,
3.05,
3.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,6.8 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.8,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 9/9 sportsbooks on Cruz Azul",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Cruz Azul",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"open_odds": 2.8,
"summary": "Market moved away from Cruz Azul while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Cruz Azul",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"open_odds": 2.8,
"pick_team": "Cruz Azul",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_team_name": "Cruz Azul",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "cruz-azul",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Cruz Azul",
"away_team_id": 2295,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2295.webp",
"away_team_name": "Cruz Azul",
"away_team_public_id": "4j3AZBvK9QW0V7",
"away_team_slug": "cruz-azul",
"country_code": "MX",
"country_display_name": "Mexico",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/mx.svg",
"country_id": 107,
"country_name": "Mexico",
"fixture_id": 1550970,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Mexico",
"home_team_display_name": "Monterrey",
"home_team_id": 2282,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2282.webp",
"home_team_name": "Monterrey",
"home_team_public_id": "08rbWoVnA8qNux",
"home_team_slug": "monterrey",
"ht.home_team_slug": "monterrey",
"league_country": "Mexico",
"league_country_display": "Mexico",
"league_display_name": "Liga MX",
"league_id": 262,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/262.webp",
"league_name": "Liga MX",
"league_public_id": "1IBdnK76JUhbx1",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 01:10:00",
"public_id": "1SLOUgUlJ44DVQ",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Monterrey",
"venue_name": "Estadio BBVA"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2778,
"best_odd": 3.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": 0.0089,
"implied_prob": 0.3171,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3171,
"draw": 0.2531,
"home": 0.4298
},
"model_prob": 0.3664,
"p_final": 0.3308
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2857,
"best_odd": 3.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0091,
"ev": 0.0018,
"implied_prob": 0.2531,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3171,
"draw": 0.2531,
"home": 0.4298
},
"model_prob": 0.285,
"p_final": 0.2622
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3952,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0321,
"ev": -0.1052,
"implied_prob": 0.4298,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3171,
"draw": 0.2531,
"home": 0.4298
},
"model_prob": 0.3486,
"p_final": 0.3977
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.05,
"edge": 0.0386,
"ev": 0.1176,
"implied_prob": 0.3279,
"model_prob": 0.3664
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.82,
"edge": 0.0232,
"ev": 0.0887,
"implied_prob": 0.2618,
"model_prob": 0.285
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": -0.0959,
"ev": -0.2157,
"implied_prob": 0.4444,
"model_prob": 0.3486
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3971,
"alpha_yes": 0.546,
"best_no_odd": 2.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.53,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0369,
"edge_yes": -0.0369,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0525,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0422,
"ev_yes": -0.1141,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1067,
"implied_no": 0.3841,
"implied_yes": 0.6159,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3971,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0144,
"ev": -0.0422,
"implied_prob": 0.3846,
"model_prob": 0.421,
"p_final": 0.3991
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.546,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0199,
"ev": -0.1067,
"implied_prob": 0.6154,
"model_prob": 0.579,
"p_final": 0.5955
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3991,
"p_final_yes": 0.5955,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5288,
"alpha_under": 0.3846,
"best_over_odd": 1.66,
"best_under_odd": 2.38,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.6,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.23,
"edge_over": -0.0582,
"edge_under": 0.0582,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1268,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.116,
"ev_under": 0.1281,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0202,
"implied_over": 0.5842,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5822,
"implied_under": 0.4158,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4178,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5288,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0297,
"ev": -0.116,
"implied_prob": 0.5822,
"model_prob": 0.526,
"p_final": 0.5525
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3846,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0216,
"ev": -0.0202,
"implied_prob": 0.4178,
"model_prob": 0.474,
"p_final": 0.4394
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5525,
"p_final_under": 0.4394,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.78,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1281,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1281,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1281,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1281,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1281,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cruz Azul at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cruz Azul as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cruz Azul",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0089,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.05,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3171,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3664,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3278688524590164,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1175,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.579,
"draw_prob": 0.285,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3664,
"over_prob": 0.526,
"total_xg": 2.78,
"under_prob": 0.474,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
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"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": 0.0089,
"implied_prob": 0.3171,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3664,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Cruz Azul"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3971,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0144,
"market_prob": 0.3846,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.421,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0144,
"ev": -0.0422,
"implied_prob": 0.3846,
"model_prob": 0.421,
"p_final": 0.3991
},
"p_final": 0.3991,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0422,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.546,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0199,
"ev": -0.1067,
"implied_prob": 0.6154,
"model_prob": 0.579,
"p_final": 0.5955
}
},
"edge": 0.0369,
"ev": 0.0525,
"implied_prob": 0.3841,
"model_prob": 0.421,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0216,
"market_prob": 0.4178,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.474,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5288,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0297,
"ev": -0.116,
"implied_prob": 0.5822,
"model_prob": 0.526,
"p_final": 0.5525
},
"p_final": 0.4394,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0202,
"under": {
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"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0216,
"ev": -0.0202,
"implied_prob": 0.4178,
"model_prob": 0.474,
"p_final": 0.4394
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0582,
"ev": 0.1281,
"implied_prob": 0.4158,
"model_prob": 0.474,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1550970,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1281,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3664,
"draw": 0.285,
"home": 0.3486
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Cruz Azul",
"home": "Monterrey"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1281,
"implied_prob": 0.4158,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.474,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0089,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.05,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3171,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3664,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3278688524590164,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1175,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1550970,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T01:09:07.231747+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga MX — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 2 | Club América | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 3 | Chivas Guadalajara | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 4 | Querétaro | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | León | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Atlas | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Puebla | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | Pachuca | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 12 | Pumas UNAM | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | Atlético San Luis | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 14 | Atlante FC | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 18 | FC Juárez | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 10 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 20 |
| 2 | Club América | 9 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 20 |
| 3 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 16 |
| 4 | Chivas Guadalajara | 10 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 18 |
| 5 | Monterrey | 9 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 13 |
| 6 | Atlas | 10 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 17 |
| 7 | Pachuca | 10 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 12 |
| 8 | León | 10 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana | 9 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | Pumas UNAM | 10 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Atlético San Luis | 10 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 12 |
| 12 | Querétaro | 9 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 17 |
| 13 | Atlante FC | 10 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 | Necaxa | 10 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 8 |
| 15 | Puebla | 10 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 16 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | FC Juárez | 10 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 14.2 | 8.9 | +5.3 | 16 |
| 2 | Club Tijuana | 9 | 9.5 | 4.6 | +4.9 | 14 |
| 3 | Club América | 9 | 11.0 | 6.5 | +4.5 | 20 |
| 4 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 11.5 | 8.6 | +2.9 | 10 |
| 5 | Necaxa | 10 | 10.0 | 7.1 | +2.9 | 8 |
| 6 | Chivas Guadalajara | 10 | 10.2 | 7.5 | +2.7 | 18 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 9 | 10.2 | 7.5 | +2.7 | 13 |
| 8 | Toluca | 10 | 10.2 | 7.9 | +2.3 | 20 |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 12.7 | 10.5 | +2.2 | 10 |
| 10 | Querétaro | 9 | 10.2 | 9.6 | +0.6 | 17 |
| 11 | León | 10 | 10.6 | 10.1 | +0.5 | 17 |
| 12 | Puebla | 10 | 8.0 | 10.8 | -2.8 | 14 |
| 13 | Pumas UNAM | 10 | 7.8 | 10.9 | -3.1 | 12 |
| 14 | Atlas | 10 | 8.4 | 11.6 | -3.2 | 17 |
| 15 | Pachuca | 10 | 8.3 | 12.5 | -4.2 | 12 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 10 | 7.1 | 11.8 | -4.7 | 11 |
| 17 | Atlético San Luis | 10 | 8.6 | 13.6 | -5.0 | 12 |
| 18 | FC Juárez | 10 | 6.0 | 14.7 | -8.7 | 3 |
