Predictions / Football / Colombia. Primera B / Orsomarso vs Quindio

Prediction Audit: Orsomarso vs Quindio Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Orsomarso Orsomarso
Oct 06, 2026 - 00:30
0 1.25
1 1.35
xG Accuracy: 64%
Quindio Quindio

AI correctly predicted the Quindio win.

The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Quindio Quindio ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Quindio considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Quindio +5.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Orsomarso 32.9% 36.2% -3.4 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 31.3% -1.7 pp Aligned
Quindio 37.5% 32.4% +5.1 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Quindio's win probability at 37.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 32.4%, a difference of 5.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Quindio win 0–1).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Quindio.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Quindio more conservatively (32.4% vs model 37.5%, 5.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Quindio win 0–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Oct 06, 2026 · 00:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Orsomarso 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Quindio 37.6%
    • xG · Orsomarso 1.25 — Quindio 1.35
  2. Oct 06, 2026 · 00:20 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Orsomarso 2.55 · Draw 2.95 · Quindio 2.85
    • Implied 1X2 · Orsomarso 36.2% · Draw 31.3% · Quindio 32.4%
    • Bookmaker · draftkings
  3. Oct 06, 2026 · 00:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Orsomarso 2.55 · Draw 2.95 · Quindio 2.85
    • Implied 1X2 · Orsomarso 36.2% · Draw 31.3% · Quindio 32.4%
    • Bookmaker · draftkings
  4. Oct 06, 2026 · 00:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Quindio win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 25/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 30, 2026 · 01:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11908786

Closing Odds 2.85
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Quindio win · Orsomarso 0–1 Quindio
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera B
  • Fixture: Orsomarso vs Quindio
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-06 00:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Orsomarso 1.25 — Quindio 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 43.7% · Probability edge: +4.5 pts · Est. EV: +4.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 13, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera B Primera B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Internacional Palmira 33 17 9 7 60
2 Envigado 35 15 12 8 57
3 Quindio 33 16 9 8 57
4 Real Cartagena 35 15 11 9 56
5 Union Magdalena 33 15 9 9 54
6 Tigres FC 33 12 10 11 46
7 Ind. Yumbo 27 11 10 6 43
8 Bogota FC 33 9 12 12 39
9 Barranquilla 33 10 8 15 38
10 Real Soacha 27 9 9 9 36
11 Patriotas 27 9 8 10 35
12 Popayan 26 7 10 9 31
13 Orsomarso 26 6 9 11 27
14 Depor FC 27 5 9 13 24
15 Real Santander 27 4 10 13 22
16 Leones FC 27 4 9 14 21
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Cartagena 35 55 41 +14 56
2 Envigado 35 47 32 +15 57
3 Union Magdalena 33 47 33 +14 54
4 Internacional Palmira 33 41 29 +12 60
5 Barranquilla 33 41 44 -3 38
6 Quindio 33 34 25 +9 57
7 Tigres FC 33 33 27 +6 46
8 Real Soacha 27 33 30 +3 36
9 Popayan 26 33 34 -1 31
10 Patriotas 27 30 34 -4 35
11 Ind. Yumbo 27 29 21 +8 43
12 Bogota FC 33 28 35 -7 39
13 Depor FC 27 27 42 -15 24
14 Real Santander 27 23 41 -18 22
15 Orsomarso 26 20 28 -8 27
16 Leones FC 27 18 43 -25 21
Primera B Colombia. Primera B Predictions