Predictions / Football / Colombia. Primera B / Quindio vs Bogota FC

Prediction Audit: Quindio vs Bogota FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Quindio Quindio
Sep 28, 2026 - 23:00
1 1.45
0 1.15
xG Accuracy: 64%
Bogota FC Bogota FC

AI correctly predicted the Quindio win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Quindio Quindio ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Quindio win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 28, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Quindio 1.45 — Bogota FC 1.15
  2. Sep 28, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Quindio win · 1–0
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10112457

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Quindio win · Quindio 1–0 Bogota FC
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera B
  • Fixture: Quindio vs Bogota FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-28 23:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 28.4%
  • xG (showing): Quindio 1.45 — Bogota FC 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 53.9% · Implied: 45.1% · Probability edge: +8.8 pts · Est. EV: +11.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera B Primera B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Internacional Palmira 33 17 9 7 60
2 Envigado 35 15 12 8 57
3 Quindio 33 16 9 8 57
4 Real Cartagena 35 15 11 9 56
5 Union Magdalena 33 15 9 9 54
6 Tigres FC 33 12 10 11 46
7 Ind. Yumbo 27 11 10 6 43
8 Bogota FC 33 9 12 12 39
9 Barranquilla 33 10 8 15 38
10 Real Soacha 27 9 9 9 36
11 Patriotas 27 9 8 10 35
12 Popayan 27 7 10 10 31
13 Orsomarso 27 7 9 11 30
14 Depor FC 27 5 9 13 24
15 Real Santander 27 4 10 13 22
16 Leones FC 27 4 9 14 21
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Cartagena 35 55 41 +14 56
2 Envigado 35 47 32 +15 57
3 Union Magdalena 33 47 33 +14 54
4 Internacional Palmira 33 41 29 +12 60
5 Barranquilla 33 41 44 -3 38
6 Quindio 33 34 25 +9 57
7 Tigres FC 33 33 27 +6 46
8 Real Soacha 27 33 30 +3 36
9 Popayan 27 33 35 -2 31
10 Patriotas 27 30 34 -4 35
11 Ind. Yumbo 27 29 21 +8 43
12 Bogota FC 33 28 35 -7 39
13 Depor FC 27 27 42 -15 24
14 Real Santander 27 23 41 -18 22
15 Orsomarso 27 21 28 -7 30
16 Leones FC 27 18 43 -25 21
Primera B Colombia. Primera B Predictions