The model missed the final outcome (Universitario de Popayán win 4–1).
The model had projected Patriotas Boyacá at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Patriotas Boyacá Universitario de Popayán ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Patriotas Boyacá; match finished Universitario de Popayán
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Universitario de Popayán win 4–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Universitario de Popayán 1.28 — Patriotas Boyacá 1.32
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Universitario de Popayán win · 4–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Universitario de Popayán win · Universitario de Popayán 4–1 Patriotas Boyacá
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Universitario de Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1.",
"consensus_odds": 2.84,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0302,
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"raw_pct": -3.0,
"text": "-3.0%"
},
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"id": "1x2",
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},
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"show_primary_label": false,
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"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
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}
],
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"alert_breadth": "1/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"alert_team": "Universitario de Popay\u00e1n",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.41,
"hero_label": "Patriotas Boyac\u00e1",
"market_prob_pct": 32.7,
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"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Patriotas Boyac\u00e1",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 10,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_key": "high",
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"summary": "The market has moved toward Universitario de Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Universitario de Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
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"decision_strength_v2": 3.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Patriotas Boyac\u00e1 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Patriotas Boyac\u00e1 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Universitario de Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Patriotas Boyac\u00e1",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Universitario de Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Universitario de Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0302,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.84,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.327,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35211267605633806,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.025,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.1111111111111111,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.1,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 73,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.41,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.41,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.32,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.28,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.28 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.8,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"steam_team": "Universitario de Popay\u00e1n",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Universitario de Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Universitario de Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Universitario de Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Patriotas Boyac\u00e1 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Patriotas Boyac\u00e1 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Universitario de Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Patriotas Boyac\u00e1",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Universitario de Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Universitario de Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0302,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.84,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.327,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35211267605633806,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.025,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Universitario de Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Universitario de Popay\u00e1n 1.28 xG vs Patriotas Boyac\u00e1 1.32 \u2192 Patriotas Boyac\u00e1 36.1%",
"Market: Universitario de Popay\u00e1n ~32.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Universitario de Popay\u00e1n \u2193 -3.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1, but sharp money moved toward Universitario de Popay\u00e1n.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -1.48,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Universitario de Popay\u00e1n",
"market_prob": 35.72,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.94,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.59,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.41,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Patriotas Boyac\u00e1",
"market_prob": 32.7,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.84,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.36,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.84,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.64,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.5,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.0,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.5,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.0,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 3.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Patriotas Boyac\u00e1",
"market_prob_pct": 32.7,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Universitario de Popay\u00e1n"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.41,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Patriotas Boyac\u00e1",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 3.4,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 73,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Universitario de Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Universitario de Popay\u00e1n 1.28 xG vs Patriotas Boyac\u00e1 1.32 \u2192 Patriotas Boyac\u00e1 36.1%",
"Market: Universitario de Popay\u00e1n ~32.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Universitario de Popay\u00e1n \u2193 -3.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1, but sharp money moved toward Universitario de Popay\u00e1n.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.41,
"hero_label": "Patriotas Boyac\u00e1",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Universitario de Popay\u00e1n odds shortened \u2193 -3.8%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Universitario de Popay\u00e1n, with odds shortening by 3.8%. Confirmation remains limited (1/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Universitario de Popay\u00e1n, with odds shortening by 3.8%. Confirmation remains limited (1/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Universitario de Popay\u00e1n has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 3.8%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.41,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Patriotas Boyac\u00e1",
"largest_gap_pp": 3.4,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.4,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -1.48,
"edge_pp": -1.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Universitario de Popay\u00e1n",
"market_prob_pct": 35.72,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.94,
"edge_pp": -1.94,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.59,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.41,
"edge_pp": 3.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Patriotas Boyac\u00e1",
"market_prob_pct": 32.7,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Universitario de Popay\u00e1n (32.7%).",
"Universitario de Popay\u00e1n has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -3.8%, 1/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Patriotas Boyac\u00e1, Market \u2192 Universitario de Popay\u00e1n, Recent sharp money \u2192 Universitario de Popay\u00e1n.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 35.21,
"closing_odds": 2.84,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 35.21,
"entry_odds": 2.84,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.8
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "1/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.5,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Sharpest sharp-led move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 9h 36m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Universitario de Popay\u00e1n (swing 2.60 \u2192 2.40 \u2192 2.50) \u2014 net 3.8% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.60",
"2.55",
"2.50"
],
"display": "2.60 \u2192 2.40 \u2192 2.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 9h 36m",
"pick_team": "Universitario de Popay\u00e1n",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.60"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.6,
2.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.60"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.6,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Universitario de Popay\u00e1n",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.5,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"open_odds": 2.6,
"summary": "Market moved toward Universitario de Popay\u00e1n while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Universitario de Popay\u00e1n",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 10,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/9",
"current_odds": 2.5,
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"open_odds": 2.6,
"pick_team": "Universitario de Popay\u00e1n",
"steam_score": 10,
"steam_team_name": "Universitario de Popay\u00e1n",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "patriotas-1140",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Patriotas Boyac\u00e1",
"away_team_id": 1140,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1140.webp",
"away_team_name": "Patriotas Boyac\u00e1",
"away_team_public_id": "1RxrwhltDiuGXW",
"away_team_slug": "patriotas-1140",
"country_code": "CO",
"country_display_name": "Colombia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/co.svg",
"country_id": 34,
"country_name": "Colombia",
"fixture_id": 1549644,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Colombia",
"home_team_display_name": "Universitario de Popay\u00e1n",
"home_team_id": 1460,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1460.webp",
"home_team_name": "Universitario de Popay\u00e1n",
"home_team_public_id": "1VYOeqPSura9sS",
"home_team_slug": "popayan",
"ht.home_team_slug": "popayan",
"league_country": "Colombia",
"league_country_display": "Colombia",
"league_display_name": "Primera B de Colombia",
"league_id": 240,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/240.webp",
"league_name": "Primera B de Colombia",
"league_public_id": "1UzUWXxQJJ2nW3",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 22:00:00",
"public_id": "1Dax7KIBjyk4va",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Cali",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4271,
"best_odd": 2.84,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0145,
"ev": -0.0302,
"implied_prob": 0.327,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.327,
"draw": 0.3159,
"home": 0.3572
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3415
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4371,
"best_odd": 2.94,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0084,
"ev": -0.096,
"implied_prob": 0.3159,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.327,
"draw": 0.3159,
"home": 0.3572
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.3075
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.44,
"best_odd": 2.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0065,
"ev": -0.0883,
"implied_prob": 0.3572,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.327,
"draw": 0.3159,
"home": 0.3572
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3507
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.84,
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": 0.0251,
"implied_prob": 0.3521,
"model_prob": 0.3609
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.94,
"edge": -0.0435,
"ev": -0.1278,
"implied_prob": 0.3401,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.6,
"edge": -0.0422,
"ev": -0.1098,
"implied_prob": 0.3846,
"model_prob": 0.3424
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2098,
"alpha_yes": 0.2098,
"best_no_odd": 1.87,
"best_yes_odd": 1.87,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.045,
"edge_yes": 0.045,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1491,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1023,
"ev_yes": 0.0192,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0677,
"implied_no": 0.5,
"implied_yes": 0.5,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.0094,
"ev": -0.1023,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4906
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0677,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5094
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4906,
"p_final_yes": 0.5094,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2085,
"alpha_under": 0.2294,
"best_over_odd": 2.2,
"best_under_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.12,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.62,
"edge_over": 0.0484,
"edge_under": -0.0484,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0604,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0601,
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0999,
"implied_over": 0.4336,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4332,
"implied_under": 0.5664,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5668,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2085,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0601,
"implied_prob": 0.4332,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4433
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2294,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0112,
"ev": -0.0999,
"implied_prob": 0.5668,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5556
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4433,
"p_final_under": 0.5556,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0604,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Universitario de Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Patriotas Boyac\u00e1 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Patriotas Boyac\u00e1 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Universitario de Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Patriotas Boyac\u00e1",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Universitario de Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Universitario de Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
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"consensus_ev_display": "-3.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.84,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.327,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35211267605633806,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.025,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0145,
"ev": -0.0302,
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"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Patriotas Boyac\u00e1"
},
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"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0094,
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"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.0094,
"ev": -0.1023,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
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"p_final": 0.4906
},
"p_final": 0.5094,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0677,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0677,
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}
},
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"side": "yes",
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},
"ou_2_5": {
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"edge": 0.0102,
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
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"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0601,
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},
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0601,
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"edge": -0.0112,
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"implied_prob": 0.5668,
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
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"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1549644,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0604,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3424
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Patriotas Boyac\u00e1",
"home": "Universitario de Popay\u00e1n"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.4336,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0302,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.84,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.327,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35211267605633806,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.025,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1549644,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T21:59:16.867098+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera B de Colombia — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internacional Palmira | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 60 |
| 2 | Envigado | 35 | 15 | 12 | 8 | 57 |
| 3 | Quindío | 33 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 57 |
| 4 | Real Cartagena | 35 | 15 | 11 | 9 | 56 |
| 5 | Unión Magdalena | 33 | 15 | 9 | 9 | 54 |
| 6 | Tigres FC | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 46 |
| 7 | Independiente Yumbo | 27 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 43 |
| 8 | Bogotá FC | 33 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 39 |
| 9 | Barranquilla FC | 33 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 38 |
| 10 | Real Soacha | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 36 |
| 11 | Patriotas Boyacá | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 35 |
| 12 | Universitario de Popayán | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 31 |
| 13 | Orsomarso SC | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 30 |
| 14 | Depor FC | 27 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 24 |
| 15 | Real Santander | 27 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 22 |
| 16 | Leones FC | 27 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 21 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Cartagena | 35 | 55 | 41 | +14 | 56 |
| 2 | Envigado | 35 | 47 | 32 | +15 | 57 |
| 3 | Unión Magdalena | 33 | 47 | 33 | +14 | 54 |
| 4 | Internacional Palmira | 33 | 41 | 29 | +12 | 60 |
| 5 | Barranquilla FC | 33 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 38 |
| 6 | Quindío | 33 | 34 | 25 | +9 | 57 |
| 7 | Tigres FC | 33 | 33 | 27 | +6 | 46 |
| 8 | Real Soacha | 27 | 33 | 30 | +3 | 36 |
| 9 | Universitario de Popayán | 27 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 31 |
| 10 | Patriotas Boyacá | 27 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 35 |
| 11 | Independiente Yumbo | 27 | 29 | 21 | +8 | 43 |
| 12 | Bogotá FC | 33 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 39 |
| 13 | Depor FC | 27 | 27 | 42 | -15 | 24 |
| 14 | Real Santander | 27 | 23 | 41 | -18 | 22 |
| 15 | Orsomarso SC | 27 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 30 |
| 16 | Leones FC | 27 | 18 | 43 | -25 | 21 |
