Predictions / Football / Colombia. Primera B / Quindio vs Patriotas

Prediction Audit: Quindio vs Patriotas Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Quindio Quindio
Sep 13, 2026 - 23:00
1 1.28
2 1.32
xG Accuracy: 77%
Patriotas Patriotas

AI correctly predicted the Patriotas win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Patriotas Patriotas ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Patriotas win 1–2).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 07, 2026 · 02:28 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Quindio 1.28 — Patriotas 1.32
  2. Sep 13, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Patriotas win · 1–2
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7462162

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Patriotas win · Quindio 1–2 Patriotas
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera B
  • Fixture: Quindio vs Patriotas
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 23:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Quindio 1.28 — Patriotas 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Primera B Matches Track Quindio Next Match Prediction Track Patriotas Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Quindio & Patriotas!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Primera B Primera B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Internacional Palmira 33 17 9 7 60
2 Envigado 35 15 12 8 57
3 Quindio 33 16 9 8 57
4 Real Cartagena 35 15 11 9 56
5 Union Magdalena 33 15 9 9 54
6 Tigres FC 33 12 10 11 46
7 Ind. Yumbo 27 11 10 6 43
8 Bogota FC 33 9 12 12 39
9 Barranquilla 33 10 8 15 38
10 Real Soacha 27 9 9 9 36
11 Patriotas 27 9 8 10 35
12 Popayan 27 7 10 10 31
13 Orsomarso 27 7 9 11 30
14 Depor FC 27 5 9 13 24
15 Real Santander 27 4 10 13 22
16 Leones FC 27 4 9 14 21
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Cartagena 35 55 41 +14 56
2 Envigado 35 47 32 +15 57
3 Union Magdalena 33 47 33 +14 54
4 Internacional Palmira 33 41 29 +12 60
5 Barranquilla 33 41 44 -3 38
6 Quindio 33 34 25 +9 57
7 Tigres FC 33 33 27 +6 46
8 Real Soacha 27 33 30 +3 36
9 Popayan 27 33 35 -2 31
10 Patriotas 27 30 34 -4 35
11 Ind. Yumbo 27 29 21 +8 43
12 Bogota FC 33 28 35 -7 39
13 Depor FC 27 27 42 -15 24
14 Real Santander 27 23 41 -18 22
15 Orsomarso 27 21 28 -7 30
16 Leones FC 27 18 43 -25 21
Primera B Colombia. Primera B Predictions