The model missed the final outcome (Cyprus win 2–1).
The model had projected Latvia at 41.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Latvia Cyprus ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 2-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cyprus | 35.0% | 59.6% | -24.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 23.4% | 26.0% | -2.6 pp | Aligned |
| Latvia | 41.7% | 14.4% | +27.3 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Latvia's win probability at 41.7%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 14.4%, a difference of 27.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Cyprus win 2–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.79) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Latvia; match finished Cyprus
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Latvia by 27.3 percentage points (14.4% vs model 41.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 19:08 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Cyprus 35.0% · Draw 23.4% · Latvia 41.7%
- xG · Cyprus 1.81 — Latvia 1.98
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 15:40 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE20
- 1X2 odds · Cyprus 1.57 · Draw 3.60 · Latvia 6.50
- Implied 1X2 · Cyprus 59.6% · Draw 26.0% · Latvia 14.4%
- Bookmaker · bet365 us
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Cyprus 1.57 · Draw 3.60 · Latvia 6.50
- Implied 1X2 · Cyprus 59.6% · Draw 26.0% · Latvia 14.4%
- Bookmaker · bet365 us
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Cyprus win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (27 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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UEFA Nations League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Italy | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | France | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | +1.4 | 10 |
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | +0.6 | 7 |
| 3 | Türkiye | 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | -0.6 | 0 |
| 4 | Belgium | 4 | 0.6 | 2.0 | -1.4 | 6 |
