Vorhersagen / WM 2026 / Schweden vs Tunesien

Schweden vs Tunesien

Group F
Schweden Schweden
Jun 15, 2026 - 02:00
5 1.49
1 1.21
Tunesien Tunesien

Betting Signal

Model sagt
Schweden 42.1%
Status
Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately

OddsGPT Interpretation

The statistical model leans Schweden (42.1%).

The model and market both lean Schweden, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Tunesien remain plausible — this is a relatively open match.

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KI-Prognose
Schweden 42.1%
Draw 28.7%
Tunesien 29.3%

Erstellt aus einer Elo-bereinigten Poisson-Simulation. Keine Buchmacherquoten.

Vollständige Modelldaten anzeigen
Poisson-Torlinien-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Linie Über Unter
0.5 91.7% 8.3%
1.5 76.7% 23.3%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Spielerwartungen
Über 2,5 Tore
50.6%
Balanced
Unter 2,5 Tore
49.4%
Beide treffen
55.9%
Balanced
Zu-Null wahrscheinlich
44.1%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 55.9% · No 44.1% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

Wahrscheinlichste Ergebnisse
Ergebnis Wahrscheinlichkeit
1-1 13.7%
2-1 9.0%
1-0 8.4%
0-0 8.3%
2-0 7.5%

Top Poisson cell: 1-1 at 13.7% (draw-type scoreline; exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Spielphase: Finished

Entscheidungslebenszyklus

Aktuelle Stufe: Closing unavailable

  1. Prognose erstellt
  2. Markt verglichen
    Einstieg Ausstehend
  3. Validierung bestanden
  4. Closing erfasst
    Closing Unavailable No complete pre-match closing snapshot
  5. CLV bewertet
    CLV Ausstehend Requires closing line after full time
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Spiele Group F