AI correctly predicted the Albania win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Albania Albania ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albania | 34.8% | 92.6% | -57.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 31.0% | 5.6% | +25.4 pp | Model Edge |
| San Marino | 34.3% | 1.9% | +32.4 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Albania's win probability at 92.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.8%, a difference of 57.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Albania win 2–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Albania higher (92.6% vs model 34.8%, 57.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Albania win 2–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
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Oct 06, 2026 · 01:25 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Albania 34.8% · Draw 31.0% · San Marino 34.3%
- xG · Albania 1.21 — San Marino 1.20
-
Oct 06, 2026 · 18:25 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE20
- 1X2 odds · Albania 1.02 · Draw 17.00 · San Marino 51.00
- Implied 1X2 · Albania 92.6% · Draw 5.6% · San Marino 1.9%
- Bookmaker · bet365 us
-
Oct 06, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Albania 1.02 · Draw 17.00 · San Marino 51.00
- Implied 1X2 · Albania 92.6% · Draw 5.6% · San Marino 1.9%
- Bookmaker · bet365 us
-
Oct 06, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Albania win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (58 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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UEFA Nations League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Italy | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | France | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | +1.4 | 10 |
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | +0.6 | 7 |
| 3 | Türkiye | 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | -0.6 | 0 |
| 4 | Belgium | 4 | 0.6 | 2.0 | -1.4 | 6 |
