AI correctly predicted the Italia win.
The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
A
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Italia Italia ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 3-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italia | 52.9% | 64.6% | -11.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 22.5% | 19.7% | +2.8 pp | Aligned |
| Turquía | 24.7% | 15.6% | +9.0 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Italia's win probability at 64.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 52.9%, a difference of 11.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Italia win 3–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Italia than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.79) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Italia higher (64.7% vs model 52.9%, 11.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Italia win 3–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 19:10 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Italia 52.9% · Draw 22.5% · Turquía 24.6%
- xG · Italia 1.88 — Turquía 1.91
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 18:36 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Italia 1.45 · Draw 4.75 · Turquía 6.00
- Implied 1X2 · Italia 64.6% · Draw 19.7% · Turquía 15.6%
- Bookmaker · bet365 us
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Italia 1.45 · Draw 4.75 · Turquía 6.00
- Implied 1X2 · Italia 64.6% · Draw 19.7% · Turquía 15.6%
- Bookmaker · bet365 us
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Italia win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
41/100
Betting Confidence
45/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.45
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Italia win · Italia 3–1 Turquía
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
{
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"consensus_odds": 1.45,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1468,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.7,
"text": "-14.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.6464,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0308,
"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 3.1,
"text": "+3.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.529,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2329,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Italia",
"sort_key": 5224.64,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 804.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 8.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"alert_team": "Turqu\u00eda",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.8,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.79,
"hero_label": "Italia",
"market_prob_pct": 64.6,
"market_team": "Italia",
"model_prob_pct": 52.9,
"model_team": "Italia",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 78,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Italia)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Italia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3176,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4776,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 56,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Italia at 52.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 64.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Italia as the value side (52.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Italia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Italia \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.02 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +48% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1528945 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.02 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +31.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +31.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +31.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +31.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+31.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Italia).",
"Decision strength: 5.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +48% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 70,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1468,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.45,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6464,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.529,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6896551724137931,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2329,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 41.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.03 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.03
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 70,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.79,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.79,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.91,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 41.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.88,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.91,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.88 \u00b7 Away xG 1.91 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +41%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"steam_team": "Turqu\u00eda",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Italia)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Italia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3176,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4776,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 56,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Italia at 52.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 64.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Italia as the value side (52.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Italia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Italia \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.02 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +48% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1528945 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.02 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +31.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +31.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +31.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +31.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+31.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Italia).",
"Decision strength: 5.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +48% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 70,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1468,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.45,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6464,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.529,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6896551724137931,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2329,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 41.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.03 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.03
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Italia 1.88 xG vs Turqu\u00eda 1.91 \u2192 Italia 52.9%",
"Market: Italia ~64.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Turqu\u00eda odds \u2191 +20.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Italia with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -11.79,
"fair_prob": 52.85,
"label": "Italia",
"market_prob": 64.64,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.76,
"fair_prob": 22.49,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 19.73,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.04,
"fair_prob": 24.66,
"label": "Turqu\u00eda",
"market_prob": 15.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.12,
"fair_prob": 73.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.88,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.02,
"fair_prob": 27.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.12,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 20.62,
"fair_prob": 73.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 52.58,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -20.62,
"fair_prob": 26.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 47.42,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.79,
"fair_prob_pct": 52.85,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Italia",
"market_prob_pct": 64.64,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Turqu\u00eda"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Italia\u0027s win probability at 64.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 52.9%, a difference of 11.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.79,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Italia",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 64.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-11.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -11.7,
"model_prob_pct": 52.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-11.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -11.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 70,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Italia \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Italia 1.88 xG vs Turqu\u00eda 1.91 \u2192 Italia 52.9%",
"Market: Italia ~64.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Turqu\u00eda odds \u2191 +20.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Italia with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.79,
"hero_label": "Italia",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Turqu\u00eda odds lengthened \u2191 +20.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Turqu\u00eda has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Italia than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Turqu\u00eda \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.0% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Italia than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Turqu\u00eda has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Turqu\u00eda \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.0% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Italia more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Turqu\u00eda has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Turqu\u00eda."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.79,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 28.2 pp (at 52.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 28.2,
"max_prob_pct": 52.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Italia",
"largest_gap_pp": -11.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Italia higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -11.79,
"edge_pp": -11.79,
"fair_prob_pct": 52.85,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Italia",
"market_prob_pct": 64.64,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.76,
"edge_pp": 2.76,
"fair_prob_pct": 22.49,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 19.73,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.04,
"edge_pp": 9.04,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.66,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Turqu\u00eda",
"market_prob_pct": 15.62,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Turqu\u00eda \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.0% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Italia (64.6%).",
"However, Turqu\u00eda has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +20.0%, 9/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Italia \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 68.97,
"closing_odds": 1.45,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 68.97,
"entry_odds": 1.45,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +63.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 63.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +61.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 61.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +60.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 60.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +59.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 59.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +41.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 41.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +40.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 40.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +40.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 40.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +39.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 39.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 7.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 20.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 42m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"9/9 books lengthened Turqu\u00eda together (20.0% drift, score 78) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"7.89",
"7.07",
"6.25"
],
"display": "8.00 \u2192 4.60 \u2192 7.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 42m",
"pick_team": "Turqu\u00eda",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "8.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "7.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
6.25,
7.89,
7.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,4.3",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "6.25"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "7.89"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "7.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 6.25,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Turqu\u00eda odds \u2191 +20.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Turqu\u00eda",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Turqu\u00eda odds \u2191 +20.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 7.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"open_odds": 6.25,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Turqu\u00eda",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 78,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 7.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"open_odds": 6.25,
"pick_team": "Turqu\u00eda",
"steam_score": 78,
"steam_team_name": "Turqu\u00eda",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "turkiye",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Turqu\u00eda",
"away_team_id": 777,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/777.webp",
"away_team_name": "Turqu\u00eda",
"away_team_public_id": "1I3vGnRHqc0pRj",
"away_team_slug": "turkiye",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1528945,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Italia",
"home_team_display_name": "Italia",
"home_team_id": 768,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/768.webp",
"home_team_name": "Italia",
"home_team_public_id": "4xRN4xP5ED9pkY",
"home_team_slug": "italy",
"ht.home_team_slug": "italy",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Liga de Naciones de la UEFA",
"league_id": 5,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/5.webp",
"league_name": "Liga de Naciones de la UEFA",
"league_public_id": "2RfJso86Xu4FQW",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-05 18:45:00",
"public_id": "5YK6Nn6v2uQosT",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Bologna",
"venue_name": "Stadio Renato Dall\u0027Ara"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.173,
"best_odd": 6.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0156,
"ev": 0.0308,
"implied_prob": 0.1562,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1562,
"draw": 0.1973,
"home": 0.6464
},
"model_prob": 0.2463,
"p_final": 0.1718
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1918,
"best_odd": 4.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0052,
"ev": -0.0377,
"implied_prob": 0.1973,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1562,
"draw": 0.1973,
"home": 0.6464
},
"model_prob": 0.2247,
"p_final": 0.2026
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4943,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.058,
"ev": -0.1468,
"implied_prob": 0.6464,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1562,
"draw": 0.1973,
"home": 0.6464
},
"model_prob": 0.529,
"p_final": 0.5884
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 6.0,
"edge": 0.0796,
"ev": 0.4776,
"implied_prob": 0.1667,
"model_prob": 0.2463
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.75,
"edge": 0.0142,
"ev": 0.0673,
"implied_prob": 0.2105,
"model_prob": 0.2247
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": -0.1606,
"ev": -0.2329,
"implied_prob": 0.6897,
"model_prob": 0.529
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1551,
"alpha_yes": 0.1706,
"best_no_odd": 2.05,
"best_yes_odd": 1.8,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.2062,
"edge_yes": 0.2062,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.4506,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1362,
"ev_yes": 0.3176,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0112,
"implied_no": 0.4742,
"implied_yes": 0.5258,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1551,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.0321,
"ev": -0.1362,
"implied_prob": 0.4751,
"model_prob": 0.268,
"p_final": 0.443
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1706,
"best_odd": 1.765,
"edge": 0.0353,
"ev": -0.0112,
"implied_prob": 0.5249,
"model_prob": 0.732,
"p_final": 0.5602
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.443,
"p_final_yes": 0.5602,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2025,
"alpha_under": 0.1475,
"best_over_odd": 1.6,
"best_under_odd": 2.55,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.53,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.38,
"edge_over": 0.1212,
"edge_under": -0.1202,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.168,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0311,
"ev_under": -0.3089,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1109,
"implied_over": 0.6088,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6087,
"implied_under": 0.3912,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3913,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2025,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": 0.0246,
"ev": -0.0311,
"implied_prob": 0.6087,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.6333
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1475,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": -0.0177,
"ev": -0.1109,
"implied_prob": 0.3913,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.3736
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6333,
"p_final_under": 0.3736,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3176,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4776,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3176,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.4
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Italia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3176,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4776,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 56,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Italia at 52.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 64.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Italia as the value side (52.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Italia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Italia \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.02 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +48% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1528945 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.02 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +31.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +31.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +31.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +31.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+31.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Italia).",
"Decision strength: 5.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +48% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 70,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1468,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.45,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6464,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.529,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6896551724137931,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2329,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 41.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.03 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.03
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.732,
"draw_prob": 0.2247,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.529,
"over_prob": 0.73,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"under_prob": 0.271,
"xg_diff": 0.03
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0308,
"implied_prob": 0.1562,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.2463,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "longshot",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Turqu\u00eda",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.45,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.058,
"ev": -0.1468,
"implied_prob": 0.6464,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.529,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Italia"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1706,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.765,
"edge": 0.0353,
"market_prob": 0.5249,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.732,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1551,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.0321,
"ev": -0.1362,
"implied_prob": 0.4751,
"model_prob": 0.268,
"p_final": 0.443
},
"p_final": 0.5602,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0112,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1706,
"best_odd": 1.765,
"edge": 0.0353,
"ev": -0.0112,
"implied_prob": 0.5249,
"model_prob": 0.732,
"p_final": 0.5602
}
},
"edge": 0.2062,
"ev": 0.3176,
"implied_prob": 0.5258,
"model_prob": 0.732,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2025,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.53,
"edge": 0.0246,
"market_prob": 0.6087,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2025,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": 0.0246,
"ev": -0.0311,
"implied_prob": 0.6087,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.6333
},
"p_final": 0.6333,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0311,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1475,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": -0.0177,
"ev": -0.1109,
"implied_prob": 0.3913,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.3736
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1212,
"ev": 0.168,
"implied_prob": 0.6088,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1528945,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3176,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2463,
"draw": 0.2247,
"home": 0.529
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.168,
"implied_prob": 0.6088,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.168,
"implied_prob": 0.6088,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Turqu\u00eda",
"home": "Italia"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.267356,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3176,
"implied_prob": 0.5258,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.732,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1468,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.45,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6464,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.529,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6896551724137931,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2329,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1528945,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-05T19:10:27.350915+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga de Naciones de la UEFA — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Italia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Bélgica | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Turquía | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Italia | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | Francia | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Bélgica | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 4 | Turquía | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francia | 4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | +1.4 | 10 |
| 2 | Italia | 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | +0.6 | 7 |
| 3 | Turquía | 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | -0.6 | 0 |
| 4 | Bélgica | 4 | 0.6 | 2.0 | -1.4 | 6 |
