The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Polonia at 49.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (0 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Polonia Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 3-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 19:16 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Polonia 1.92 — Bosnia y Herzegovina 1.87
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Polonia 0–0 Bosnia y Herzegovina
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"api_prediction": {
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"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "0%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "50%",
"winner_name": "Polonia"
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"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
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"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
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},
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"no_prob": 26.8,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 73.2,
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},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.87,
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{
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{
"away": 1,
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{
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{
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{
"away": 1,
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}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
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},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Polonia or Bosnia y Herzegovina",
"prob": 76.2
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Bosnia y Herzegovina",
"prob": 51.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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"pick_prob": 76.2
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"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 23.8,
"home_pct": 49.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Polonia"
},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 3.79,
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"confidence": "high",
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"pick": "Over 2.5",
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"source": "xG_dc",
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"total_expected": 3.79,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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"edge": 50.4,
"implied_prob": 18.1,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Bosnia y Herzegovina Win",
"model_prob": 27.2,
"odds": 5.53
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"draw": 22.64,
"home": 59.91
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-25 18:45:17",
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"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-25 18:14:59",
"has_data": true,
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"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"movement": [
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"same_bookmaker": true,
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},
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"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
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},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
},
{
"label": "1-2",
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},
{
"label": "2-2",
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},
{
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 5.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.92,
"homepage_pick": null,
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"available": true,
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"edge": 0.0353,
"edge_pp": 3.5,
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"edge": 0.0353,
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"p_final": 0.5757
},
"p_final": 0.5757,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.9,
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"ev": -0.1149,
"implied_prob": 0.4595,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.4276
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4381,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 43.8,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.4228,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -42.3,
"text": "-42.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"n_bookmakers": 8,
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"sort_key": 10544.29,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 27.1,
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},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1701,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.77,
"edge": 0.0355,
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"market_prob": 0.5236,
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"model_prob": 0.732,
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"no": {
"alpha": 0.1546,
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"edge": -0.0322,
"ev": -0.136,
"implied_prob": 0.4764,
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},
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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"implied_prob": 0.5236,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.4506,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -45.1,
"text": "-45.1%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.3542,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 35.4,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.3542,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 26.8,
"sort_key": 10318.78,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 73.2
},
{
"authority_action": "monitor",
"authority_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"consensus_odds": 1.61,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1234,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.3,
"text": "-12.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5991,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0565,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.7,
"text": "+5.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4902,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2108,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Polonia",
"sort_key": 5245.2,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 804.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 8.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"alert_team": "Bosnia y Herzegovina",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.9,
"hero_label": "Polonia",
"market_prob_pct": 59.9,
"market_team": "Polonia",
"model_prob_pct": 49.0,
"model_team": "Polonia",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Polonia)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Polonia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4381,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5027,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Polonia at 49.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 59.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Polonia as the value side (49.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Polonia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Polonia \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.06 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +50% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1528885 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.06 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +43.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +43.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +43.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +43.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+43.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Polonia).",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +50% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1234,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.61,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5991,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4902,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6211180124223602,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2108,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 42.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.05 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.05
}
}
},
"bet_status": "monitor",
"books_breadth_display": "6/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.7,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 67,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.9,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.9,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.87,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 42.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.92,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.92,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.92 \u00b7 Away xG 1.87 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +42%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"steam_team": "Bosnia y Herzegovina",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Polonia)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Polonia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4381,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5027,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Polonia at 49.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 59.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Polonia as the value side (49.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Polonia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Polonia \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.06 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +50% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1528885 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.06 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +43.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +43.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +43.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +43.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+43.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Polonia).",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +50% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1234,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.61,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5991,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4902,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6211180124223602,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2108,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 42.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.05 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.05
}
}
},
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"tier": "monitor"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Polonia 1.92 xG vs Bosnia y Herzegovina 1.87 \u2192 Polonia 49.0%",
"Market: Polonia ~59.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Bosnia y Herzegovina odds \u2191 +10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Polonia with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -10.9,
"fair_prob": 49.01,
"label": "Polonia",
"market_prob": 59.91,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.17,
"fair_prob": 23.81,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.64,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.74,
"fair_prob": 27.18,
"label": "Bosnia y Herzegovina",
"market_prob": 17.44,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 19.44,
"fair_prob": 73.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.56,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -19.34,
"fair_prob": 27.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.44,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 21.13,
"fair_prob": 73.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 52.07,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -21.13,
"fair_prob": 26.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 47.93,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 49.01,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Polonia",
"market_prob_pct": 59.91,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Bosnia y Herzegovina"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Polonia\u0027s win probability at 59.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 49.0%, a difference of 10.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.9,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Polonia",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 59.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-10.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -10.9,
"model_prob_pct": 49.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-10.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -10.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 67,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Polonia \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Polonia 1.92 xG vs Bosnia y Herzegovina 1.87 \u2192 Polonia 49.0%",
"Market: Polonia ~59.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Bosnia y Herzegovina odds \u2191 +10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Polonia with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.9,
"hero_label": "Polonia",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Bosnia y Herzegovina odds lengthened \u2191 +10.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Bosnia y Herzegovina has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Polonia than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Bosnia y Herzegovina \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.0% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Polonia than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Bosnia y Herzegovina has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Bosnia y Herzegovina \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.0% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Polonia more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Bosnia y Herzegovina has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.0%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.9,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 21.8 pp (at 49.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 21.8,
"max_prob_pct": 49.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Polonia",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Polonia higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -10.9,
"edge_pp": -10.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 49.01,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Polonia",
"market_prob_pct": 59.91,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.17,
"edge_pp": 1.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.81,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.64,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.74,
"edge_pp": 9.74,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.18,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Bosnia y Herzegovina",
"market_prob_pct": 17.44,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Bosnia y Herzegovina \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.0% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Polonia (59.9%).",
"Bosnia y Herzegovina odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +10.0%, 6/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Polonia \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 62.11,
"closing_odds": 1.61,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 62.11,
"entry_odds": 1.61,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.8
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "6/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 152h 48m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Bosnia y Herzegovina (10.0%, 6/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Modest lengthening \u2014 treat as drift tracking rather than steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.53",
"5.27",
"5.00"
],
"display": "5.66 \u2192 4.75 \u2192 5.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 152h 48m",
"pick_team": "Bosnia y Herzegovina",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.66"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.0,
5.53,
5.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,1.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.53"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.0,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Bosnia y Herzegovina",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"open_odds": 5.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Bosnia y Herzegovina",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/9",
"current_odds": 5.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"open_odds": 5.0,
"pick_team": "Bosnia y Herzegovina",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Bosnia y Herzegovina",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "bosnia-herzegovina",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Bosnia y Herzegovina",
"away_team_id": 1113,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1113.webp",
"away_team_name": "Bosnia y Herzegovina",
"away_team_public_id": "3pB0NlNACCXtcR",
"away_team_slug": "bosnia-herzegovina",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1528885,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Polonia",
"home_team_display_name": "Polonia",
"home_team_id": 24,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/24.webp",
"home_team_name": "Polonia",
"home_team_public_id": "3JHTNiAytX9sI8",
"home_team_slug": "poland",
"ht.home_team_slug": "poland",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Liga de Naciones de la UEFA",
"league_id": 5,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/5.webp",
"league_name": "Liga de Naciones de la UEFA",
"league_public_id": "2RfJso86Xu4FQW",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-25 18:45:00",
"public_id": "443b8GeY01bSWF",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Warsaw",
"venue_name": "National Stadium Warsaw"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1708,
"best_odd": 5.53,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0166,
"ev": 0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.1744,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1744,
"draw": 0.2264,
"home": 0.5991
},
"model_prob": 0.2717,
"p_final": 0.1911
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1965,
"best_odd": 4.26,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0023,
"ev": -0.0256,
"implied_prob": 0.2264,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1744,
"draw": 0.2264,
"home": 0.5991
},
"model_prob": 0.2381,
"p_final": 0.2287
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5019,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0547,
"ev": -0.1234,
"implied_prob": 0.5991,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1744,
"draw": 0.2264,
"home": 0.5991
},
"model_prob": 0.4902,
"p_final": 0.5444
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.53,
"edge": 0.0909,
"ev": 0.5027,
"implied_prob": 0.1808,
"model_prob": 0.2717
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.26,
"edge": 0.0033,
"ev": 0.0143,
"implied_prob": 0.2347,
"model_prob": 0.2381
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.1309,
"ev": -0.2108,
"implied_prob": 0.6211,
"model_prob": 0.4902
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1546,
"alpha_yes": 0.1701,
"best_no_odd": 2.05,
"best_yes_odd": 1.85,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.2113,
"edge_yes": 0.2113,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.4506,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.136,
"ev_yes": 0.3542,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0105,
"implied_no": 0.4793,
"implied_yes": 0.5207,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1546,
"best_odd": 1.945,
"edge": -0.0322,
"ev": -0.136,
"implied_prob": 0.4764,
"model_prob": 0.268,
"p_final": 0.4442
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1701,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": 0.0355,
"ev": -0.0105,
"implied_prob": 0.5236,
"model_prob": 0.732,
"p_final": 0.559
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4442,
"p_final_yes": 0.559,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.186,
"alpha_under": 0.1694,
"best_over_odd": 1.97,
"best_under_odd": 2.13,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.76,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.07,
"edge_over": 0.1944,
"edge_under": -0.1934,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4381,
"ev_over_risk_adj": 0.0133,
"ev_under": -0.4228,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1149,
"implied_over": 0.5356,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5405,
"implied_under": 0.4644,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4595,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.186,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": 0.0353,
"ev": 0.0133,
"implied_prob": 0.5405,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.5757
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1694,
"best_odd": 2.07,
"edge": -0.0319,
"ev": -0.1149,
"implied_prob": 0.4595,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.4276
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5757,
"p_final_under": 0.4276,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4381,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5027,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4381,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.8
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "monitor",
"final_decision": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Polonia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4381,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5027,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Polonia at 49.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 59.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Polonia as the value side (49.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Polonia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Polonia \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.06 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +50% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1528885 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.06 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +43.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +43.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +43.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +43.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+43.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Polonia).",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +50% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1234,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.61,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5991,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4902,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6211180124223602,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2108,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 42.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.05 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.05
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.732,
"draw_prob": 0.2381,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4902,
"over_prob": 0.73,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"under_prob": 0.271,
"xg_diff": 0.05
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.1744,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.2717,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Bosnia y Herzegovina",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.61,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0547,
"ev": -0.1234,
"implied_prob": 0.5991,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4902,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Polonia"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1701,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.77,
"edge": 0.0355,
"market_prob": 0.5236,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.732,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1546,
"best_odd": 1.945,
"edge": -0.0322,
"ev": -0.136,
"implied_prob": 0.4764,
"model_prob": 0.268,
"p_final": 0.4442
},
"p_final": 0.559,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0105,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1701,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": 0.0355,
"ev": -0.0105,
"implied_prob": 0.5236,
"model_prob": 0.732,
"p_final": 0.559
}
},
"edge": 0.2113,
"ev": 0.3542,
"implied_prob": 0.5207,
"model_prob": 0.732,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.186,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"edge": 0.0353,
"market_prob": 0.5405,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.186,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": 0.0353,
"ev": 0.0133,
"implied_prob": 0.5405,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.5757
},
"p_final": 0.5757,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0133,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1694,
"best_odd": 2.07,
"edge": -0.0319,
"ev": -0.1149,
"implied_prob": 0.4595,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.4276
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1944,
"ev": 0.4381,
"implied_prob": 0.5356,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1528885,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4381,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2717,
"draw": 0.2381,
"home": 0.4902
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3542,
"implied_prob": 0.5207,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.732,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3542,
"implied_prob": 0.5207,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.732,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Bosnia y Herzegovina",
"home": "Polonia"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.399766,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4381,
"implied_prob": 0.5356,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1234,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.61,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5991,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4902,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6211180124223602,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2108,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1528885,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-25T19:16:44.772999+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga de Naciones de la UEFA — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Italia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Bélgica | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Turquía | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Italia | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | Francia | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Bélgica | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 4 | Turquía | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francia | 4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | +1.4 | 10 |
| 2 | Italia | 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | +0.6 | 7 |
| 3 | Turquía | 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | -0.6 | 0 |
| 4 | Bélgica | 4 | 0.6 | 2.0 | -1.4 | 6 |
