The model missed the final outcome (Bélgica win 0–2).
The model had projected Italia at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Italia Bélgica ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 3-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Bélgica win 0–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 19:16 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Italia 1.94 — Bélgica 1.85
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Bélgica win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Bélgica win · Italia 0–2 Bélgica
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"percent_away": "0%",
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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},
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}
},
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},
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}
],
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},
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{
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},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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},
"match_winner": {
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},
"over_under": {
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"label": "Away",
"market": "B\u00e9lgica Win",
"model_prob": 33.9,
"odds": 3.27
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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},
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"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-25 18:44:58",
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}
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
]
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},
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},
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},
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"text": "+25%+"
},
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},
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},
{
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"no": {
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},
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2952,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -29.5,
"text": "-29.5%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.2224,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 22.2,
"text": "+22.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2224,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 26.8,
"sort_key": 10200.16,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 73.2
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0561,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.6,
"text": "-5.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4401,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0073,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.7,
"text": "+0.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0879,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.8%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Italia",
"sort_key": 5205.84,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 804.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 8.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"alert_team": "B\u00e9lgica",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.28,
"hero_label": "B\u00e9lgica",
"market_prob_pct": 44.0,
"market_team": "Italia",
"model_prob_pct": 41.4,
"model_team": "Italia",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 56,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Italia)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Italia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2921,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2921,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 94,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Italia at 41.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Italia as the value side (41.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Italia",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "94 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Italia).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 90,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0561,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4401,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.45454545454545453,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0879,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 43.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.09 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.09
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 90,
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.28,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.28,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.85,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 44.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.94,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.94,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.94 \u00b7 Away xG 1.85 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +44%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"steam_team": "B\u00e9lgica",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Italia).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Italia)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Italia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2921,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2921,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 94,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Italia at 41.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Italia as the value side (41.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Italia",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "94 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Italia).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 90,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0561,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4401,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.45454545454545453,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0879,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 43.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.09 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.09
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Italia 1.94 xG vs B\u00e9lgica 1.85 \u2192 Italia 41.4%",
"Market: Italia ~44.0% implied",
"Market Drift: B\u00e9lgica odds \u2191 +6.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Italia with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.58,
"fair_prob": 41.43,
"label": "Italia",
"market_prob": 44.01,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.71,
"fair_prob": 24.67,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.38,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.28,
"fair_prob": 33.89,
"label": "B\u00e9lgica",
"market_prob": 29.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.35,
"fair_prob": 73.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.65,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.25,
"fair_prob": 27.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.35,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.15,
"fair_prob": 73.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.05,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.15,
"fair_prob": 26.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.95,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 4.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.89,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "B\u00e9lgica",
"market_prob_pct": 29.61,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "B\u00e9lgica"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.28,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Italia",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-2.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -2.6,
"model_prob_pct": 41.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-2.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -2.6,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 90,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Italia \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Italia 1.94 xG vs B\u00e9lgica 1.85 \u2192 Italia 41.4%",
"Market: Italia ~44.0% implied",
"Market Drift: B\u00e9lgica odds \u2191 +6.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Italia with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.28,
"hero_label": "B\u00e9lgica",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "B\u00e9lgica odds lengthened \u2191 +6.9%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on B\u00e9lgica.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on B\u00e9lgica."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on B\u00e9lgica (\u2191 +6.9%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on B\u00e9lgica."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.28,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 41.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 41.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "B\u00e9lgica",
"largest_gap_pp": 4.3,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.3,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.58,
"edge_pp": -2.58,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.43,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Italia",
"market_prob_pct": 44.01,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.71,
"edge_pp": -1.71,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.67,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.38,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.28,
"edge_pp": 4.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.89,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "B\u00e9lgica",
"market_prob_pct": 29.61,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on B\u00e9lgica.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Italia (44.0%).",
"However, B\u00e9lgica has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +6.9%, 9/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Italia \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 30.58,
"closing_odds": 3.27,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 30.58,
"entry_odds": 3.27,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.3
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 152h 48m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on B\u00e9lgica (6.9%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.27",
"3.08",
"2.90"
],
"display": "3.15 \u2192 2.70 \u2192 3.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 152h 48m",
"pick_team": "B\u00e9lgica",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.15"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.9,
3.27,
3.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,8.3",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.27"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.9,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 9/9 sportsbooks on B\u00e9lgica",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "B\u00e9lgica",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"open_odds": 2.9,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "B\u00e9lgica",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 56,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"open_odds": 2.9,
"pick_team": "B\u00e9lgica",
"steam_score": 56,
"steam_team_name": "B\u00e9lgica",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "belgium",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 1,
"away_team_display_name": "B\u00e9lgica",
"away_team_id": 1,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1.webp",
"away_team_name": "B\u00e9lgica",
"away_team_public_id": "3Nzan53zMxCASk",
"away_team_slug": "belgium",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1528883,
"goals_away": 1,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Italia",
"home_team_display_name": "Italia",
"home_team_id": 768,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/768.webp",
"home_team_name": "Italia",
"home_team_public_id": "4xRN4xP5ED9pkY",
"home_team_slug": "italy",
"ht.home_team_slug": "italy",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Liga de Naciones de la UEFA",
"league_id": 5,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/5.webp",
"league_name": "Liga de Naciones de la UEFA",
"league_public_id": "2RfJso86Xu4FQW",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-25 18:45:00",
"public_id": "0EN4fPP0gE0r2M",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Rome",
"venue_name": "Stadio Olimpico"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2808,
"best_odd": 3.27,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.012,
"ev": 0.0073,
"implied_prob": 0.2961,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2961,
"draw": 0.2638,
"home": 0.4401
},
"model_prob": 0.3387,
"p_final": 0.3081
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2923,
"best_odd": 3.67,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.005,
"ev": -0.0501,
"implied_prob": 0.2638,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2961,
"draw": 0.2638,
"home": 0.4401
},
"model_prob": 0.2467,
"p_final": 0.2588
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4328,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.011,
"ev": -0.0561,
"implied_prob": 0.4401,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2961,
"draw": 0.2638,
"home": 0.4401
},
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"p_final": 0.4291
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.27,
"edge": 0.0329,
"ev": 0.1076,
"implied_prob": 0.3058,
"model_prob": 0.3387
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.67,
"edge": -0.0258,
"ev": -0.0946,
"implied_prob": 0.2725,
"model_prob": 0.2467
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": -0.04,
"ev": -0.0879,
"implied_prob": 0.4545,
"model_prob": 0.4146
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1485,
"alpha_yes": 0.2042,
"best_no_odd": 2.63,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1215,
"edge_yes": 0.1215,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2952,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1185,
"ev_yes": 0.2224,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0412,
"implied_no": 0.3895,
"implied_yes": 0.6105,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": -0.0173,
"ev": -0.1185,
"implied_prob": 0.3846,
"model_prob": 0.268,
"p_final": 0.3673
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": 0.0238,
"ev": -0.0412,
"implied_prob": 0.6154,
"model_prob": 0.732,
"p_final": 0.6392
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3673,
"p_final_yes": 0.6392,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2008,
"alpha_under": 0.1463,
"best_over_odd": 1.77,
"best_under_odd": 2.36,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.64,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.25,
"edge_over": 0.1535,
"edge_under": -0.1525,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2921,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0015,
"ev_under": -0.3604,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.101,
"implied_over": 0.5765,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5784,
"implied_under": 0.4235,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4216,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2008,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": 0.0304,
"ev": -0.0015,
"implied_prob": 0.5784,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.6088
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1463,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": -0.022,
"ev": -0.101,
"implied_prob": 0.4216,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.3996
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6088,
"p_final_under": 0.3996,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2921,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2921,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2921,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.1
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Italia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2921,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2921,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 94,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Italia at 41.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Italia as the value side (41.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Italia",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "94 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Italia).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 90,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0561,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4401,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.45454545454545453,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0879,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 43.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.09 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.09
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.732,
"draw_prob": 0.2467,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4146,
"over_prob": 0.73,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"under_prob": 0.271,
"xg_diff": 0.09
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.011,
"ev": -0.0561,
"implied_prob": 0.4401,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Italia"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.5,
"edge": 0.0238,
"market_prob": 0.6154,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.732,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": -0.0173,
"ev": -0.1185,
"implied_prob": 0.3846,
"model_prob": 0.268,
"p_final": 0.3673
},
"p_final": 0.6392,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0412,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": 0.0238,
"ev": -0.0412,
"implied_prob": 0.6154,
"model_prob": 0.732,
"p_final": 0.6392
}
},
"edge": 0.1215,
"ev": 0.2224,
"implied_prob": 0.6105,
"model_prob": 0.732,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2008,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.64,
"edge": 0.0304,
"market_prob": 0.5784,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2008,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": 0.0304,
"ev": -0.0015,
"implied_prob": 0.5784,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.6088
},
"p_final": 0.6088,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0015,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1463,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": -0.022,
"ev": -0.101,
"implied_prob": 0.4216,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.3996
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1535,
"ev": 0.2921,
"implied_prob": 0.5765,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1528883,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2921,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3387,
"draw": 0.2467,
"home": 0.4146
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2224,
"implied_prob": 0.6105,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.732,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2224,
"implied_prob": 0.6105,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.732,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "B\u00e9lgica",
"home": "Italia"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.266541,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2921,
"implied_prob": 0.5765,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0561,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4401,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.45454545454545453,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0879,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1528883,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-25T19:16:23.106912+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga de Naciones de la UEFA — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Italia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Bélgica | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Turquía | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Italia | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | Francia | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Bélgica | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 4 | Turquía | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francia | 4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | +1.4 | 10 |
| 2 | Italia | 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | +0.6 | 7 |
| 3 | Turquía | 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | -0.6 | 0 |
| 4 | Bélgica | 4 | 0.6 | 2.0 | -1.4 | 6 |
