The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Slavia Mozyr at 35.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Slavia Mozyr Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Slavia Mozyr; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Jun 14, 2026 · 18:16 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Torpedo Zhodino 1.25 — Slavia Mozyr 1.35
-
Jun 14, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Torpedo Zhodino 1–1 Slavia Mozyr
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
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"over_under": {
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{
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{
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],
"market_intelligence": {
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"alert_breadth_note": "2/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -11.1%",
"alert_team": "Slavia Mozyr",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
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"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
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},
{
"edge_pp": -0.66,
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"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.63,
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"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.29,
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"label": "Slavia Mozyr",
"market_prob": 28.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.89,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.31,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.89,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.69,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.56,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.94,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.56,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.06,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 6.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.13,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Slavia Mozyr",
"market_prob_pct": 28.84,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Slavia Mozyr"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 6.29,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Slavia Mozyr",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_prob_pct": 28.8,
"model_prob_pct": 35.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Reliable prediction",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_tier": "reliable",
"summary": "The model and market both lean Slavia Mozyr, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Torpedo Zhodino remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.29,
"hero_label": "Slavia Mozyr",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Slavia Mozyr odds shortened \u2193 -11.1%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (2/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Slavia Mozyr.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Slavia Mozyr.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Slavia Mozyr.",
"Confirmation remains limited (2/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Slavia Mozyr."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Slavia Mozyr.",
"Recent line movement on Slavia Mozyr (\u2193 -11.1%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/7), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 6.29,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.2 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.2,
"max_prob_pct": 35.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -5.63,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.9,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Torpedo Zhodino",
"market_prob_pct": 40.53,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.97,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.63,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.13,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Slavia Mozyr",
"market_prob_pct": 28.84,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Slavia Mozyr.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Torpedo Zhodino (28.8%).",
"Slavia Mozyr has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -11.1%, 2/7).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Slavia Mozyr, Market \u2192 Torpedo Zhodino, Recent sharp money \u2192 Slavia Mozyr.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 30.67,
"closing_odds": 3.26,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 30.67,
"entry_odds": 3.26,
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "2/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.12,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -11.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 51h 53m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Slavia Mozyr (11.1%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_path": {
"display": "3.51 \u2192 2.90 \u2192 3.12",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 51h 53m",
"pick_team": "Slavia Mozyr",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.51"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.12"
}
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,11.5 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop"
},
"open_odds": 3.51,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Slavia Mozyr",
"ref_book": "Pinnacle",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/7",
"current_odds": 3.12,
"move_display": "\u2193 -11.1%",
"open_odds": 3.51,
"pick_team": "Slavia Mozyr",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_team_name": "Slavia Mozyr",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
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"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 751,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/751.webp",
"away_team_name": "Slavia Mozyr",
"country_code": "BY",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/by.svg",
"country_name": "Belarus",
"fixture_id": 1525894,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Belarus",
"home_team_id": 385,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/385.webp",
"home_team_name": "Torpedo Zhodino",
"league_country": "Belarus",
"league_id": 116,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/116.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Premier de Bielorrusia",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-14 17:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "Zhodino",
"venue_name": "Stadion Torpedo"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
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"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
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],
"breakdown_resolved": [
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"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
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"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2717,
"best_odd": 3.26,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0171,
"ev": -0.004,
"implied_prob": 0.2884,
"model_prob": 0.3513,
"p_final": 0.3055
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2971,
"best_odd": 3.07,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0019,
"ev": -0.0656,
"implied_prob": 0.3063,
"model_prob": 0.2998,
"p_final": 0.3044
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4119,
"best_odd": 2.32,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0232,
"ev": -0.1136,
"implied_prob": 0.4053,
"model_prob": 0.3489,
"p_final": 0.3821
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.8,
"best_yes_odd": 1.97,
"edge_no": -0.0656,
"edge_yes": 0.0656,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.181,
"ev_yes": 0.0736,
"implied_no": 0.5206,
"implied_yes": 0.4794,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.29,
"best_under_odd": 1.61,
"edge_over": 0.0689,
"edge_under": -0.0689,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1038,
"ev_under": -0.166,
"implied_over": 0.4131,
"implied_under": 0.5869,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1038,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2998,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3513,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0171,
"ev": -0.004,
"implied_prob": 0.2884,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3513,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Slavia Mozyr"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0656,
"ev": 0.0736,
"implied_prob": 0.4794,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0689,
"ev": 0.1038,
"implied_prob": 0.4131,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1525894,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1038,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3513,
"draw": 0.2998,
"home": 0.3489
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1038,
"implied_prob": 0.4131,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1038,
"implied_prob": 0.4131,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Slavia Mozyr",
"home": "Torpedo Zhodino"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.040112,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0736,
"implied_prob": 0.4794,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1525894,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-14T18:16:50.377853+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga Premier de Bielorrusia — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isloch Minsk Raion | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 45 |
| 2 | ML Vitebsk | 21 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 44 |
| 3 | Dinamo Minsk | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 43 |
| 4 | Dinamo Brest | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 40 |
| 5 | FC Gomel | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 39 |
| 6 | Neman Grodno | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 37 |
| 7 | Vitebsk | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 36 |
| 8 | FC Minsk | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 34 |
| 9 | Torpedo Zhodino | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 |
| 10 | Slavia Mozyr | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 25 |
| 11 | Baranovichi | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 25 |
| 12 | Arsenal Dzerzhinsk | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 23 |
| 13 | Belshina Bobruisk | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 21 |
| 14 | BATE Borisov | 22 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 18 |
| 15 | Dnepr Mogilev | 23 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 16 |
| 16 | Naftan | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 14 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ML Vitebsk | 21 | 42 | 17 | +25 | 44 |
| 2 | Dinamo Brest | 23 | 38 | 23 | +15 | 40 |
| 3 | Dinamo Minsk | 21 | 37 | 16 | +21 | 43 |
| 4 | Isloch Minsk Raion | 22 | 37 | 18 | +19 | 45 |
| 5 | FC Gomel | 23 | 33 | 18 | +15 | 39 |
| 6 | FC Minsk | 23 | 30 | 28 | +2 | 34 |
| 7 | Vitebsk | 23 | 28 | 21 | +7 | 36 |
| 8 | Torpedo Zhodino | 22 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 27 |
| 9 | Neman Grodno | 22 | 26 | 20 | +6 | 37 |
| 10 | Baranovichi | 23 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 25 |
| 11 | Arsenal Dzerzhinsk | 23 | 24 | 41 | -17 | 23 |
| 12 | Slavia Mozyr | 22 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 25 |
| 13 | Belshina Bobruisk | 22 | 22 | 36 | -14 | 21 |
| 14 | Dnepr Mogilev | 23 | 20 | 36 | -16 | 16 |
| 15 | Naftan | 23 | 20 | 54 | -34 | 14 |
| 16 | BATE Borisov | 22 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 18 |
