AI correctly predicted the Changwon City win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
A
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Changwon City Changwon City ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correcto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Changwon City win 2–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 04:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Changwon City 1.40 — Yangpyeong 1.20
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 05:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Changwon City win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Changwon City win · Changwon City 2–1 Yangpyeong
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Changwon City or draw",
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"winner_name": "Changwon City"
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"away_xg": 1.2,
"betting_insight": {
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"edge": -0.0934,
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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},
"betting_markets": {
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"home_played": 22,
"home_score_rate": 75.3,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "Yes",
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"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.2,
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{
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"source": "xG"
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
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"label": "Changwon City or Draw",
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{
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"label": "Changwon City or Yangpyeong",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Yangpyeong",
"prob": 60.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Changwon City or Yangpyeong",
"pick_prob": 70.5
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"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 30.6,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 39.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Changwon City"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
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"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Over 2.5",
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"edge": 21.5,
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"label": "Away",
"market": "Yangpyeong Win",
"model_prob": 30.6,
"odds": 3.97
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Yangpyeong",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 23.35,
"draw": 27.34,
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},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 04:59:02",
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"early_capture": "PRE30",
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"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Changwon City",
"largest_move_kind": "ou_o",
"max_abs_move_pp": 3.21,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
"label": "0-1",
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},
{
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},
{
"label": "1-2",
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}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.4,
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"yes": {
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},
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_no_display": {
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"raw_pct": -15.4,
"text": "-15.4%"
},
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"raw_pct": 5.9,
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},
"featured": true,
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{
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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},
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},
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.0,
"text": "+7.0%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1194,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.9,
"text": "-11.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.07,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10063.0,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1636,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.4,
"text": "-16.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4931,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0035,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.4,
"text": "+0.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2486,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.9%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Changwon City",
"sort_key": 5202.8,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +9.4%",
"alert_team": "Yangpyeong",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.37,
"hero_label": "Changwon City",
"market_prob_pct": 49.3,
"market_team": "Changwon City",
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"model_team": "Changwon City",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 37,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Changwon City)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Changwon City)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.07,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2131,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Changwon City at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Changwon City as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Changwon City",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Changwon City \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.23 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +21% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520561 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.23 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Changwon City).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10",
"Outlier price +21% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1636,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4931,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5319148936170213,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2486,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "4/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 82,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.37,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.37,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.2,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.4,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.4,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.40 \u00b7 Away xG 1.20 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.4,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +9.4%",
"steam_team": "Yangpyeong",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Changwon City).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Changwon City)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Changwon City)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.07,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2131,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Changwon City at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Changwon City as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Changwon City",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Changwon City \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.23 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +21% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520561 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.23 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Changwon City).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10",
"Outlier price +21% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1636,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4931,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5319148936170213,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2486,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Changwon City 1.40 xG vs Yangpyeong 1.20 \u2192 Changwon City 39.9%",
"Market: Changwon City ~49.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Yangpyeong odds \u2191 +9.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Changwon City with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.37,
"fair_prob": 39.94,
"label": "Changwon City",
"market_prob": 49.31,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.14,
"fair_prob": 29.48,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.23,
"fair_prob": 30.58,
"label": "Yangpyeong",
"market_prob": 23.35,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.68,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.52,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.68,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.48,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.08,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 48.22,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.08,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 51.78,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Changwon City",
"market_prob_pct": 49.31,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Yangpyeong"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Changwon City\u0027s win probability at 49.3%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 9.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.37,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Changwon City",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 49.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.4,
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 82,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Changwon City \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Changwon City 1.40 xG vs Yangpyeong 1.20 \u2192 Changwon City 39.9%",
"Market: Changwon City ~49.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Yangpyeong odds \u2191 +9.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Changwon City with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.37,
"hero_label": "Changwon City",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Yangpyeong odds lengthened \u2191 +9.4%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Yangpyeong has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Changwon City. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Yangpyeong \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.4% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Changwon City. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Yangpyeong has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Yangpyeong \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.4% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Changwon City above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Yangpyeong has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.4%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.37,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.4 pp (at 39.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 9.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Changwon City",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices Changwon City higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.4,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -9.37,
"edge_pp": -9.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Changwon City",
"market_prob_pct": 49.31,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.14,
"edge_pp": 2.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.34,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.23,
"edge_pp": 7.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Yangpyeong",
"market_prob_pct": 23.35,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Yangpyeong \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.4% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Changwon City (49.3%).",
"Yangpyeong odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +9.4%, 4/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Changwon City \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 53.19,
"closing_odds": 1.88,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 53.19,
"entry_odds": 1.88,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.1
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 55m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Yangpyeong (9.4%, 4/8) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Modest lengthening \u2014 treat as drift tracking rather than steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.97",
"3.58",
"3.20"
],
"display": "3.94 \u2192 3.20 \u2192 3.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 55m",
"pick_team": "Yangpyeong",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.94"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.2,
3.97,
3.94,
3.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,0.7 56.0,11.0",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.97"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.2,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Yangpyeong",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.4%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Yangpyeong",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 37,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.4%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"pick_team": "Yangpyeong",
"steam_score": 37,
"steam_team_name": "Yangpyeong",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "yangpyeong",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Yangpyeong",
"away_team_id": 7111,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7111.webp",
"away_team_name": "Yangpyeong",
"away_team_public_id": "4pRq6NiiGXtHO2",
"away_team_slug": "yangpyeong",
"country_code": "KR",
"country_display_name": "South-Korea",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/kr.svg",
"country_id": 144,
"country_name": "South-Korea",
"fixture_id": 1520561,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "South-Korea",
"home_team_display_name": "Changwon City",
"home_team_id": 7059,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7059.webp",
"home_team_name": "Changwon City",
"home_team_public_id": "3pZdclcQEWVbfs",
"home_team_slug": "changwon-city",
"ht.home_team_slug": "changwon-city",
"league_country": "South-Korea",
"league_country_display": "South-Korea",
"league_display_name": "K3 League",
"league_id": 295,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/295.webp",
"league_name": "K3 League",
"league_public_id": "21krHgODA2FZz0",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 05:00:00",
"public_id": "402ntPqOc4Hvt0",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2676,
"best_odd": 3.97,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0193,
"ev": 0.0035,
"implied_prob": 0.2335,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2335,
"draw": 0.2734,
"home": 0.4931
},
"model_prob": 0.3056,
"p_final": 0.2528
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2904,
"best_odd": 3.39,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0062,
"ev": -0.0521,
"implied_prob": 0.2734,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2335,
"draw": 0.2734,
"home": 0.4931
},
"model_prob": 0.2948,
"p_final": 0.2796
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.516,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0482,
"ev": -0.1636,
"implied_prob": 0.4931,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2335,
"draw": 0.2734,
"home": 0.4931
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"p_final": 0.4449
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.97,
"edge": 0.0537,
"ev": 0.2131,
"implied_prob": 0.2519,
"model_prob": 0.3056
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.39,
"edge": -0.0002,
"ev": -0.0008,
"implied_prob": 0.295,
"model_prob": 0.2948
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.88,
"edge": -0.1322,
"ev": -0.2486,
"implied_prob": 0.5319,
"model_prob": 0.3997
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2245,
"alpha_yes": 0.2041,
"best_no_odd": 1.85,
"best_yes_odd": 1.95,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0608,
"edge_yes": 0.0608,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1545,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.106,
"ev_yes": 0.0588,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0572,
"implied_no": 0.5178,
"implied_yes": 0.4822,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2245,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": -0.0139,
"ev": -0.106,
"implied_prob": 0.519,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.5051
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2041,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0572,
"implied_prob": 0.481,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4936
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.5051,
"p_final_yes": 0.4936,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2089,
"alpha_under": 0.2298,
"best_over_odd": 2.22,
"best_under_odd": 1.7,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.135,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.64,
"edge_over": 0.0468,
"edge_under": -0.0468,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.07,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0513,
"ev_under": -0.1194,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0904,
"implied_over": 0.4352,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4344,
"implied_under": 0.5648,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5656,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2089,
"best_odd": 2.135,
"edge": 0.0099,
"ev": -0.0513,
"implied_prob": 0.4344,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4444
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2298,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0109,
"ev": -0.0904,
"implied_prob": 0.5656,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5546
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4444,
"p_final_under": 0.5546,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.07,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2131,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.07,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.1
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Changwon City)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.07,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2131,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Changwon City at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Changwon City as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Changwon City",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Changwon City \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.23 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +21% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520561 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.23 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Changwon City).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10",
"Outlier price +21% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1636,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4931,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5319148936170213,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2486,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3997,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0482,
"ev": -0.1636,
"implied_prob": 0.4931,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Changwon City"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2041,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0127,
"market_prob": 0.481,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2245,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": -0.0139,
"ev": -0.106,
"implied_prob": 0.519,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.5051
},
"p_final": 0.4936,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0572,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2041,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0572,
"implied_prob": 0.481,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4936
}
},
"edge": 0.0608,
"ev": 0.0588,
"implied_prob": 0.4822,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2089,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.135,
"edge": 0.0099,
"market_prob": 0.4344,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2089,
"best_odd": 2.135,
"edge": 0.0099,
"ev": -0.0513,
"implied_prob": 0.4344,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4444
},
"p_final": 0.4444,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0513,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2298,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0109,
"ev": -0.0904,
"implied_prob": 0.5656,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5546
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0468,
"ev": 0.07,
"implied_prob": 0.4352,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1520561,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.07,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3056,
"draw": 0.2948,
"home": 0.3997
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Yangpyeong",
"home": "Changwon City"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031928,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0588,
"implied_prob": 0.4822,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1636,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4931,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5319148936170213,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2486,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1520561,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T04:59:07.127925+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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K3 League — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siheung Citizen | 23 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 55 |
| 2 | Pocheon | 24 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 49 |
| 3 | Daejeon Korail | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 41 |
| 4 | Busan Transportation | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 40 |
| 5 | Gyeongju HNP | 23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 35 |
| 6 | Dangjin Citizen | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 34 |
| 7 | Chuncheon | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 33 |
| 8 | Changwon City | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 29 |
| 9 | Ulsan Citizen | 24 | 8 | 4 | 12 | 28 |
| 10 | Yeoju Sejong | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 28 |
| 11 | Gangneung City | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 27 |
| 12 | Mokpo City | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 24 |
| 13 | Yangpyeong | 24 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 20 |
| 14 | Jeonbuk Motors II | 24 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 10 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dangjin Citizen | 24 | 47 | 39 | +8 | 34 |
| 2 | Busan Transportation | 24 | 42 | 30 | +12 | 40 |
| 3 | Chuncheon | 24 | 42 | 37 | +5 | 33 |
| 4 | Pocheon | 24 | 41 | 20 | +21 | 49 |
| 5 | Siheung Citizen | 23 | 37 | 20 | +17 | 55 |
| 6 | Gyeongju HNP | 23 | 35 | 31 | +4 | 35 |
| 7 | Daejeon Korail | 24 | 33 | 19 | +14 | 41 |
| 8 | Yangpyeong | 24 | 30 | 46 | -16 | 20 |
| 9 | Changwon City | 24 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 29 |
| 10 | Yeoju Sejong | 24 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 28 |
| 11 | Ulsan Citizen | 24 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 28 |
| 12 | Jeonbuk Motors II | 24 | 25 | 54 | -29 | 10 |
| 13 | Mokpo City | 23 | 22 | 36 | -14 | 24 |
| 14 | Gangneung City | 23 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 27 |
