The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected FBK Karlstad at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 FBK Karlstad Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · FBK Karlstad 1.30 — AFC Eskilstuna 1.30
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · FBK Karlstad 2–2 AFC Eskilstuna
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "35e3159236e6a8716fc26f3f1c6a3cf21332e8487372cbd588a64c41e439c540",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.3,
"away_win_prob": 0.3517,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.84,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.84,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.3,
"home_win_prob": 0.3517,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : FBK Karlstad or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "FBK Karlstad"
},
"away_xg": 1.3,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "FBK Karlstad",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0121,
"edge_gap": 0.0,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3638,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 35.2,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 35.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.52
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.52,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "FBK Karlstad Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.75,
"market_odds": 2.52,
"model_odds": 2.84,
"overround": 9.1,
"prob_edge": -4.5,
"value_pct": -11.3,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 7,
"away_failed_to_score": 5,
"away_played": 24,
"away_score_rate": 72.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 9,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 23,
"home_score_rate": 72.7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.3,
"home_expected": 1.3,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "FBK Karlstad or Draw",
"prob": 64.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "FBK Karlstad or AFC Eskilstuna",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or AFC Eskilstuna",
"prob": 64.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "FBK Karlstad or AFC Eskilstuna",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 35.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 35.2,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "FBK Karlstad"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.9,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 2.4,
"implied_prob": 28.9,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.46
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "AFC Eskilstuna",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 37.12,
"draw": 26.5,
"home": 36.38
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 12:59:47",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 12:32:35",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "FBK Karlstad",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.38,
"gap_pp": -1.21,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 35.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.5,
"gap_pp": 3.15,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.12,
"gap_pp": -1.94,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 35.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 58.12,
"gap_pp": -9.92,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.88,
"gap_pp": 9.92,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.52,
"early": 2.52,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.38,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.38,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.46,
"early": 3.46,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.5,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.5,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.47,
"early": 2.47,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.12,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.12,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.6,
"early": 1.6,
"implied_closing_pct": 58.12,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 58.12,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.22,
"early": 2.22,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.88,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.88,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 1.1,
"ev": 0.0962,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.7,
"market_prob": 0.1149,
"market_prob_pct": 11.5,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.3,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.16,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0119,
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"market_prob": 0.3808,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.16,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0119,
"ev": -0.0615,
"implied_prob": 0.3808,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3927
},
"p_final": 0.3927,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0875,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0615,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.22,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0163,
"ev": -0.1138,
"implied_prob": 0.6192,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6029
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1966,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 19.7,
"text": "+19.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1661,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.6,
"text": "-16.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1966,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10326.94,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1515,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.235,
"edge": 0.016,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"market_prob": 0.4126,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2084,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.022,
"ev": -0.1123,
"implied_prob": 0.5874,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5654
},
"p_final": 0.4286,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1577,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0421,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1515,
"best_odd": 2.235,
"edge": 0.016,
"ev": -0.0421,
"implied_prob": 0.4126,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4286
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.9,
"text": "-21.9%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1914,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 19.1,
"text": "+19.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1914,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10172.26,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0966,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.7,
"text": "-9.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3638,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.052,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.2,
"text": "-5.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1135,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.3%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "FBK Karlstad",
"sort_key": 1787.0,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"alert_team": "AFC Eskilstuna",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.15,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 36.4,
"market_team": "AFC Eskilstuna",
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"model_team": "FBK Karlstad",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FBK Karlstad)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FBK Karlstad)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1966,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1966,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 93,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FBK Karlstad at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FBK Karlstad as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FBK Karlstad",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "93 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FBK Karlstad).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 89,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0966,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3638,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3968253968253968,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1135,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 89,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.15,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.15,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"steam_team": "AFC Eskilstuna",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FBK Karlstad).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FBK Karlstad)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FBK Karlstad)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1966,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1966,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 93,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FBK Karlstad at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FBK Karlstad as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FBK Karlstad",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "93 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FBK Karlstad).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 89,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0966,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3638,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3968253968253968,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1135,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FBK Karlstad 1.30 xG vs AFC Eskilstuna 1.30 \u2192 FBK Karlstad 35.2%",
"Market: AFC Eskilstuna ~36.4% implied",
"Market Drift: AFC Eskilstuna odds \u2191 +6.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean FBK Karlstad with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -1.21,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "FBK Karlstad",
"market_prob": 36.38,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.15,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.5,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.95,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "AFC Eskilstuna",
"market_prob": 37.12,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.33,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.53,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.33,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.47,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.72,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.22,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.72,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.78,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 3.15,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.5,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "AFC Eskilstuna"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.15,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "FBK Karlstad",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 36.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-1.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -1.2,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-1.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -1.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 89,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "FBK Karlstad \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FBK Karlstad 1.30 xG vs AFC Eskilstuna 1.30 \u2192 FBK Karlstad 35.2%",
"Market: AFC Eskilstuna ~36.4% implied",
"Market Drift: AFC Eskilstuna odds \u2191 +6.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean FBK Karlstad with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.15,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "AFC Eskilstuna odds lengthened \u2191 +6.5%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, AFC Eskilstuna has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from AFC Eskilstuna \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.5% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, AFC Eskilstuna has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from AFC Eskilstuna \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.5% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, AFC Eskilstuna has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on AFC Eskilstuna."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.15,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 3.1,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.1,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -1.21,
"edge_pp": -1.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "FBK Karlstad",
"market_prob_pct": 36.38,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.15,
"edge_pp": 3.15,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.5,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.95,
"edge_pp": -1.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "AFC Eskilstuna",
"market_prob_pct": 37.12,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from AFC Eskilstuna \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.5% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers AFC Eskilstuna (36.4%).",
"However, AFC Eskilstuna has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +6.5%, 8/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 FBK Karlstad, Market \u2192 AFC Eskilstuna, while AFC Eskilstuna odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 28.9,
"closing_odds": 3.46,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 28.9,
"entry_odds": 3.46,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.1
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 75h 48m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"SBO led repricing on AFC Eskilstuna (6.5%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.47",
"2.38",
"2.30"
],
"display": "2.57 \u2192 2.22 \u2192 2.45",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 75h 48m",
"pick_team": "AFC Eskilstuna",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.57"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.22"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.3,
2.47,
2.45
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,2.1",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.47"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.3,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/9 sportsbooks on AFC Eskilstuna",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "AFC Eskilstuna",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "SBO",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"open_odds": 2.3,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "AFC Eskilstuna",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"open_odds": 2.3,
"pick_team": "AFC Eskilstuna",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_team_name": "AFC Eskilstuna",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "afc-eskilstuna",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "AFC Eskilstuna",
"away_team_id": 765,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/765.webp",
"away_team_name": "AFC Eskilstuna",
"away_team_public_id": "1o64XWeOyNN8wp",
"away_team_slug": "afc-eskilstuna",
"country_code": "SE",
"country_display_name": "Sweden",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
"country_id": 148,
"country_name": "Sweden",
"fixture_id": 1505284,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Sweden",
"home_team_display_name": "FBK Karlstad",
"home_team_id": 12622,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/12622.webp",
"home_team_name": "FBK Karlstad",
"home_team_public_id": "56t4Jd8tir5eLs",
"home_team_slug": "fbk-karlstad",
"ht.home_team_slug": "fbk-karlstad",
"league_country": "Sweden",
"league_country_display": "Sweden",
"league_display_name": "Ettan - Norra",
"league_id": 563,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/563.webp",
"league_name": "Ettan - Norra",
"league_public_id": "0nme5hw4ptdA6d",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 13:00:00",
"public_id": "1oWuEekb0SPfTp",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4369,
"best_odd": 2.47,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0085,
"ev": -0.1041,
"implied_prob": 0.3712,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3712,
"draw": 0.265,
"home": 0.3638
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3627
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2858,
"best_odd": 3.46,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.009,
"ev": -0.052,
"implied_prob": 0.265,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3712,
"draw": 0.265,
"home": 0.3638
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.274
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4419,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0053,
"ev": -0.0966,
"implied_prob": 0.3638,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3712,
"draw": 0.265,
"home": 0.3638
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3585
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.47,
"edge": -0.0531,
"ev": -0.1311,
"implied_prob": 0.4049,
"model_prob": 0.3518
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.46,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": 0.0257,
"implied_prob": 0.289,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": -0.0451,
"ev": -0.1135,
"implied_prob": 0.3968,
"model_prob": 0.3518
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.16,
"alpha_yes": 0.22,
"best_no_odd": 2.63,
"best_yes_odd": 1.53,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0772,
"edge_yes": -0.0772,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1966,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0615,
"ev_yes": -0.1661,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1138,
"implied_no": 0.3778,
"implied_yes": 0.6222,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.16,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0119,
"ev": -0.0615,
"implied_prob": 0.3808,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3927
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.22,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0163,
"ev": -0.1138,
"implied_prob": 0.6192,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6029
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3927,
"p_final_yes": 0.6029,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2084,
"alpha_under": 0.1515,
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.3,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.57,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.235,
"edge_over": -0.1033,
"edge_under": 0.1033,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1123,
"ev_under": 0.1914,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0421,
"implied_over": 0.5853,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5874,
"implied_under": 0.4147,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4126,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2084,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.022,
"ev": -0.1123,
"implied_prob": 0.5874,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5654
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1515,
"best_odd": 2.235,
"edge": 0.016,
"ev": -0.0421,
"implied_prob": 0.4126,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4286
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5654,
"p_final_under": 0.4286,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1966,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1966,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1966,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.1
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FBK Karlstad)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1966,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1966,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 93,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FBK Karlstad at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FBK Karlstad as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FBK Karlstad",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "93 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FBK Karlstad).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 89,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0966,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3638,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3968253968253968,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1135,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0053,
"ev": -0.0966,
"implied_prob": 0.3638,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "FBK Karlstad"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.16,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0119,
"market_prob": 0.3808,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.16,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0119,
"ev": -0.0615,
"implied_prob": 0.3808,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3927
},
"p_final": 0.3927,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0615,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.22,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0163,
"ev": -0.1138,
"implied_prob": 0.6192,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6029
}
},
"edge": 0.0772,
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.3778,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1515,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.235,
"edge": 0.016,
"market_prob": 0.4126,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2084,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.022,
"ev": -0.1123,
"implied_prob": 0.5874,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5654
},
"p_final": 0.4286,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0421,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1515,
"best_odd": 2.235,
"edge": 0.016,
"ev": -0.0421,
"implied_prob": 0.4126,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4286
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1033,
"ev": 0.1914,
"implied_prob": 0.4147,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1505284,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1966,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3518,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1914,
"implied_prob": 0.4147,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1914,
"implied_prob": 0.4147,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "AFC Eskilstuna",
"home": "FBK Karlstad"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.089453,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.3778,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0966,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3638,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3968253968253968,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1135,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1505284,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T12:59:48.965715+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para FBK Karlstad & AFC Eskilstuna!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Ettan - Norra — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockholm Internazionale | 26 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 60 |
| 2 | Arlanda | 26 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 48 |
| 3 | AFC Eskilstuna | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 47 |
| 4 | Hammarby Talang | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 45 |
| 5 | IF Karlstad | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 44 |
| 6 | FBK Karlstad | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 43 |
| 7 | Enköping | 25 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 42 |
| 8 | Karlberg | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 33 |
| 9 | Assyriska FF | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 32 |
| 10 | Umeå FC | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 32 |
| 11 | Gefle IF | 25 | 9 | 3 | 13 | 30 |
| 12 | Vasalund | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 28 |
| 13 | Sollentuna | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 27 |
| 14 | Piteå | 25 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 22 |
| 15 | Järfälla | 25 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 19 |
| 16 | Stocksund | 26 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 15 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockholm Internazionale | 26 | 63 | 21 | +42 | 60 |
| 2 | Hammarby Talang | 25 | 51 | 25 | +26 | 45 |
| 3 | AFC Eskilstuna | 26 | 48 | 37 | +11 | 47 |
| 4 | Arlanda | 26 | 46 | 31 | +15 | 48 |
| 5 | Stocksund | 26 | 45 | 64 | -19 | 15 |
| 6 | Assyriska FF | 25 | 43 | 45 | -2 | 32 |
| 7 | FBK Karlstad | 25 | 41 | 35 | +6 | 43 |
| 8 | IF Karlstad | 26 | 40 | 25 | +15 | 44 |
| 9 | Vasalund | 26 | 39 | 55 | -16 | 28 |
| 10 | Enköping | 25 | 38 | 40 | -2 | 42 |
| 11 | Karlberg | 26 | 36 | 44 | -8 | 33 |
| 12 | Umeå FC | 25 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 32 |
| 13 | Järfälla | 25 | 33 | 55 | -22 | 19 |
| 14 | Piteå | 25 | 30 | 46 | -16 | 22 |
| 15 | Gefle IF | 25 | 29 | 43 | -14 | 30 |
| 16 | Sollentuna | 26 | 27 | 36 | -9 | 27 |
