Prediction Audit: Al Arabi SC vs Al Jandal Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Al Arabi SC

May 13, 2026 - 16:10

2 1.45

3 1.25

xG Accuracy: 53%

Al Jandal

The model missed the final outcome (Al Jandal win 2–3).

The model had projected Al Arabi SC at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Al Arabi SC Al Jandal ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Al Jandal win 2–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

May 13, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Al Arabi SC 1.45 — Al Jandal 1.25
May 13, 2026 · 16:10 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Al Jandal win · 2–3
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Pending

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation pending

Market Compatibility 100/100

Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1612360

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Al Jandal win · Al Arabi SC 2–3 Al Jandal

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Division 1
Fixture: Al Arabi SC vs Al Jandal
Kickoff: 2026-05-13 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Al Arabi SC 1.45 — Al Jandal 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
Model: 62.5% · Implied: 38.8% · Probability edge: +23.7 pts · Est. EV: +53.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 37.5% · No 62.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Abha	34	24	5	5	77
2	Al-Faisaly FC	34	21	10	3	73
3	Al Diriyah	34	22	6	6	72
4	Al Ula	34	21	8	5	71
5	Al Orubah	34	20	5	9	65
6	Al Jabalain	34	17	8	9	59
7	Al-Raed	34	14	10	10	52
8	Al Zulfi	34	11	12	11	45
9	Al Taee	34	12	8	14	44
10	Al Wehda Club	34	12	7	15	43
11	Al Bukayriyah	34	12	7	15	43
12	Al Anwar	34	10	11	13	41
13	Jeddah Club	34	9	12	13	39
14	Al-Adalah	34	8	9	17	33
15	Al Jandal	34	8	8	18	32
16	Al Baten	34	5	7	22	22
17	Al Arabi SC	34	5	6	23	21
18	Al Jubail	34	3	5	26	14

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Al Diriyah	34	79	39	+40	72
2	Al-Faisaly FC	34	76	32	+44	73
3	Al Ula	34	72	33	+39	71
4	Abha	34	64	35	+29	77
5	Al-Raed	34	64	46	+18	52
6	Al Jabalain	34	59	38	+21	59
7	Al Orubah	34	56	38	+18	65
8	Al Anwar	34	53	54	-1	41
9	Al Wehda Club	34	52	58	-6	43
10	Al Taee	34	48	52	-4	44
11	Al Zulfi	34	46	45	+1	45
12	Al-Adalah	34	44	70	-26	33
13	Al Baten	34	39	69	-30	22
14	Al Bukayriyah	34	36	48	-12	43
15	Jeddah Club	34	34	51	-17	39
16	Al Jandal	34	34	60	-26	32
17	Al Jubail	34	28	73	-45	14
18	Al Arabi SC	34	24	67	-43	21