AI correctly predicted the Philadelphia Union win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
B-
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 3-1 2-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union | 58.4% | 71.4% | -13.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 22.9% | 17.7% | +5.2 pp | Model Higher |
| Real Salt Lake | 18.7% | 10.9% | +7.8 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Philadelphia Union's win probability at 71.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 58.4%, a difference of 13.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Philadelphia Union win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Philadelphia Union than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.27) — 3 goals materialised
- Philadelphia Union attacking xG significantly stronger (2.12 vs 1.15)
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Philadelphia Union higher (71.4% vs model 58.4%, 13.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Philadelphia Union win 2–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Oct 10, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Philadelphia Union 58.4% · Draw 22.9% · Real Salt Lake 18.7%
- xG · Philadelphia Union 2.12 — Real Salt Lake 1.15
-
Oct 10, 2026 · 23:12 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE20
- 1X2 odds · Philadelphia Union 1.30 · Draw 5.25 · Real Salt Lake 8.50
- Implied 1X2 · Philadelphia Union 71.4% · Draw 17.7% · Real Salt Lake 10.9%
- Bookmaker · bet365
-
Oct 10, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Philadelphia Union 1.30 · Draw 5.25 · Real Salt Lake 8.50
- Implied 1X2 · Philadelphia Union 71.4% · Draw 17.7% · Real Salt Lake 10.9%
- Bookmaker · bet365
-
Oct 10, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Philadelphia Union win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
50/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
- High xG deviation from league baseline (57%+)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Moderate model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
34/100
Betting Confidence
40/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.3
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Philadelphia Union win · Philadelphia Union 2–1 Real Salt Lake
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "60a39939add426a77599b9c6915c7767657524a29a0d75dc8437a72b8a1b1167",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.15,
"away_win_prob": 0.1872,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.387,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.613,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2291,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 5.34,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.36,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 1.71,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 2.12,
"home_win_prob": 0.5837,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.635,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.366
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Philadelphia Union",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Philadelphia Union"
},
"away_xg": 1.15,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Philadelphia Union",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.1086,
"edge_gap": 0.3549,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.6926,
"model_prob": 0.584,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 18.7,
"draw": 22.9,
"home": 58.4
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"odd": 1.4
},
{
"affi_link": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"odd": 1.38
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.36
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"odd": 1.36
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 1.36
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"odd": 1.35
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"odd": 1.34
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"odd": 1.33
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.4,
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"display_market": "Philadelphia Union Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.44,
"market_odds": 1.36,
"model_odds": 1.71,
"overround": 6.4,
"prob_edge": -12.9,
"value_pct": -18.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 6,
"away_played": 27,
"away_score_rate": 68.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 6,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 27,
"home_score_rate": 88.0,
"no_prob": 38.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 61.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 61.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.15,
"home_expected": 2.12,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 6.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Philadelphia Union or Draw",
"prob": 81.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Philadelphia Union or Real Salt Lake",
"prob": 77.1
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Real Salt Lake",
"prob": 41.6
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Philadelphia Union or Draw",
"pick_prob": 81.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 18.7,
"draw_pct": 22.9,
"home_pct": 58.4,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Philadelphia Union"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.27,
"away_avg_scored": 1.5,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 2.0,
"over_prob": 63.4,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 63.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.27,
"under_prob": 36.5
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"edge": 49.6,
"implied_prob": 12.5,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Real Salt Lake Win",
"model_prob": 18.7,
"odds": 8.0
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.0,
"ev": -0.0935,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "2-1",
"market_odds": 9.25,
"market_prob": 0.1081,
"market_prob_pct": 10.8,
"model_prob": 0.098,
"model_prob_pct": 9.8,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 6.9
}
]
},
"home_xg": 2.12,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3941,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.88,
"edge": 0.0162,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"market_prob": 0.3239,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.365,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5411,
"best_odd": 1.38,
"edge": -0.0228,
"ev": -0.0984,
"implied_prob": 0.6761,
"model_prob": 0.634,
"p_final": 0.6533
},
"p_final": 0.3401,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0512,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0204,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3941,
"best_odd": 2.88,
"edge": 0.0162,
"ev": -0.0204,
"implied_prob": 0.3239,
"model_prob": 0.365,
"p_final": 0.3401
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0997,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.0,
"text": "-10.0%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1388,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 13.9,
"text": "+13.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1388,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 63.4,
"sort_key": 10274.92,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 36.5,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.355,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.135,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.5,
"text": "-13.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.6931,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0214,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.1,
"text": "+2.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.584,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2087,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Philadelphia Union",
"sort_key": 5217.12,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5581,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.56,
"edge": 0.0125,
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"market_prob": 0.5906,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.613,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4059,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": -0.0091,
"ev": -0.0992,
"implied_prob": 0.4094,
"model_prob": 0.387,
"p_final": 0.4003
},
"p_final": 0.6031,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0437,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0592,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5581,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": 0.0125,
"ev": -0.0592,
"implied_prob": 0.5906,
"model_prob": 0.613,
"p_final": 0.6031
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0789,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.9,
"text": "-7.9%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0192,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.9,
"text": "-1.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0192,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 38.7,
"sort_key": 1795.2,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 61.3
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 809.4,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 9.8
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +39.1%",
"alert_team": "Real Salt Lake",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "Philadelphia Union",
"model_prob_pct": 58.4,
"model_team": "Philadelphia Union",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 69,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Philadelphia Union)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Philadelphia Union)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1388,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.496,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 67,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Philadelphia Union at 58.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 69.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Philadelphia Union as the value side (58.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Philadelphia Union",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Philadelphia Union \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.10 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +50% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1490517 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.10 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Philadelphia Union).",
"Decision strength: 7.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +50% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.135,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.355,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6931,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.584,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7380073800738007,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2087,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 57.0,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 57%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.97"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.97
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 86,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Moderate model lean",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (57%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 64,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.15,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 57.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.12,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.12,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.12 \u00b7 Away xG 1.15 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +57%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": 39.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +39.1%",
"steam_team": "Real Salt Lake",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 67,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 58,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Philadelphia Union)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Philadelphia Union)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1388,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.496,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 67,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Philadelphia Union at 58.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 69.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Philadelphia Union as the value side (58.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Philadelphia Union",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Philadelphia Union \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.10 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +50% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1490517 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.10 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Philadelphia Union).",
"Decision strength: 7.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +50% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.135,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.355,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6931,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.584,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7380073800738007,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2087,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 57.0,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 57%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.97"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.97
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Philadelphia Union 2.12 xG vs Real Salt Lake 1.15 \u2192 Philadelphia Union 58.4%",
"Market Drift: Real Salt Lake odds \u2191 +39.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Philadelphia Union projects stronger on expected goals (+0.97 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 58.37,
"label": "Philadelphia Union",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 22.91,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 18.72,
"label": "Real Salt Lake",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.69,
"fair_prob": 63.4,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 68.09,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.59,
"fair_prob": 36.5,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 31.91,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.93,
"fair_prob": 61.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.37,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.93,
"fair_prob": 38.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.63,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Philadelphia Union",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 69.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-10.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -10.9,
"model_prob_pct": 58.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-10.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -10.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 64,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Philadelphia Union \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 67,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 58,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Philadelphia Union 2.12 xG vs Real Salt Lake 1.15 \u2192 Philadelphia Union 58.4%",
"Market Drift: Real Salt Lake odds \u2191 +39.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Philadelphia Union projects stronger on expected goals (+0.97 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "Real Salt Lake odds lengthened \u2191 +39.1%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 35.5 pp (at 58.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 35.5,
"max_prob_pct": 58.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 58.37,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Philadelphia Union",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 22.91,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 18.72,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Real Salt Lake",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans Philadelphia Union (58.4%).",
"However, Real Salt Lake has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +39.1%, 9/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Philadelphia Union \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 12.5,
"entry_odds": 8.0,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +39.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 39.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +23.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "Waiting for Close",
"clv_status": "waiting",
"current_odds": 8.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +39.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 39.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 125h 15m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"9/9 books lengthened Real Salt Lake together (39.1% drift, score 69) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 39.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"8.00",
"6.88",
"5.75"
],
"display": "8.00 \u2192 5.42 \u2192 8.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 125h 15m",
"pick_team": "Real Salt Lake",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "8.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "5.42"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "8.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.75,
8.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "5.75"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "8.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "8.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.75,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Real Salt Lake odds \u2191 +39.1% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Real Salt Lake",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Real Salt Lake odds \u2191 +39.1% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 8.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +39.1%",
"open_odds": 5.75,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Real Salt Lake",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 69,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 8.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +39.1%",
"open_odds": 5.75,
"pick_team": "Real Salt Lake",
"steam_score": 69,
"steam_team_name": "Real Salt Lake",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "real-salt-lake",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Real Salt Lake",
"away_team_id": 1606,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1606.webp",
"away_team_name": "Real Salt Lake",
"away_team_public_id": "0OWng5n8yTVH22",
"away_team_slug": "real-salt-lake",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1490517,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "Philadelphia Union",
"home_team_id": 1599,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1599.webp",
"home_team_name": "Philadelphia Union",
"home_team_public_id": "45qkiUfMflY8LX",
"home_team_slug": "philadelphia-union",
"ht.home_team_slug": "philadelphia-union",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "Major League Soccer",
"league_id": 253,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/253.webp",
"league_name": "Major League Soccer",
"league_public_id": "2mZNhylXlUFt9l",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-10 23:30:00",
"public_id": "1Zme1AMvhcdIRD",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Philadelphia",
"venue_name": "Talen Energy Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1818,
"best_odd": 7.44,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.011,
"ev": 0.0214,
"implied_prob": 0.1262,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1262,
"draw": 0.1806,
"home": 0.6931
},
"model_prob": 0.187,
"p_final": 0.1373
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1855,
"best_odd": 5.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.009,
"ev": -0.0141,
"implied_prob": 0.1806,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1262,
"draw": 0.1806,
"home": 0.6931
},
"model_prob": 0.229,
"p_final": 0.1896
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5017,
"best_odd": 1.355,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0548,
"ev": -0.135,
"implied_prob": 0.6931,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1262,
"draw": 0.1806,
"home": 0.6931
},
"model_prob": 0.584,
"p_final": 0.6384
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 8.0,
"edge": 0.062,
"ev": 0.496,
"implied_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob": 0.187
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 5.63,
"edge": 0.0514,
"ev": 0.2895,
"implied_prob": 0.1776,
"model_prob": 0.229
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.1303,
"ev": -0.1824,
"implied_prob": 0.7143,
"model_prob": 0.584
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.4059,
"alpha_yes": 0.5581,
"best_no_odd": 2.38,
"best_yes_odd": 1.6,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0193,
"edge_yes": 0.0193,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0789,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0992,
"ev_yes": -0.0192,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0592,
"implied_no": 0.4063,
"implied_yes": 0.5937,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4059,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": -0.0091,
"ev": -0.0992,
"implied_prob": 0.4094,
"model_prob": 0.387,
"p_final": 0.4003
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5581,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": 0.0125,
"ev": -0.0592,
"implied_prob": 0.5906,
"model_prob": 0.613,
"p_final": 0.6031
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4003,
"p_final_yes": 0.6031,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5411,
"alpha_under": 0.3941,
"best_over_odd": 1.42,
"best_under_odd": 3.12,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.38,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.88,
"edge_over": -0.0469,
"edge_under": 0.0459,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0997,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0984,
"ev_under": 0.1388,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0204,
"implied_over": 0.6809,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6761,
"implied_under": 0.3191,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3239,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5411,
"best_odd": 1.38,
"edge": -0.0228,
"ev": -0.0984,
"implied_prob": 0.6761,
"model_prob": 0.634,
"p_final": 0.6533
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3941,
"best_odd": 2.88,
"edge": 0.0162,
"ev": -0.0204,
"implied_prob": 0.3239,
"model_prob": 0.365,
"p_final": 0.3401
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6533,
"p_final_under": 0.3401,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.27,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1388,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.496,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1388,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.4
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Philadelphia Union)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1388,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.496,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 67,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Philadelphia Union at 58.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 69.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Philadelphia Union as the value side (58.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Philadelphia Union",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Philadelphia Union \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.10 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +50% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1490517 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.10 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Philadelphia Union).",
"Decision strength: 7.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +50% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.135,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.355,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6931,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.584,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7380073800738007,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2087,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 57.0,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 57%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.97"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.97
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.613,
"draw_prob": 0.229,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.584,
"over_prob": 0.634,
"total_xg": 3.27,
"under_prob": 0.365,
"xg_diff": 0.97
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0214,
"implied_prob": 0.1262,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.187,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "longshot",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Real Salt Lake",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.355,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0548,
"ev": -0.135,
"implied_prob": 0.6931,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.584,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Philadelphia Union"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5581,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.56,
"edge": 0.0125,
"market_prob": 0.5906,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.613,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4059,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": -0.0091,
"ev": -0.0992,
"implied_prob": 0.4094,
"model_prob": 0.387,
"p_final": 0.4003
},
"p_final": 0.6031,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0592,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5581,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": 0.0125,
"ev": -0.0592,
"implied_prob": 0.5906,
"model_prob": 0.613,
"p_final": 0.6031
}
},
"edge": 0.0193,
"ev": -0.0192,
"implied_prob": 0.5937,
"model_prob": 0.613,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3941,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.88,
"edge": 0.0162,
"market_prob": 0.3239,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.365,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5411,
"best_odd": 1.38,
"edge": -0.0228,
"ev": -0.0984,
"implied_prob": 0.6761,
"model_prob": 0.634,
"p_final": 0.6533
},
"p_final": 0.3401,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0204,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3941,
"best_odd": 2.88,
"edge": 0.0162,
"ev": -0.0204,
"implied_prob": 0.3239,
"model_prob": 0.365,
"p_final": 0.3401
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0459,
"ev": 0.1388,
"implied_prob": 0.3191,
"model_prob": 0.365,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1490517,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1388,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.187,
"draw": 0.229,
"home": 0.584
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Real Salt Lake",
"home": "Philadelphia Union"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.050662,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1388,
"implied_prob": 0.3191,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.365,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.135,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.355,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6931,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.584,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7380073800738007,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2087,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1490517,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-10T20:29:51.004036+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Philadelphia Union & Real Salt Lake!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Major League Soccer — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 51 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 50 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 47 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 46 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 45 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 42 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 41 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | 37 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 36 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 33 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 32 |
| 12 | San Diego | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 32 |
| 13 | Austin FC | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 31 |
| 14 | Minnesota United | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 30 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 22 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 61 | 30 | +31 | 51 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 28 | 54 | 38 | +16 | 50 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 28 | 52 | 45 | +7 | 47 |
| 4 | Portland Timbers | 28 | 51 | 54 | -3 | 33 |
| 5 | San Jose Earthquakes | 28 | 50 | 40 | +10 | 46 |
| 6 | San Diego | 28 | 48 | 51 | -3 | 32 |
| 7 | Los Angeles FC | 29 | 44 | 31 | +13 | 42 |
| 8 | Minnesota United | 28 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 30 |
| 9 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 32 |
| 10 | Colorado Rapids | 28 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 37 |
| 11 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 29 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 36 |
| 12 | Seattle Sounders | 28 | 38 | 35 | +3 | 41 |
| 13 | Houston Dynamo | 28 | 36 | 34 | +2 | 45 |
| 14 | Austin FC | 28 | 36 | 51 | -15 | 31 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 28 | 35 | 68 | -33 | 22 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Louis City | 28 | 18.8 | 10.0 | +8.8 | 50 |
| 2 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 16.6 | 8.1 | +8.5 | 51 |
| 3 | Colorado Rapids | 28 | 13.8 | 8.2 | +5.6 | 37 |
| 4 | Portland Timbers | 28 | 20.5 | 16.0 | +4.5 | 33 |
| 5 | Minnesota United | 28 | 19.1 | 14.9 | +4.2 | 30 |
| 6 | Houston Dynamo | 28 | 13.2 | 12.3 | +0.9 | 45 |
| 7 | San Diego | 28 | 16.9 | 16.2 | +0.7 | 32 |
| 8 | San Jose Earthquakes | 28 | 14.3 | 14.1 | +0.2 | 46 |
| 9 | Los Angeles FC | 29 | 15.6 | 16.9 | -1.3 | 42 |
| 10 | FC Dallas | 28 | 12.6 | 15.2 | -2.6 | 47 |
| 11 | Seattle Sounders | 28 | 11.9 | 16.0 | -4.1 | 41 |
| 12 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | 15.1 | 21.1 | -6.0 | 32 |
| 13 | Austin FC | 28 | 10.6 | 18.6 | -8.0 | 31 |
| 14 | Sporting Kansas City | 28 | 11.6 | 19.8 | -8.2 | 22 |
| 15 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 29 | 13.1 | 23.8 | -10.7 | 36 |
