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{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "bd6f2402d0697b36370e7ec84e47f0931e726aa89c876e98e2d5f8cdba3d89c9",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
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"away_win_prob": null,
"btts_no_prob": 0.438,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.562,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": null,
"fair_odds_away": null,
"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.506,
"prediction_confidence": "none",
"under_25_prob": 0.494
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Namungo or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Namungo"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Namungo",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1076,
"edge_gap": 0.092,
"market": "1X2",
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"model_prob": 0.4177,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.6,
"draw": 25.7,
"home": 41.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": null
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 12,
"away_played": 23,
"away_score_rate": 47.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 7,
"home_failed_to_score": 9,
"home_played": 23,
"home_score_rate": 60.9,
"no_prob": 70.9,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 70.9,
"source": "stats",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 29.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.9,
"home_expected": 1.1,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 14.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 13.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 12.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.2
}
],
"source": "avg"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Namungo or Draw",
"prob": 90.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Namungo or Mbeya City",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Mbeya City",
"prob": 55.0
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Namungo or Draw",
"pick_prob": 90.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 10.0,
"draw_pct": 45.0,
"home_pct": 45.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Namungo"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.0,
"away_avg_scored": 0.8,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 0.7,
"over_prob": 32.3,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 67.7,
"source": "avg",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.0,
"under_prob": 67.7
},
"prob_source": null,
"value_bet_enhanced": null
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Mbeya City",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Namungo",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_d",
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.28,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.52,
"gap_pp": -10.76,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 41.77
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.88,
"gap_pp": -3.21,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 25.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 18.6,
"gap_pp": 13.97,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 32.57
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.74,
"gap_pp": -2.44,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 32.3
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 65.26,
"gap_pp": 2.44,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 67.7
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.71,
"early": 1.68,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.52,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.25,
"implied_early_pct": 52.77,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.11,
"early": 3.1,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.88,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.28,
"implied_early_pct": 28.6,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.83,
"early": 4.76,
"implied_closing_pct": 18.6,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.03,
"implied_early_pct": 18.63,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.63,
"early": 2.62,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.74,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.09,
"implied_early_pct": 34.83,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.4,
"early": 1.4,
"implied_closing_pct": 65.26,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.09,
"implied_early_pct": 65.17,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 14.0,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 14.9
}
},
"home_xg": 1.45,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0777,
"ev_yes": -0.2725,
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0777,
"no_prob": 70.9,
"sort_key": 10219.93,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 29.1
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1505,
"ev_under": 0.0155,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0155,
"over_prob": 32.3,
"sort_key": 5212.4,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 67.7,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.1944,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5252,
"max_ev": 0.0048,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side_label": "Namungo",
"sort_key": 5203.84,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 824.7,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-0",
"top_prob": 14.9
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 12194,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/12194.webp",
"away_team_name": "Mbeya City",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/tz.svg",
"country_name": "Tanzania",
"fixture_id": 1477231,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 12197,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/12197.webp",
"home_team_name": "Namungo",
"league_country": "Tanzania",
"league_id": 567,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/567.webp",
"league_name": "Ligi kuu Bara",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-21 18:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1581,
"best_odd": 4.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0221,
"ev": 0.0048,
"implied_prob": 0.186,
"model_prob": 0.3257,
"p_final": 0.208
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2856,
"best_odd": 3.11,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.1303,
"implied_prob": 0.2888,
"model_prob": 0.2567,
"p_final": 0.2796
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5032,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0541,
"ev": -0.1944,
"implied_prob": 0.5252,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
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}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.52,
"best_yes_odd": 2.5,
"edge_no": 0.1004,
"edge_yes": -0.1004,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0777,
"ev_yes": -0.2725,
"implied_no": 0.6086,
"implied_yes": 0.3914,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.63,
"best_under_odd": 1.5,
"edge_over": -0.0343,
"edge_under": 0.0343,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1505,
"ev_under": 0.0155,
"implied_over": 0.3573,
"implied_under": 0.6427,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0777,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.291,
"draw_prob": 0.2567,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
"over_prob": 0.323,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.677,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0541,
"ev": -0.1944,
"implied_prob": 0.5252,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Namungo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1004,
"ev": 0.0777,
"implied_prob": 0.6086,
"model_prob": 0.709,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0343,
"ev": 0.0155,
"implied_prob": 0.6427,
"model_prob": 0.677,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1477231,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0777,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3257,
"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4177
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Mbeya City",
"home": "Namungo"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.055089,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0777,
"implied_prob": 0.6086,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.709,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1477231,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-21T18:17:41.892389+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Ligi kuu Bara — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Africans | 23 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 54 |
| 2 | Simba | 23 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 52 |
| 3 | Azam | 23 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 46 |
| 4 | Singida Black Stars | 23 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 38 |
| 5 | Tabora United | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 37 |
| 6 | JKT Tanzania | 23 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 36 |
| 7 | Pamba Jiji | 24 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 33 |
| 8 | Dodoma Jiji | 24 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 33 |
| 9 | Mashujaa | 24 | 5 | 12 | 7 | 27 |
| 10 | Mtibwa Sugar | 24 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 26 |
| 11 | Coastal Union | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 25 |
| 12 | Fountain Gate | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 25 |
| 13 | Namungo | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 24 |
| 14 | Mbeya City | 23 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 21 |
| 15 | Tanzania Prisons | 23 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 17 |
| 16 | KMC | 24 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 9 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Africans | 23 | 52 | 8 | +44 | 54 |
| 2 | Simba | 23 | 42 | 9 | +33 | 52 |
| 3 | Azam | 23 | 33 | 9 | +24 | 46 |
| 4 | Tabora United | 24 | 30 | 22 | +8 | 37 |
| 5 | Singida Black Stars | 23 | 30 | 23 | +7 | 38 |
| 6 | JKT Tanzania | 23 | 23 | 22 | +1 | 36 |
| 7 | Pamba Jiji | 24 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 33 |
| 8 | Dodoma Jiji | 24 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 33 |
| 9 | Coastal Union | 23 | 22 | 29 | -7 | 25 |
| 10 | Mtibwa Sugar | 24 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 26 |
| 11 | Mbeya City | 23 | 18 | 34 | -16 | 21 |
| 12 | Namungo | 23 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 24 |
| 13 | Fountain Gate | 23 | 17 | 33 | -16 | 25 |
| 14 | KMC | 24 | 13 | 40 | -27 | 9 |
| 15 | Mashujaa | 24 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 27 |
| 16 | Tanzania Prisons | 23 | 12 | 32 | -20 | 17 |
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