Predictions / Football / Turkey. Süper Lig / Fatih Karagümrük vs Genclerbirligi

Prediction Audit: Fatih Karagümrük vs Genclerbirligi Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük
May 03, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.47
0 0.76
xG Accuracy: 71%
Genclerbirligi Genclerbirligi

AI correctly predicted the Fatih Karagümrük win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 0-0, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Fatih Karagümrük attacking xG significantly stronger (1.47 vs 0.76)
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Fatih Karagümrük win 1–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 03, 2026 · 10:10 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Fatih Karagümrük 1.47 — Genclerbirligi 0.76
  2. May 03, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Fatih Karagümrük win · 1–0
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Moderate model lean
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 15:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2519648

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds 1.9
CLV Pending
Final Result Fatih Karagümrük win · Fatih Karagümrük 1–0 Genclerbirligi
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 52.6%
  • Historical Bucket: 50–55% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Süper Lig
  • Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Genclerbirligi
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-03 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 52.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 17.8%
  • xG (showing): Fatih Karagümrük 1.47 — Genclerbirligi 0.76 (total xG ≈ 2.23)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 57.4% · Implied: 46.5% · Probability edge: +10.9 pts · Est. EV: +17.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 42.6% · No 57.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (15.8%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Süper Lig Süper Lig — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Galatasaray 34 24 5 5 77
2 Fenerbahce 34 21 11 2 74
3 Trabzonspor 34 20 9 5 69
4 Besiktas 34 17 9 8 60
5 Istanbul Basaksehir 34 16 9 9 57
6 Goztepe 34 14 13 7 55
7 Samsunspor 34 13 12 9 51
8 Rizespor 34 10 11 13 41
9 Konyaspor 34 10 10 14 40
10 Kocaelispor 34 9 10 15 37
11 Alanyaspor 34 7 16 11 37
12 Gazişehir Gaziantep 34 9 10 15 37
13 Kasimpasa 34 8 11 15 35
14 Genclerbirligi 34 9 7 18 34
15 Eyüpspor 34 8 9 17 33
16 Antalyaspor 34 8 8 18 32
17 Kayserispor 34 6 12 16 30
18 Fatih Karagümrük 34 8 6 20 30
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Galatasaray 34 77 30 +47 77
2 Fenerbahce 34 77 37 +40 74
3 Trabzonspor 34 61 39 +22 69
4 Besiktas 34 59 40 +19 60
5 Istanbul Basaksehir 34 58 35 +23 57
6 Samsunspor 34 46 45 +1 51
7 Rizespor 34 46 52 -6 41
8 Konyaspor 34 43 50 -7 40
9 Gazişehir Gaziantep 34 43 58 -15 37
10 Goztepe 34 42 32 +10 55
11 Alanyaspor 34 41 41 0 37
12 Genclerbirligi 34 36 47 -11 34
13 Eyüpspor 34 33 48 -15 33
14 Kasimpasa 34 33 49 -16 35
15 Antalyaspor 34 33 55 -22 32
16 Fatih Karagümrük 34 31 54 -23 30
17 Kayserispor 34 27 62 -35 30
18 Kocaelispor 34 26 38 -12 37
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Galatasaray 34 68.5 32.7 +35.8 77
2 Fenerbahce 34 65.0 30.1 +34.9 74
3 Besiktas 34 62.6 36.8 +25.8 60
4 Istanbul Basaksehir 34 53.5 42.7 +10.8 57
5 Goztepe 34 46.6 35.8 +10.8 55
6 Trabzonspor 34 50.4 43.9 +6.5 69
7 Samsunspor 34 43.8 40.1 +3.7 51
8 Rizespor 34 45.3 45.5 -0.2 41
9 Kocaelispor 34 30.1 33.2 -3.1 37
10 Konyaspor 34 44.0 47.4 -3.4 40
11 Gazişehir Gaziantep 34 44.4 50.8 -6.4 37
12 Alanyaspor 34 34.6 44.1 -9.5 37
13 Kayserispor 34 37.9 51.7 -13.8 30
14 Kasimpasa 34 30.3 44.5 -14.2 35
15 Fatih Karagümrük 34 33.2 48.0 -14.8 30
16 Genclerbirligi 34 34.9 51.4 -16.5 34
17 Eyüpspor 34 34.4 53.3 -18.9 33
18 Antalyaspor 34 27.8 55.2 -27.4 32
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