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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Hanwell Town Dover Athletic ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Dover Athletic win · Hanwell Town 1–2 Dover Athletic
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "76e5a5e956394037a7c24f5d3cc0292c1cb1bcbacad3cca982130f30553a9390",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.21,
"away_win_prob": 0.3103,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.457,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2951,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.22,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.53,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.39,
"home_win_prob": 0.3946,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Hanwell Town or draw and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Hanwell Town"
},
"away_xg": 1.21,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Hanwell Town",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0624,
"edge_gap": 0.0846,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3326,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 31.0,
"draw": 29.5,
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.67
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Hanwell Town Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 3.01,
"market_odds": 2.67,
"model_odds": 2.53,
"overround": 12.6,
"prob_edge": 2.1,
"value_pct": 5.5,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 1,
"away_score_rate": 70.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 75.1,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.21,
"home_expected": 1.39,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Hanwell Town or Draw",
"prob": 69.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Hanwell Town or Dover Athletic",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Dover Athletic",
"prob": 60.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Hanwell Town or Dover Athletic",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 31.0,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 39.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Hanwell Town"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 4.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 7.1,
"implied_prob": 27.5,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.5,
"odds": 3.63
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Dover Athletic",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 42.28,
"draw": 24.46,
"home": 33.26
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 14:03:47",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 13:44:39",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Hanwell Town",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.26,
"gap_pp": 6.24,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 39.49
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.46,
"gap_pp": 5.01,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.47
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.28,
"gap_pp": -11.25,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 31.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 61.66,
"gap_pp": -13.46,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.34,
"gap_pp": 13.46,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.67,
"early": 2.67,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.26,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.26,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.63,
"early": 3.63,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.46,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.46,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.1,
"early": 2.1,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.28,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 42.28,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.48,
"early": 1.48,
"implied_closing_pct": 61.66,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 61.66,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.38,
"early": 2.38,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.34,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 38.34,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 1.5,
"ev": 0.1313,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 9.05,
"market_prob": 0.1105,
"market_prob_pct": 11.0,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.39,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1449,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"edge": 0.0188,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"market_prob": 0.388,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1992,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0259,
"ev": -0.1267,
"implied_prob": 0.612,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5861
},
"p_final": 0.4069,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2173,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0439,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1449,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.0439,
"implied_prob": 0.388,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4069
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2433,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -24.3,
"text": "-24.3%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2691,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 26.9,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2691,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10392.19,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1555,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0141,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.3664,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1555,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0141,
"ev": -0.0525,
"implied_prob": 0.3664,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.3805
},
"p_final": 0.3805,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1379,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0525,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2139,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0194,
"ev": -0.1155,
"implied_prob": 0.6336,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.6142
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1653,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 16.5,
"text": "+16.5%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2127,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.3,
"text": "-21.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1653,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 10148.77,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Hanwell Town, but the model still strongly favours Hanwell Town.",
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0441,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.4,
"text": "-4.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3326,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0441,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.4,
"text": "-4.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0544,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Hanwell Town",
"sort_key": 1788.975,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.25,
"hero_label": "Dover Athletic",
"market_prob_pct": 33.3,
"market_team": "Dover Athletic",
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_team": "Hanwell Town",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Hanwell Town, but the model still strongly favours Hanwell Town."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Hanwell Town, but the model still strongly favours Hanwell Town."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2691,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2691,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hanwell Town at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hanwell Town as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Hanwell Town, but the model still strongly favours Hanwell Town.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hanwell Town",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Hanwell Town, but the model still strongly favours Hanwell Town.",
"Decision strength: 3.1/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Hanwell Town, but the model still strongly favours Hanwell Town.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0441,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3326,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37453183520599254,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0544,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.875,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.8,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 64,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.25,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.25,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.21,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.39,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.39 \u00b7 Away xG 1.21 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Hanwell Town",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Hanwell Town, but the model still strongly favours Hanwell Town.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Hanwell Town, but the model still strongly favours Hanwell Town."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Hanwell Town, but the model still strongly favours Hanwell Town."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2691,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2691,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hanwell Town at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hanwell Town as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Hanwell Town, but the model still strongly favours Hanwell Town.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hanwell Town",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Hanwell Town, but the model still strongly favours Hanwell Town.",
"Decision strength: 3.1/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Hanwell Town, but the model still strongly favours Hanwell Town.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0441,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3326,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37453183520599254,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0544,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Hanwell Town, but the model still strongly favours Hanwell Town.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hanwell Town 1.39 xG vs Dover Athletic 1.21 \u2192 Hanwell Town 39.5%",
"Market: Dover Athletic ~33.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Hanwell Town +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Hanwell Town with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 6.2,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "Hanwell Town",
"market_prob": 33.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.05,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.46,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.25,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "Dover Athletic",
"market_prob": 42.28,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.73,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.93,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.73,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.07,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.01,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 63.31,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.01,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 36.69,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.25,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Dover Athletic",
"market_prob_pct": 42.28,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Hanwell Town"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Dover Athletic\u0027s win probability at 42.3%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 11.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.25,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Hanwell Town",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 33.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+6.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 6.2,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+6.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 64,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has repriced Hanwell Town, but the model still strongly favours Hanwell Town. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hanwell Town 1.39 xG vs Dover Athletic 1.21 \u2192 Hanwell Town 39.5%",
"Market: Dover Athletic ~33.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Hanwell Town +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Hanwell Town with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.25,
"hero_label": "Dover Athletic",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Dover Athletic is the dominant side.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Dover Athletic than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Dover Athletic than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Dover Athletic than the current fair estimate.",
"Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Dover Athletic is the dominant side."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Dover Athletic more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Dover Athletic (pricing gap 11.2 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.25,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Dover Athletic",
"largest_gap_pp": -11.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Dover Athletic higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 6.2,
"edge_pp": 6.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Hanwell Town",
"market_prob_pct": 33.26,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.05,
"edge_pp": 5.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.46,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -11.25,
"edge_pp": -11.25,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Dover Athletic",
"market_prob_pct": 42.28,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Dover Athletic than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Dover Athletic (33.3%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Hanwell Town, Market \u2192 Dover Athletic, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 47.62,
"closing_odds": 2.1,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 47.62,
"entry_odds": 2.1,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE10",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"pick_team": "Hanwell Town",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_team_name": "Hanwell Town",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "dover",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Dover Athletic",
"away_team_id": 1829,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1829.webp",
"away_team_name": "Dover Athletic",
"away_team_public_id": "26nzV312XExpxl",
"away_team_slug": "dover",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1641109,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Hanwell Town",
"home_team_id": 7645,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7645.webp",
"home_team_name": "Hanwell Town",
"home_team_public_id": "1gETcHEXzm7xcR",
"home_team_slug": "hanwell-town",
"ht.home_team_slug": "hanwell-town",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "FA Cup",
"league_id": 45,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/45.webp",
"league_name": "FA Cup",
"league_public_id": "3qBU7du2W45n9v",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 14:00:00",
"public_id": "2ufc9wlB7PX86y",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3741,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0421,
"ev": -0.2004,
"implied_prob": 0.4228,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4228,
"draw": 0.2446,
"home": 0.3326
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.3807
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2774,
"best_odd": 3.63,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": -0.0616,
"implied_prob": 0.2446,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4228,
"draw": 0.2446,
"home": 0.3326
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.2585
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4079,
"best_odd": 2.67,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0254,
"ev": -0.0441,
"implied_prob": 0.3326,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4228,
"draw": 0.2446,
"home": 0.3326
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.358
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": -0.1659,
"ev": -0.3483,
"implied_prob": 0.4762,
"model_prob": 0.3103
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.63,
"edge": 0.0193,
"ev": 0.0699,
"implied_prob": 0.2755,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.67,
"edge": 0.0204,
"ev": 0.0545,
"implied_prob": 0.3745,
"model_prob": 0.3949
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1555,
"alpha_yes": 0.2139,
"best_no_odd": 2.55,
"best_yes_odd": 1.45,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0901,
"edge_yes": -0.0901,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1653,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0525,
"ev_yes": -0.2127,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1155,
"implied_no": 0.3669,
"implied_yes": 0.6331,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1555,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0141,
"ev": -0.0525,
"implied_prob": 0.3664,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.3805
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2139,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0194,
"ev": -0.1155,
"implied_prob": 0.6336,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.6142
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.3805,
"p_final_yes": 0.6142,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1992,
"alpha_under": 0.1449,
"best_over_odd": 1.57,
"best_under_odd": 2.45,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.49,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.35,
"edge_over": -0.1273,
"edge_under": 0.1273,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2433,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1267,
"ev_under": 0.2691,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0439,
"implied_over": 0.6093,
"implied_over_mf": 0.612,
"implied_under": 0.3907,
"implied_under_mf": 0.388,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1992,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0259,
"ev": -0.1267,
"implied_prob": 0.612,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5861
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1449,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.0439,
"implied_prob": 0.388,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4069
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5861,
"p_final_under": 0.4069,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2691,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2691,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2691,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.1
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Hanwell Town, but the model still strongly favours Hanwell Town."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2691,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2691,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hanwell Town at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hanwell Town as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Hanwell Town, but the model still strongly favours Hanwell Town.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hanwell Town",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Hanwell Town, but the model still strongly favours Hanwell Town.",
"Decision strength: 3.1/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Hanwell Town, but the model still strongly favours Hanwell Town.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0441,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3326,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37453183520599254,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0544,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0254,
"ev": -0.0441,
"implied_prob": 0.3326,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Hanwell Town"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1555,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0141,
"market_prob": 0.3664,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1555,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0141,
"ev": -0.0525,
"implied_prob": 0.3664,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.3805
},
"p_final": 0.3805,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0525,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2139,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0194,
"ev": -0.1155,
"implied_prob": 0.6336,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.6142
}
},
"edge": 0.0901,
"ev": 0.1653,
"implied_prob": 0.3669,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1449,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"edge": 0.0188,
"market_prob": 0.388,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1992,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0259,
"ev": -0.1267,
"implied_prob": 0.612,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5861
},
"p_final": 0.4069,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0439,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1449,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.0439,
"implied_prob": 0.388,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4069
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1273,
"ev": 0.2691,
"implied_prob": 0.3907,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1641109,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2691,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3103,
"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3949
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1653,
"implied_prob": 0.3669,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1653,
"implied_prob": 0.3669,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Dover Athletic",
"home": "Hanwell Town"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.097576,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2691,
"implied_prob": 0.3907,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0441,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3326,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37453183520599254,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0544,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1641109,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T14:03:48.911301+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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