Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (7 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Chesham United Chesham United ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Chesham United win · Chesham United 4–3 Real Bedford
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "815af132fd57e5509c38b8b87aa2b57d45c0b1788d96bebb1b9167cb82236fa5",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.3,
"away_win_prob": 0.3517,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.84,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.84,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.3,
"home_win_prob": 0.3517,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : Chesham United and +3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Chesham United"
},
"away_xg": 1.3,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Chesham United",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1007,
"edge_gap": 0.0,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4525,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 35.2,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 35.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.95
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.95,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Chesham United Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.21,
"market_odds": 1.95,
"model_odds": 2.84,
"overround": 13.3,
"prob_edge": -16.1,
"value_pct": -31.3,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 2,
"away_score_rate": 72.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 1,
"home_score_rate": 72.7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.3,
"home_expected": 1.3,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Chesham United or Draw",
"prob": 64.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Chesham United or Real Bedford",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Real Bedford",
"prob": 64.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Chesham United or Real Bedford",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 35.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 35.2,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Chesham United"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 3.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 7.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 28.8,
"implied_prob": 23.0,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 4.35
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Real Bedford",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 34.47,
"draw": 20.28,
"home": 45.25
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 14:03:28",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 13:44:19",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Chesham United",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.25,
"gap_pp": -10.07,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 35.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 20.28,
"gap_pp": 9.36,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.47,
"gap_pp": 0.71,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 35.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 64.23,
"gap_pp": -16.03,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.77,
"gap_pp": 16.03,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.95,
"early": 1.95,
"implied_closing_pct": 45.25,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 45.25,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.35,
"early": 4.35,
"implied_closing_pct": 20.28,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 20.28,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.56,
"early": 2.56,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.47,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 34.47,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.42,
"early": 1.42,
"implied_closing_pct": 64.23,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 64.23,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.55,
"early": 2.55,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.77,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.77,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 16.0,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 2.2,
"ev": 0.2096,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 9.6,
"market_prob": 0.1042,
"market_prob_pct": 10.4,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.3,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1374,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0217,
"edge_pp": 2.2,
"market_prob": 0.3604,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.189,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": -0.0298,
"ev": -0.1341,
"implied_prob": 0.6396,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6098
},
"p_final": 0.3821,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3054,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0372,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1374,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0217,
"ev": -0.0372,
"implied_prob": 0.3604,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3821
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.277,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -27.7,
"text": "-27.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.44,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 44.0,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.44,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10546.0,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1512,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.62,
"edge": 0.0161,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"market_prob": 0.3483,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1512,
"best_odd": 2.62,
"edge": 0.0161,
"ev": -0.0453,
"implied_prob": 0.3483,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3644
},
"p_final": 0.3644,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1921,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0453,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2079,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0222,
"ev": -0.1186,
"implied_prob": 0.6517,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6296
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2922,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 29.2,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2261,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.6,
"text": "-22.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2922,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10262.98,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Real Bedford, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2177,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.8,
"text": "-21.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4525,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0476,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.8,
"text": "-4.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.314,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Chesham United",
"sort_key": 1788.1,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -23.2%",
"alert_team": "Real Bedford",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.08,
"hero_label": "Chesham United",
"market_prob_pct": 45.2,
"market_team": "Chesham United",
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"model_team": "Chesham United",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 94,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Real Bedford, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Real Bedford, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.44,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.44,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chesham United at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chesham United as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Real Bedford, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chesham United",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +44.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +44.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +44.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+44.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Real Bedford, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Real Bedford, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2177,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4525,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.314,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (10 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 58,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.08,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.08,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -23.2,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -23.2%",
"steam_team": "Real Bedford",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Real Bedford, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Real Bedford, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Real Bedford, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.44,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.44,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chesham United at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chesham United as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Real Bedford, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chesham United",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +44.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +44.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +44.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+44.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Real Bedford, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Real Bedford, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2177,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4525,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.314,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Real Bedford, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Chesham United 1.30 xG vs Real Bedford 1.30 \u2192 Chesham United 35.2%",
"Market: Chesham United ~45.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Real Bedford \u2193 -23.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Chesham United, but sharp money moved toward Real Bedford.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -10.08,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Chesham United",
"market_prob": 45.25,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.37,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 20.28,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Real Bedford",
"market_prob": 34.47,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.96,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 64.16,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.96,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 35.84,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.11,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 65.61,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.11,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 34.39,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Chesham United",
"market_prob_pct": 45.25,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Real Bedford"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Chesham United\u0027s win probability at 45.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 10.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.08,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Chesham United",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 45.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-10.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -10.0,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-10.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -10.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 58,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Real Bedford, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Chesham United 1.30 xG vs Real Bedford 1.30 \u2192 Chesham United 35.2%",
"Market: Chesham United ~45.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Real Bedford \u2193 -23.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Chesham United, but sharp money moved toward Real Bedford.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.08,
"hero_label": "Chesham United",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Real Bedford odds shortened \u2193 -23.2%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Real Bedford, with odds shortening by 23.2%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Chesham United than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Real Bedford \u2014 odds shortened by 23.2%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Chesham United than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Real Bedford, with odds shortening by 23.2%.",
"Buying interest on Real Bedford \u2014 odds shortened by 23.2%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Chesham United more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Real Bedford has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 23.2%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/8) supports the current market view on Real Bedford."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.08,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Chesham United",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Chesham United higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -10.08,
"edge_pp": -10.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Chesham United",
"market_prob_pct": 45.25,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.37,
"edge_pp": 9.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 20.28,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.7,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Real Bedford",
"market_prob_pct": 34.47,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Real Bedford \u2014 odds shortened by 23.2%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Chesham United (45.2%).",
"However, Real Bedford has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -23.2%, 6/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Chesham United, Market \u2192 Chesham United, Recent sharp money \u2192 Real Bedford.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 51.28,
"closing_odds": 1.95,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 51.28,
"entry_odds": 1.95,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE10",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -23.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -23.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -21.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -21.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -19.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -19.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.0
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -23.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 23.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 54h 9m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"6/8 books synchronized on Real Bedford (23.2% steam, score 94) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -23.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.75",
"3.16",
"2.56"
],
"display": "3.80 \u2192 2.80 \u2192 2.88",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 54h 9m",
"pick_team": "Real Bedford",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.88"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.75,
2.56,
2.88
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,13.2",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.56"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.88"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.75,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Real Bedford \u2193 -23.2% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Real Bedford",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Real Bedford \u2193 -23.2% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.88,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -23.2%",
"open_odds": 3.75,
"summary": "Market moved toward Real Bedford while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Real Bedford",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 94,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"move_display": "\u2193 -23.2%",
"open_odds": 3.75,
"pick_team": "Real Bedford",
"steam_score": 94,
"steam_team_name": "Real Bedford",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "real-bedford",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Real Bedford",
"away_team_id": 21712,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/21712.webp",
"away_team_name": "Real Bedford",
"away_team_public_id": "5oB8Dc05N3OHh1",
"away_team_slug": "real-bedford",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1641106,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Chesham United",
"home_team_id": 4702,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4702.webp",
"home_team_name": "Chesham United",
"home_team_public_id": "5HOPEDAO6k94xU",
"home_team_slug": "chesham-united",
"ht.home_team_slug": "chesham-united",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "FA Cup",
"league_id": 45,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/45.webp",
"league_name": "FA Cup",
"league_public_id": "3qBU7du2W45n9v",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 14:00:00",
"public_id": "0iGENMyDPWwmll",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4452,
"best_odd": 2.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0032,
"ev": -0.1095,
"implied_prob": 0.3447,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3447,
"draw": 0.2028,
"home": 0.4525
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3478
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1719,
"best_odd": 4.35,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0161,
"ev": -0.0476,
"implied_prob": 0.2028,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3447,
"draw": 0.2028,
"home": 0.4525
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2189
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5094,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0513,
"ev": -0.2177,
"implied_prob": 0.4525,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3447,
"draw": 0.2028,
"home": 0.4525
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.4012
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.56,
"edge": -0.0389,
"ev": -0.0995,
"implied_prob": 0.3906,
"model_prob": 0.3518
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.35,
"edge": 0.0666,
"ev": 0.2896,
"implied_prob": 0.2299,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.161,
"ev": -0.314,
"implied_prob": 0.5128,
"model_prob": 0.3518
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1512,
"alpha_yes": 0.2079,
"best_no_odd": 2.84,
"best_yes_odd": 1.42,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1111,
"edge_yes": -0.1111,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2922,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0453,
"ev_yes": -0.2261,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1186,
"implied_no": 0.3439,
"implied_yes": 0.6561,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1512,
"best_odd": 2.62,
"edge": 0.0161,
"ev": -0.0453,
"implied_prob": 0.3483,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3644
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2079,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0222,
"ev": -0.1186,
"implied_prob": 0.6517,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6296
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.3644,
"p_final_yes": 0.6296,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.189,
"alpha_under": 0.1374,
"best_over_odd": 1.5,
"best_under_odd": 2.78,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.42,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.52,
"edge_over": -0.1596,
"edge_under": 0.1596,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.277,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1341,
"ev_under": 0.44,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0372,
"implied_over": 0.6416,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6396,
"implied_under": 0.3584,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3604,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.189,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": -0.0298,
"ev": -0.1341,
"implied_prob": 0.6396,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6098
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1374,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0217,
"ev": -0.0372,
"implied_prob": 0.3604,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3821
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6098,
"p_final_under": 0.3821,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.44,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.44,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.44,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Real Bedford, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.44,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.44,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chesham United at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chesham United as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Real Bedford, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chesham United",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +44.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +44.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +44.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+44.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Real Bedford, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Real Bedford, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2177,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4525,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.314,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0513,
"ev": -0.2177,
"implied_prob": 0.4525,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Chesham United"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1512,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.62,
"edge": 0.0161,
"market_prob": 0.3483,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1512,
"best_odd": 2.62,
"edge": 0.0161,
"ev": -0.0453,
"implied_prob": 0.3483,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3644
},
"p_final": 0.3644,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0453,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2079,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0222,
"ev": -0.1186,
"implied_prob": 0.6517,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6296
}
},
"edge": 0.1111,
"ev": 0.2922,
"implied_prob": 0.3439,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1374,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0217,
"market_prob": 0.3604,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.189,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": -0.0298,
"ev": -0.1341,
"implied_prob": 0.6396,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6098
},
"p_final": 0.3821,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0372,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1374,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0217,
"ev": -0.0372,
"implied_prob": 0.3604,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3821
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1596,
"ev": 0.44,
"implied_prob": 0.3584,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1641106,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.44,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3518,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2922,
"implied_prob": 0.3439,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2922,
"implied_prob": 0.3439,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Real Bedford",
"home": "Chesham United"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.159544,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.44,
"implied_prob": 0.3584,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2177,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4525,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.314,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1641106,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T14:03:30.652968+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Chesham United & Real Bedford!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
