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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Bonaire Granada ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Granada win · Bonaire 2–3 Granada
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "041965983debaa19b0db971ee2ac764b447df6f2e9964fa9b35c3ce631723fc2",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"away_win_prob": 0.3424,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.92,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.77,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"home_win_prob": 0.3611,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Bonaire or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "0%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "50%",
"winner_name": "Bonaire"
},
"away_xg": 1.28,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Bonaire",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1456,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2154,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.2,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 36.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 4.25
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 4.25,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Bonaire Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 4.64,
"market_odds": 4.25,
"model_odds": 2.77,
"overround": 9.3,
"prob_edge": 12.6,
"value_pct": 53.4,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 1,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 1,
"home_score_rate": 73.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.28,
"home_expected": 1.32,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Bonaire or Draw",
"prob": 65.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Bonaire or Granada",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Granada",
"prob": 63.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Bonaire or Granada",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Bonaire"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 53.4,
"implied_prob": 23.5,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Bonaire Win",
"model_prob": 36.1,
"odds": 4.25
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Granada",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 53.52,
"draw": 24.94,
"home": 21.54
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-02 23:59:37",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-02 23:29:33",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Bonaire",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 21.54,
"gap_pp": 14.56,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.94,
"gap_pp": 4.73,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.52,
"gap_pp": -19.29,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.76,
"gap_pp": 0.44,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.24,
"gap_pp": -0.44,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 4.25,
"early": 4.25,
"implied_closing_pct": 21.54,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 21.54,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.67,
"early": 3.67,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.94,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.94,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.71,
"early": 1.71,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.52,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.52,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.98,
"early": 1.98,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.76,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 47.76,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.81,
"early": 1.81,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.24,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 52.24,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 14.6,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.8,
"ev": -0.0625,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2073,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.87,
"edge": 0.0109,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.4925,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2073,
"best_odd": 1.815,
"edge": -0.0109,
"ev": -0.0987,
"implied_prob": 0.5075,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4966
},
"p_final": 0.5034,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0192,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0586,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2073,
"best_odd": 1.87,
"edge": 0.0109,
"ev": -0.0586,
"implied_prob": 0.4925,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5034
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1582,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.8,
"text": "-15.8%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0628,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.3,
"text": "+6.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0628,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10206.52,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Bonaire, but the model still strongly favours Bonaire.",
"consensus_odds": 4.25,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.012,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.2,
"text": "+1.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2154,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.012,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.2,
"text": "+1.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5338,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+53.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Bonaire",
"sort_key": 5209.6,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2332,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"edge": 0.002,
"edge_pp": 0.2,
"market_prob": 0.4733,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2332,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.002,
"ev": -0.0637,
"implied_prob": 0.4733,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4753
},
"p_final": 0.4753,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0505,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0637,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2565,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": -0.0022,
"ev": -0.0716,
"implied_prob": 0.5267,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5245
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.036,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.6,
"text": "-3.6%"
},
"ev_under": -0.0624,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.2,
"text": "-6.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": -0.036,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 1791.0,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 19.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -19.28,
"hero_label": "Granada",
"market_prob_pct": 21.5,
"market_team": "Granada",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Bonaire",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.3,
"summary": "The market has repriced Bonaire, but the model still strongly favours Bonaire."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.3,
"summary": "The market has repriced Bonaire, but the model still strongly favours Bonaire."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0628,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.534,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bonaire at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 21.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bonaire as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Bonaire, but the model still strongly favours Bonaire.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bonaire",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Bonaire \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.81 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +53% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1639979 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.81 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Bonaire, but the model still strongly favours Bonaire.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +53% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Bonaire, but the model still strongly favours Bonaire.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.012,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.2%",
"consensus_odds": 4.25,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2154,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.23529411764705882,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5338,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+53.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "2/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.2222222222222222,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (19 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 15.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.2,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 56,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 19.28,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 19.28,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Bonaire",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Bonaire, but the model still strongly favours Bonaire.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.3,
"summary": "The market has repriced Bonaire, but the model still strongly favours Bonaire."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.3,
"summary": "The market has repriced Bonaire, but the model still strongly favours Bonaire."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0628,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.534,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bonaire at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 21.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bonaire as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Bonaire, but the model still strongly favours Bonaire.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bonaire",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Bonaire \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.81 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +53% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1639979 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.81 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Bonaire, but the model still strongly favours Bonaire.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +53% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Bonaire, but the model still strongly favours Bonaire.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.012,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.2%",
"consensus_odds": 4.25,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2154,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.23529411764705882,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5338,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+53.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Bonaire, but the model still strongly favours Bonaire.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bonaire 1.32 xG vs Granada 1.28 \u2192 Bonaire 36.1%",
"Market: Granada ~21.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Bonaire +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Bonaire, but market pricing diverges by 19 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 14.57,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Bonaire",
"market_prob": 21.54,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.71,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -19.28,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Granada",
"market_prob": 53.52,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.82,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.38,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.82,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.62,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.39,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.11,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.39,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.89,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -19.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Granada",
"market_prob_pct": 53.52,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Bonaire"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Granada\u0027s win probability at 53.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 19.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 19.28,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Bonaire",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 21.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+14.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 14.6,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+14.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 14.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 56,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has repriced Bonaire, but the model still strongly favours Bonaire. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bonaire 1.32 xG vs Granada 1.28 \u2192 Bonaire 36.1%",
"Market: Granada ~21.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Bonaire +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Bonaire, but market pricing diverges by 19 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -19.28,
"hero_label": "Granada",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Granada than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Granada than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Granada than the current fair estimate."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Granada more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Granada (pricing gap 19.3 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 19.28,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Granada",
"largest_gap_pp": -19.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Granada higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 19.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 14.57,
"edge_pp": 14.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Bonaire",
"market_prob_pct": 21.54,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.71,
"edge_pp": 4.71,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.94,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -19.28,
"edge_pp": -19.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Granada",
"market_prob_pct": 53.52,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Granada than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Granada (21.5%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Bonaire, Market \u2192 Granada, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 58.48,
"closing_odds": 1.71,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 58.48,
"entry_odds": 1.71,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/9",
"current_odds": 4.2,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 4.2,
"pick_team": "Bonaire",
"steam_score": 1,
"steam_team_name": "Bonaire",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 19.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "grenada",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Granada",
"away_team_id": 5533,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5533.webp",
"away_team_name": "Granada",
"away_team_public_id": "1ViO76vwDF68AH",
"away_team_slug": "grenada",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1639979,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Bonaire",
"home_team_display_name": "Bonaire",
"home_team_id": 10982,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10982.webp",
"home_team_name": "Bonaire",
"home_team_public_id": "4jnLAVFc5WL6P7",
"home_team_slug": "bonaire",
"ht.home_team_slug": "bonaire",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "CONCACAF Nations League",
"league_id": 536,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/536.webp",
"league_name": "CONCACAF Nations League",
"league_public_id": "3VxzyWtiGZmmhf",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 00:00:00",
"public_id": "15YRbDdhk3WzQ0",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Port of Spain",
"venue_name": "Hasely Crawford Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4264,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0822,
"ev": -0.2254,
"implied_prob": 0.5352,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5352,
"draw": 0.2494,
"home": 0.2154
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.453
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2787,
"best_odd": 3.67,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0132,
"ev": -0.0364,
"implied_prob": 0.2494,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5352,
"draw": 0.2494,
"home": 0.2154
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2626
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1563,
"best_odd": 4.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0228,
"ev": 0.012,
"implied_prob": 0.2154,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5352,
"draw": 0.2494,
"home": 0.2154
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.2381
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.2424,
"ev": -0.4145,
"implied_prob": 0.5848,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.67,
"edge": 0.0242,
"ev": 0.0888,
"implied_prob": 0.2725,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.25,
"edge": 0.1256,
"ev": 0.534,
"implied_prob": 0.2353,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2073,
"alpha_yes": 0.2073,
"best_no_odd": 1.85,
"best_yes_odd": 1.95,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0539,
"edge_yes": 0.0539,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1582,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0987,
"ev_yes": 0.0628,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0586,
"implied_no": 0.5089,
"implied_yes": 0.4911,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2073,
"best_odd": 1.815,
"edge": -0.0109,
"ev": -0.0987,
"implied_prob": 0.5075,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4966
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2073,
"best_odd": 1.87,
"edge": 0.0109,
"ev": -0.0586,
"implied_prob": 0.4925,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5034
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4966,
"p_final_yes": 0.5034,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2332,
"alpha_under": 0.2565,
"best_over_odd": 2.0,
"best_under_odd": 1.81,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.97,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.77,
"edge_over": 0.0082,
"edge_under": -0.0082,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.036,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0637,
"ev_under": -0.0624,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0716,
"implied_over": 0.4738,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4733,
"implied_under": 0.5262,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5267,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2332,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.002,
"ev": -0.0637,
"implied_prob": 0.4733,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4753
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2565,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": -0.0022,
"ev": -0.0716,
"implied_prob": 0.5267,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5245
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4753,
"p_final_under": 0.5245,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0628,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.534,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0628,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.3,
"summary": "The market has repriced Bonaire, but the model still strongly favours Bonaire."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0628,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.534,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bonaire at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 21.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bonaire as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Bonaire, but the model still strongly favours Bonaire.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bonaire",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Bonaire \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.81 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +53% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1639979 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.81 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Bonaire, but the model still strongly favours Bonaire.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +53% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Bonaire, but the model still strongly favours Bonaire.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.012,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.2%",
"consensus_odds": 4.25,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2154,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.23529411764705882,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5338,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+53.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.25,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0228,
"ev": 0.012,
"implied_prob": 0.2154,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Bonaire"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2073,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.87,
"edge": 0.0109,
"market_prob": 0.4925,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2073,
"best_odd": 1.815,
"edge": -0.0109,
"ev": -0.0987,
"implied_prob": 0.5075,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4966
},
"p_final": 0.5034,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0586,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2073,
"best_odd": 1.87,
"edge": 0.0109,
"ev": -0.0586,
"implied_prob": 0.4925,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5034
}
},
"edge": 0.0539,
"ev": 0.0628,
"implied_prob": 0.4911,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2332,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"edge": 0.002,
"market_prob": 0.4733,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2332,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.002,
"ev": -0.0637,
"implied_prob": 0.4733,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4753
},
"p_final": 0.4753,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0637,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2565,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": -0.0022,
"ev": -0.0716,
"implied_prob": 0.5267,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5245
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0082,
"ev": -0.036,
"implied_prob": 0.4738,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1639979,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0628,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Granada",
"home": "Bonaire"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.034226,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0628,
"implied_prob": 0.4911,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.012,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.2%",
"consensus_odds": 4.25,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2154,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.23529411764705882,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5338,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+53.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1639979,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-02T23:59:39.488631+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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