Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Granada Cuba ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.06
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Cuba win · Granada 0–3 Cuba
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "abbdea9f49dd5ad7be712d88ba78565a722aa497d6407153e717ab276e0b5c6f",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.3,
"away_win_prob": 0.3517,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.84,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.84,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.3,
"home_win_prob": 0.3517,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Cuba",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "Cuba"
},
"away_xg": 1.3,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Granada",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0523,
"edge_gap": 0.0,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2995,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 35.2,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 35.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.06
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.06,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Granada Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 3.34,
"market_odds": 3.06,
"model_odds": 2.84,
"overround": 9.1,
"prob_edge": 2.5,
"value_pct": 7.7,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 72.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 72.7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.3,
"home_expected": 1.3,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Granada or Draw",
"prob": 64.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Granada or Cuba",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Cuba",
"prob": 64.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Granada or Cuba",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 35.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 35.2,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Granada"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 7.7,
"implied_prob": 32.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Granada Win",
"model_prob": 35.2,
"odds": 3.06
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Cuba",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 39.5,
"draw": 30.55,
"home": 29.95
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-25 20:59:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-25 20:29:02",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Granada",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.95,
"gap_pp": 5.23,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 35.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.55,
"gap_pp": -0.9,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.5,
"gap_pp": -4.32,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 35.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.71,
"gap_pp": 5.49,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 57.29,
"gap_pp": -5.49,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.06,
"early": 3.06,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.95,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.95,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.0,
"early": 3.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.55,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.55,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.32,
"early": 2.32,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.5,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 39.5,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.2,
"early": 2.2,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.71,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 42.71,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.64,
"early": 1.64,
"implied_closing_pct": 57.29,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 57.29,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.8,
"ev": -0.181,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.3,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2071,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"edge": 0.011,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.4289,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2071,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.011,
"ev": -0.0453,
"implied_prob": 0.4289,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4399
},
"p_final": 0.4399,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0459,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0453,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2278,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0121,
"ev": -0.0889,
"implied_prob": 0.5711,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.559
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0604,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.0,
"text": "+6.0%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1453,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.5,
"text": "-14.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0604,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10204.36,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2084,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.86,
"edge": 0.0102,
"edge_pp": 1.0,
"market_prob": 0.4959,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2084,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.0963,
"implied_prob": 0.5041,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4938
},
"p_final": 0.5062,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0137,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0585,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2084,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0585,
"implied_prob": 0.4959,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5062
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1628,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.3,
"text": "-16.3%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.041,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.1,
"text": "+4.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.041,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10036.9,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Granada, but the model still strongly favours Granada.",
"consensus_odds": 3.06,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0393,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.9,
"text": "-3.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2995,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0393,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.9,
"text": "-3.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0765,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Granada",
"sort_key": 1790.175,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"alert_team": "Granada",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.22,
"hero_label": "Granada",
"market_prob_pct": 29.9,
"market_team": "Cuba",
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"model_team": "Granada",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 74,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Granada, but the model still strongly favours Granada."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Granada, but the model still strongly favours Granada."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0764,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Granada at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Granada as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Granada, but the model still strongly favours Granada.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Granada",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Granada, but the model still strongly favours Granada.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Granada, but the model still strongly favours Granada.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0393,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.06,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2995,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32679738562091504,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0765,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.875,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.22,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.22,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"steam_team": "Granada",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Granada, but the model still strongly favours Granada.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Granada, but the model still strongly favours Granada."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Granada, but the model still strongly favours Granada."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0764,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Granada at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Granada as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Granada, but the model still strongly favours Granada.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Granada",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Granada, but the model still strongly favours Granada.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Granada, but the model still strongly favours Granada.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0393,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.06,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2995,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32679738562091504,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0765,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Granada, but the model still strongly favours Granada.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Granada 1.30 xG vs Cuba 1.30 \u2192 Granada 35.2%",
"Market: Cuba ~29.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Granada odds \u2191 +20.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Granada, but the market has moved away from Granada.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.22,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Granada",
"market_prob": 29.95,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.9,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.55,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.33,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Cuba",
"market_prob": 39.5,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.12,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.08,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.12,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.92,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.95,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.55,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.95,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.45,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Granada",
"market_prob_pct": 29.95,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Granada"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Granada\u0027s win probability at 35.2%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 29.9%, a difference of 5.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.22,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Granada",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 29.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+5.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 5.3,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+5.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Granada, but the model still strongly favours Granada. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Granada 1.30 xG vs Cuba 1.30 \u2192 Granada 35.2%",
"Market: Cuba ~29.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Granada odds \u2191 +20.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Granada, but the market has moved away from Granada.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.22,
"hero_label": "Granada",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Granada odds lengthened \u2191 +20.0%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Granada.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Granada.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Granada.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Granada."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Granada.",
"Recent line movement on Granada (\u2191 +20.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/8) supports the current market view on Granada."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.22,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Granada",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.2,
"lead": "The model rates Granada considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.2,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 5.22,
"edge_pp": 5.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Granada",
"market_prob_pct": 29.95,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.9,
"edge_pp": -0.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.55,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.33,
"edge_pp": -4.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Cuba",
"market_prob_pct": 39.5,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Granada.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Cuba (29.9%).",
"However, Granada has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +20.0%, 7/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Granada, Market \u2192 Cuba, while Granada odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 32.68,
"closing_odds": 3.06,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 32.68,
"entry_odds": 3.06,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.0
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 20.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 49h 48m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"7/8 books lengthened Granada together (20.0% drift, score 74) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.06",
"2.73",
"2.40"
],
"display": "3.06 \u2192 2.40 \u2192 2.88",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 49h 48m",
"pick_team": "Granada",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.06"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.88"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.4,
3.06,
2.88
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,4.9",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.06"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.88"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.4,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Granada odds \u2191 +20.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Granada",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Granada odds \u2191 +20.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.88,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"open_odds": 2.4,
"summary": "Market moved away from Granada while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Granada",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 74,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"open_odds": 2.4,
"pick_team": "Granada",
"steam_score": 74,
"steam_team_name": "Granada",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "cuba",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Cuba",
"away_team_id": 2388,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2388.webp",
"away_team_name": "Cuba",
"away_team_public_id": "1ULC20gCSQylF4",
"away_team_slug": "cuba",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1639939,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Granada",
"home_team_display_name": "Granada",
"home_team_id": 5533,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/5533.webp",
"home_team_name": "Granada",
"home_team_public_id": "1ViO76vwDF68AH",
"home_team_slug": "grenada",
"ht.home_team_slug": "grenada",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "CONCACAF Nations League",
"league_id": 536,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/536.webp",
"league_name": "CONCACAF Nations League",
"league_public_id": "3VxzyWtiGZmmhf",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-09-25 21:00:00",
"public_id": "0z5AClOBBFwFqe",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4208,
"best_odd": 2.32,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0182,
"ev": -0.1258,
"implied_prob": 0.395,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.395,
"draw": 0.3055,
"home": 0.2995
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3768
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2959,
"best_odd": 3.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0027,
"ev": -0.0916,
"implied_prob": 0.3055,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.395,
"draw": 0.3055,
"home": 0.2995
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3028
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2765,
"best_odd": 3.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0145,
"ev": -0.0393,
"implied_prob": 0.2995,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.395,
"draw": 0.3055,
"home": 0.2995
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3139
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.32,
"edge": -0.0793,
"ev": -0.1839,
"implied_prob": 0.431,
"model_prob": 0.3518
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.0,
"edge": -0.0369,
"ev": -0.1106,
"implied_prob": 0.3333,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.06,
"edge": 0.025,
"ev": 0.0764,
"implied_prob": 0.3268,
"model_prob": 0.3518
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2084,
"alpha_yes": 0.2084,
"best_no_odd": 1.84,
"best_yes_odd": 1.91,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0495,
"edge_yes": 0.0495,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1628,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0963,
"ev_yes": 0.041,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0585,
"implied_no": 0.5045,
"implied_yes": 0.4955,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2084,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.0963,
"implied_prob": 0.5041,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4938
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2084,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0585,
"implied_prob": 0.4959,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5062
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4938,
"p_final_yes": 0.5062,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2071,
"alpha_under": 0.2278,
"best_over_odd": 2.2,
"best_under_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.17,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.63,
"edge_over": 0.0512,
"edge_under": -0.0512,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0604,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0453,
"ev_under": -0.1453,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0889,
"implied_over": 0.4308,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4289,
"implied_under": 0.5692,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5711,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2071,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.011,
"ev": -0.0453,
"implied_prob": 0.4289,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4399
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2278,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0121,
"ev": -0.0889,
"implied_prob": 0.5711,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.559
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4399,
"p_final_under": 0.559,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0764,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Granada, but the model still strongly favours Granada."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0764,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Granada at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Granada as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Granada, but the model still strongly favours Granada.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Granada",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Granada, but the model still strongly favours Granada.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Granada, but the model still strongly favours Granada.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0393,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.06,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2995,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32679738562091504,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0765,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.06,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0145,
"ev": -0.0393,
"implied_prob": 0.2995,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Granada"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2084,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.86,
"edge": 0.0102,
"market_prob": 0.4959,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2084,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.0963,
"implied_prob": 0.5041,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4938
},
"p_final": 0.5062,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0585,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2084,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0585,
"implied_prob": 0.4959,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5062
}
},
"edge": 0.0495,
"ev": 0.041,
"implied_prob": 0.4955,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2071,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"edge": 0.011,
"market_prob": 0.4289,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2071,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.011,
"ev": -0.0453,
"implied_prob": 0.4289,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4399
},
"p_final": 0.4399,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0453,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2278,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0121,
"ev": -0.0889,
"implied_prob": 0.5711,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.559
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0512,
"ev": 0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.4308,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1639939,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0604,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3518,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Cuba",
"home": "Granada"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.020379,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.4308,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0393,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.06,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2995,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32679738562091504,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0765,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1639939,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-25T20:59:06.874261+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Granada & Cuba!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Mundo. CONCACAF Nations League Predicciones
