Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Miramar Misiones Miramar Misiones ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.49
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Miramar Misiones win · Miramar Misiones 1–0 Uruguay Montevideo
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "47473104c05cf8faba6e8d664bd36620c24c728230c7386a0cd2844a64298cfb",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.16,
"away_win_prob": 0.2881,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.46,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.54,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2931,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.47,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.41,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.39,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.44,
"home_win_prob": 0.4188,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Miramar Misiones or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Miramar Misiones"
},
"away_xg": 1.16,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Miramar Misiones",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0509,
"edge_gap": 0.1252,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3676,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 28.8,
"draw": 29.3,
"home": 41.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.49
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.49,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Miramar Misiones Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.72,
"market_odds": 2.49,
"model_odds": 2.39,
"overround": 9.3,
"prob_edge": 1.7,
"value_pct": 4.2,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 5,
"away_failed_to_score": 7,
"away_played": 24,
"away_score_rate": 68.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 10,
"home_played": 24,
"home_score_rate": 76.3,
"no_prob": 46.0,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.0
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.16,
"home_expected": 1.44,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Miramar Misiones or Draw",
"prob": 71.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Miramar Misiones or Uruguay Montevideo",
"prob": 70.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Uruguay Montevideo",
"prob": 58.1
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Miramar Misiones or Draw",
"pick_prob": 71.2
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 28.8,
"draw_pct": 29.3,
"home_pct": 41.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Miramar Misiones"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 4.3,
"implied_prob": 40.2,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Miramar Misiones Win",
"model_prob": 41.9,
"odds": 2.49
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Uruguay Montevideo",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 32.11,
"draw": 31.13,
"home": 36.76
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 16:01:37",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 15:35:28",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Miramar Misiones",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.76,
"gap_pp": 5.09,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 41.85
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.13,
"gap_pp": -1.8,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.33
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.11,
"gap_pp": -3.29,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 28.82
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.24,
"gap_pp": 6.96,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 58.76,
"gap_pp": -6.96,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.49,
"early": 2.49,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.76,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.76,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.94,
"early": 2.94,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.13,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.13,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.85,
"early": 2.85,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.11,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.11,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.28,
"early": 2.28,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.24,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.24,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.6,
"early": 1.6,
"implied_closing_pct": 58.76,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 58.76,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.0,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -3.0,
"ev": -0.194,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.124,
"model_prob_pct": 12.4,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.7
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.44,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2047,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0123,
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"market_prob": 0.4218,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2047,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0123,
"ev": -0.0537,
"implied_prob": 0.4218,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4341
},
"p_final": 0.4341,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0508,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0537,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2251,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0136,
"ev": -0.1022,
"implied_prob": 0.5782,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5647
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.099,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.9,
"text": "+9.9%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1453,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.5,
"text": "-14.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.099,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10239.1,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2092,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0098,
"edge_pp": 1.0,
"market_prob": 0.4932,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.54,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2092,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0098,
"ev": -0.1053,
"implied_prob": 0.5068,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"p_final": 0.497
},
"p_final": 0.503,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.001,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0695,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2092,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.0695,
"implied_prob": 0.4932,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"p_final": 0.503
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.149,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.9,
"text": "-14.9%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.026,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.6,
"text": "+2.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.026,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 46.0,
"sort_key": 5220.8,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.0
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0321,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.2,
"text": "-3.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3676,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0321,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.2,
"text": "-3.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0421,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.2%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Miramar Misiones",
"sort_key": 1791.975,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.12,
"hero_label": "Miramar Misiones",
"market_prob_pct": 36.8,
"market_team": "Miramar Misiones",
"model_prob_pct": 41.9,
"model_team": "Miramar Misiones",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 11,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Miramar Misiones)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Miramar Misiones)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.099,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.099,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 81,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Miramar Misiones at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Miramar Misiones as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Miramar Misiones",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Miramar Misiones).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0321,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3676,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4016064257028112,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0421,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "1/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.125,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.2,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.12,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.12,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.16,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.44,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.44,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.44 \u00b7 Away xG 1.16 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +7%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Miramar Misiones).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Miramar Misiones)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Miramar Misiones)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.099,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.099,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 81,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Miramar Misiones at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Miramar Misiones as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Miramar Misiones",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Miramar Misiones).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0321,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3676,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4016064257028112,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0421,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Miramar Misiones 1.44 xG vs Uruguay Montevideo 1.16 \u2192 Miramar Misiones 41.9%",
"Market: Miramar Misiones ~36.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +3.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Miramar Misiones with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.12,
"fair_prob": 41.88,
"label": "Miramar Misiones",
"market_prob": 36.76,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.82,
"fair_prob": 29.31,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.13,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.3,
"fair_prob": 28.81,
"label": "Uruguay Montevideo",
"market_prob": 32.11,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.96,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.24,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.96,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.76,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.61,
"fair_prob": 54.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.39,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.61,
"fair_prob": 46.0,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.61,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.88,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Miramar Misiones",
"market_prob_pct": 36.76,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Miramar Misiones\u0027s win probability at 41.9%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 36.8%, a difference of 5.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.12,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Miramar Misiones",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 36.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+5.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 5.1,
"model_prob_pct": 41.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+5.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Miramar Misiones \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Miramar Misiones 1.44 xG vs Uruguay Montevideo 1.16 \u2192 Miramar Misiones 41.9%",
"Market: Miramar Misiones ~36.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +3.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Miramar Misiones with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.12,
"hero_label": "Miramar Misiones",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +3.3%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.3%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Miramar Misiones.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Miramar Misiones.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.3%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Miramar Misiones.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.12,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.6 pp (at 41.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 12.6,
"max_prob_pct": 41.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Miramar Misiones",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.1,
"lead": "The model rates Miramar Misiones considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 5.12,
"edge_pp": 5.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.88,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Miramar Misiones",
"market_prob_pct": 36.76,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.82,
"edge_pp": -1.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.13,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.3,
"edge_pp": -3.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.81,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Uruguay Montevideo",
"market_prob_pct": 32.11,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Miramar Misiones (36.8%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +3.3%, 1/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Miramar Misiones \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 40.16,
"closing_odds": 2.49,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 40.16,
"entry_odds": 2.49,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.3
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "1/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Sharpest sharp-led move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 29h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.10 \u2192 2.75 \u2192 3.10) \u2014 net 3.3% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.10",
"3.02",
"2.94"
],
"display": "3.10 \u2192 2.75 \u2192 3.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 29h 45m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.0,
2.94,
3.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,11.2 28.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.94"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.0,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 11,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/8",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 11,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "uruguay-montevideo",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Uruguay Montevideo",
"away_team_id": 16740,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/16740.webp",
"away_team_name": "Uruguay Montevideo",
"away_team_public_id": "2DEkmd2bnCz9JU",
"away_team_slug": "uruguay-montevideo",
"country_code": "UY",
"country_display_name": "Uruguay",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/uy.svg",
"country_id": 162,
"country_name": "Uruguay",
"fixture_id": 1639302,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Uruguay",
"home_team_display_name": "Miramar Misiones",
"home_team_id": 2373,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2373.webp",
"home_team_name": "Miramar Misiones",
"home_team_public_id": "0NA7tXKA6GA4pb",
"home_team_slug": "miramar",
"ht.home_team_slug": "miramar",
"league_country": "Uruguay",
"league_country_display": "Uruguay",
"league_display_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n (Uruguay)",
"league_id": 269,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/269.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n (Uruguay)",
"league_public_id": "0bBMfWWLSWSuDN",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 16:00:00",
"public_id": "5rAQwuVJ2bz6Hn",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Montevideo",
"venue_name": "Parque Palermo"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4278,
"best_odd": 2.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0141,
"ev": -0.1249,
"implied_prob": 0.3211,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3211,
"draw": 0.3113,
"home": 0.3676
},
"model_prob": 0.2882,
"p_final": 0.3071
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4378,
"best_odd": 2.94,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0079,
"ev": -0.1079,
"implied_prob": 0.3113,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3211,
"draw": 0.3113,
"home": 0.3676
},
"model_prob": 0.2933,
"p_final": 0.3034
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4156,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0212,
"ev": -0.0321,
"implied_prob": 0.3676,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3211,
"draw": 0.3113,
"home": 0.3676
},
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"p_final": 0.3887
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.85,
"edge": -0.0626,
"ev": -0.1786,
"implied_prob": 0.3509,
"model_prob": 0.2882
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.94,
"edge": -0.0468,
"ev": -0.1377,
"implied_prob": 0.3401,
"model_prob": 0.2933
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0169,
"ev": 0.042,
"implied_prob": 0.4016,
"model_prob": 0.4185
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2092,
"alpha_yes": 0.2092,
"best_no_odd": 1.85,
"best_yes_odd": 1.9,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0461,
"edge_yes": 0.0461,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.149,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1053,
"ev_yes": 0.026,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0695,
"implied_no": 0.5061,
"implied_yes": 0.4939,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2092,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0098,
"ev": -0.1053,
"implied_prob": 0.5068,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"p_final": 0.497
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2092,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.0695,
"implied_prob": 0.4932,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"p_final": 0.503
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.497,
"p_final_yes": 0.503,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2047,
"alpha_under": 0.2251,
"best_over_odd": 2.28,
"best_under_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.18,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.59,
"edge_over": 0.0596,
"edge_under": -0.0596,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.099,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0537,
"ev_under": -0.1453,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1022,
"implied_over": 0.4224,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4218,
"implied_under": 0.5776,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5782,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2047,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0123,
"ev": -0.0537,
"implied_prob": 0.4218,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4341
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2251,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0136,
"ev": -0.1022,
"implied_prob": 0.5782,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5647
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4341,
"p_final_under": 0.5647,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.099,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.099,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.099,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.1
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Miramar Misiones)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.099,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.099,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 81,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Miramar Misiones at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Miramar Misiones as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Miramar Misiones",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Miramar Misiones).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0321,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3676,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4016064257028112,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0421,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.54,
"draw_prob": 0.2933,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4185,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.28
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0212,
"ev": -0.0321,
"implied_prob": 0.3676,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Miramar Misiones"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2092,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0098,
"market_prob": 0.4932,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.54,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2092,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0098,
"ev": -0.1053,
"implied_prob": 0.5068,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"p_final": 0.497
},
"p_final": 0.503,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0695,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2092,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.0695,
"implied_prob": 0.4932,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"p_final": 0.503
}
},
"edge": 0.0461,
"ev": 0.026,
"implied_prob": 0.4939,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2047,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0123,
"market_prob": 0.4218,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2047,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0123,
"ev": -0.0537,
"implied_prob": 0.4218,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4341
},
"p_final": 0.4341,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0537,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2251,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0136,
"ev": -0.1022,
"implied_prob": 0.5782,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5647
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0596,
"ev": 0.099,
"implied_prob": 0.4224,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1639302,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.099,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2882,
"draw": 0.2933,
"home": 0.4185
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Uruguay Montevideo",
"home": "Miramar Misiones"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.033403,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.099,
"implied_prob": 0.4224,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0321,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3676,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4016064257028112,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0421,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1639302,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T16:01:39.480938+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Miramar Misiones & Uruguay Montevideo!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Segunda División (Uruguay) — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oriental | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 2 | Plaza Colonia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 3 | Fénix | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 4 | Sportivo Huracán | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | Colón | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Uruguay Montevideo | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Rentistas | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Cerrito | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | La Luz | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Miramar Misiones | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 11 | Paysandú | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 12 | Atenas | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 | CA River Plate | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 14 | Tacuarembó | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fénix | 6 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 11 |
| 2 | Plaza Colonia | 6 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 12 |
| 3 | Sportivo Huracán | 6 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 | Oriental | 6 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Colón | 6 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 9 |
| 6 | Cerrito | 6 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 | Uruguay Montevideo | 6 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 9 |
| 8 | Rentistas | 6 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 9 |
| 9 | CA River Plate | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
| 10 | La Luz | 6 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | Tacuarembó | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 3 |
| 12 | Atenas | 6 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 |
| 13 | Paysandú | 6 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Miramar Misiones | 6 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 5 |
