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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Atlético Juniors Wilstermann Cooperativa ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.73
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Wilstermann Cooperativa win · Atlético Juniors 0–3 Wilstermann Cooperativa
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "f3e4d8a90dc72b29e60535b2ba6d8694c6a0acece359a73cd5f81d1feffafcfc",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3239,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.09,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.63,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.36,
"home_win_prob": 0.3801,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : Wilstermann Cooperativa and +2.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Wilstermann Cooperativa"
},
"away_xg": 1.24,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Juniors",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1154,
"edge_gap": 0.0566,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2649,
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 3.4
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
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"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
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"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 3.77,
"market_odds": 3.4,
"model_odds": 2.63,
"overround": 11.0,
"prob_edge": 8.6,
"value_pct": 29.3,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 71.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 3,
"home_score_rate": 74.3,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.24,
"home_expected": 1.36,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
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{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Atl\u00e9tico Juniors or Draw",
"prob": 67.6
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Atl\u00e9tico Juniors or Wilstermann Cooperativa",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Wilstermann Cooperativa",
"prob": 62.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Juniors or Wilstermann Cooperativa",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 32.4,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 38.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Juniors"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+2.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.7,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"edge": 29.3,
"implied_prob": 29.4,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Atl\u00e9tico Juniors Win",
"model_prob": 38.0,
"odds": 3.4
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Wilstermann Cooperativa",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 52.06,
"draw": 21.45,
"home": 26.49
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 19:01:51",
"early_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 18:32:57",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Atl\u00e9tico Juniors",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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"gap_pp": 11.54,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 21.45,
"gap_pp": 8.15,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.06,
"gap_pp": -19.69,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 32.37
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 68.81,
"gap_pp": -20.61,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.19,
"gap_pp": 20.61,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.4,
"early": 3.4,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.49,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.49,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.2,
"early": 4.2,
"implied_closing_pct": 21.45,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 21.45,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.73,
"early": 1.73,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.06,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 52.06,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.36,
"early": 1.36,
"implied_closing_pct": 68.81,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 68.81,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 3.0,
"early": 3.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.19,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.19,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 20.6,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 2.5,
"ev": 0.25,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 10.0,
"market_prob": 0.1,
"market_prob_pct": 10.0,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.36,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1238,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.92,
"edge": 0.0258,
"edge_pp": 2.6,
"market_prob": 0.3097,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1702,
"best_odd": 1.31,
"edge": -0.0354,
"ev": -0.1421,
"implied_prob": 0.6903,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6549
},
"p_final": 0.3355,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5126,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0204,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1238,
"best_odd": 2.92,
"edge": 0.0258,
"ev": -0.0204,
"implied_prob": 0.3097,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3355
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3445,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -34.4,
"text": "-34.4%"
},
"ev_under": 0.554,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 55.4,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.554,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10648.6,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1009,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.825,
"edge": 0.0134,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"market_prob": 0.3234,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1009,
"best_odd": 2.825,
"edge": 0.0134,
"ev": -0.0487,
"implied_prob": 0.3234,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3367
},
"p_final": 0.3367,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2882,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0487,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1388,
"best_odd": 1.35,
"edge": -0.0184,
"ev": -0.1114,
"implied_prob": 0.6766,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6582
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3042,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 30.4,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2656,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -26.6,
"text": "-26.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.3042,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10273.78,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Atl\u00e9tico Juniors, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Juniors.",
"consensus_odds": 3.4,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0019,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.2,
"text": "-0.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2649,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0019,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.2,
"text": "-0.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.293,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+29.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Juniors",
"sort_key": 2199.848,
"tier": "pass"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 19.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -19.67,
"hero_label": "Wilstermann Cooperativa",
"market_prob_pct": 26.5,
"market_team": "Wilstermann Cooperativa",
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_team": "Atl\u00e9tico Juniors",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.7,
"summary": "The market has repriced Atl\u00e9tico Juniors, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Juniors."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.7,
"summary": "The market has repriced Atl\u00e9tico Juniors, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Juniors."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.554,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.554,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Atl\u00e9tico Juniors at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Atl\u00e9tico Juniors as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Atl\u00e9tico Juniors, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Juniors.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atl\u00e9tico Juniors",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +55.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +55.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +55.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+55.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Atl\u00e9tico Juniors, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Juniors.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Atl\u00e9tico Juniors, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Juniors.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0019,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.4,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2649,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29411764705882354,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.293,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+29.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "4/4",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (20 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 15.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 61,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 19.67,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 19.67,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.24,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.36,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.36 \u00b7 Away xG 1.24 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Atl\u00e9tico Juniors",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Atl\u00e9tico Juniors, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Juniors.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.7,
"summary": "The market has repriced Atl\u00e9tico Juniors, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Juniors."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.7,
"summary": "The market has repriced Atl\u00e9tico Juniors, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Juniors."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.554,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.554,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Atl\u00e9tico Juniors at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Atl\u00e9tico Juniors as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Atl\u00e9tico Juniors, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Juniors.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atl\u00e9tico Juniors",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +55.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +55.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +55.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+55.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Atl\u00e9tico Juniors, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Juniors.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Atl\u00e9tico Juniors, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Juniors.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0019,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.4,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2649,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29411764705882354,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.293,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+29.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Atl\u00e9tico Juniors, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Juniors.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Atl\u00e9tico Juniors 1.36 xG vs Wilstermann Cooperativa 1.24 \u2192 Atl\u00e9tico Juniors 38.0%",
"Market: Wilstermann Cooperativa ~26.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Atl\u00e9tico Juniors +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Atl\u00e9tico Juniors, but market pricing diverges by 20 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 11.52,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Atl\u00e9tico Juniors",
"market_prob": 26.49,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.14,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 21.45,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -19.67,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Wilstermann Cooperativa",
"market_prob": 52.06,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -20.75,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 68.95,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 20.75,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 31.05,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.26,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 67.66,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.26,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 32.34,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -19.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Wilstermann Cooperativa",
"market_prob_pct": 52.06,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Juniors"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Wilstermann Cooperativa\u0027s win probability at 52.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 19.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 19.67,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Juniors",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 26.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+11.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 11.5,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+11.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 11.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 61,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has repriced Atl\u00e9tico Juniors, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Juniors. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Atl\u00e9tico Juniors 1.36 xG vs Wilstermann Cooperativa 1.24 \u2192 Atl\u00e9tico Juniors 38.0%",
"Market: Wilstermann Cooperativa ~26.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Atl\u00e9tico Juniors +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Atl\u00e9tico Juniors, but market pricing diverges by 20 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -19.67,
"hero_label": "Wilstermann Cooperativa",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Wilstermann Cooperativa is the dominant side.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Wilstermann Cooperativa than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Wilstermann Cooperativa than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Wilstermann Cooperativa than the current fair estimate.",
"Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Wilstermann Cooperativa is the dominant side."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Wilstermann Cooperativa more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Wilstermann Cooperativa (pricing gap 19.7 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 19.67,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Wilstermann Cooperativa",
"largest_gap_pp": -19.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices Wilstermann Cooperativa higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 19.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 11.52,
"edge_pp": 11.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Atl\u00e9tico Juniors",
"market_prob_pct": 26.49,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.14,
"edge_pp": 8.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 21.45,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -19.67,
"edge_pp": -19.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Wilstermann Cooperativa",
"market_prob_pct": 52.06,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Wilstermann Cooperativa than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Wilstermann Cooperativa (26.5%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Atl\u00e9tico Juniors, Market \u2192 Wilstermann Cooperativa, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 57.8,
"closing_odds": 1.73,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 57.8,
"entry_odds": 1.73,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/4",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"pick_team": "Atl\u00e9tico Juniors",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_team_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Juniors",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 19.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "wilstermann-cooperativa",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Wilstermann Cooperativa",
"away_team_id": 17763,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/17763.webp",
"away_team_name": "Wilstermann Cooperativa",
"away_team_public_id": "5U2kxe3biU06bj",
"away_team_slug": "wilstermann-cooperativa",
"country_code": "BO",
"country_display_name": "Bolivia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/bo.svg",
"country_id": 21,
"country_name": "Bolivia",
"fixture_id": 1639079,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": null,
"home_team_display_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Juniors",
"home_team_id": 28289,
"home_team_logo": null,
"home_team_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Juniors",
"home_team_public_id": "5TcOYfGJrojOBM",
"home_team_slug": null,
"ht.home_team_slug": null,
"league_country": "Bolivia",
"league_country_display": "Bolivia",
"league_display_name": "Nacional B de Bolivia",
"league_id": 710,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/710.webp",
"league_name": "Nacional B de Bolivia",
"league_public_id": "1Xm2OzgPQHSaoz",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 19:00:00",
"public_id": "4uBvMLezt8d36p",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4228,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0833,
"ev": -0.2433,
"implied_prob": 0.5206,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5206,
"draw": 0.2145,
"home": 0.2649
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.4374
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1756,
"best_odd": 4.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0143,
"ev": -0.0392,
"implied_prob": 0.2145,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5206,
"draw": 0.2145,
"home": 0.2649
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2288
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2481,
"best_odd": 3.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0286,
"ev": -0.0019,
"implied_prob": 0.2649,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5206,
"draw": 0.2145,
"home": 0.2649
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.2935
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.2543,
"ev": -0.44,
"implied_prob": 0.578,
"model_prob": 0.3237
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.2,
"edge": 0.0578,
"ev": 0.243,
"implied_prob": 0.2381,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.4,
"edge": 0.0862,
"ev": 0.2931,
"implied_prob": 0.2941,
"model_prob": 0.3803
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1009,
"alpha_yes": 0.1388,
"best_no_odd": 2.86,
"best_yes_odd": 1.35,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1326,
"edge_yes": -0.1326,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3042,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0487,
"ev_yes": -0.2656,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1114,
"implied_no": 0.3234,
"implied_yes": 0.6766,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1009,
"best_odd": 2.825,
"edge": 0.0134,
"ev": -0.0487,
"implied_prob": 0.3234,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3367
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1388,
"best_odd": 1.35,
"edge": -0.0184,
"ev": -0.1114,
"implied_prob": 0.6766,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6582
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.3367,
"p_final_yes": 0.6582,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1702,
"alpha_under": 0.1238,
"best_over_odd": 1.36,
"best_under_odd": 3.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.31,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.92,
"edge_over": -0.2075,
"edge_under": 0.2075,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3445,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1421,
"ev_under": 0.554,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0204,
"implied_over": 0.6895,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6903,
"implied_under": 0.3105,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3097,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1702,
"best_odd": 1.31,
"edge": -0.0354,
"ev": -0.1421,
"implied_prob": 0.6903,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6549
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1238,
"best_odd": 2.92,
"edge": 0.0258,
"ev": -0.0204,
"implied_prob": 0.3097,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3355
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6549,
"p_final_under": 0.3355,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.554,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.554,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.554,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.7,
"summary": "The market has repriced Atl\u00e9tico Juniors, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Juniors."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.554,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.554,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Atl\u00e9tico Juniors at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Atl\u00e9tico Juniors as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Atl\u00e9tico Juniors, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Juniors.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atl\u00e9tico Juniors",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +55.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +55.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +55.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+55.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Atl\u00e9tico Juniors, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Juniors.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Atl\u00e9tico Juniors, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Juniors.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0019,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.4,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2649,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29411764705882354,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.293,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+29.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.4,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0286,
"ev": -0.0019,
"implied_prob": 0.2649,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Juniors"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1009,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.825,
"edge": 0.0134,
"market_prob": 0.3234,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1009,
"best_odd": 2.825,
"edge": 0.0134,
"ev": -0.0487,
"implied_prob": 0.3234,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3367
},
"p_final": 0.3367,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0487,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1388,
"best_odd": 1.35,
"edge": -0.0184,
"ev": -0.1114,
"implied_prob": 0.6766,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6582
}
},
"edge": 0.1326,
"ev": 0.3042,
"implied_prob": 0.3234,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1238,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.92,
"edge": 0.0258,
"market_prob": 0.3097,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1702,
"best_odd": 1.31,
"edge": -0.0354,
"ev": -0.1421,
"implied_prob": 0.6903,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6549
},
"p_final": 0.3355,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0204,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1238,
"best_odd": 2.92,
"edge": 0.0258,
"ev": -0.0204,
"implied_prob": 0.3097,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3355
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2075,
"ev": 0.554,
"implied_prob": 0.3105,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1639079,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.554,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3237,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3803
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3042,
"implied_prob": 0.3234,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3042,
"implied_prob": 0.3234,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Wilstermann Cooperativa",
"home": "Atl\u00e9tico Juniors"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.20088,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.554,
"implied_prob": 0.3105,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0019,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.4,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2649,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29411764705882354,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.293,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+29.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1639079,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T19:01:52.917311+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Nacional B de Bolivia — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EM Huanuni | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 1 | 26 de Febrero | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 1 | Wilstermann Cooperativa | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 1 | Independiente CBBA | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 1 | Virginia | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 1 | CD IN San Juan FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 1 | Primero de Mayo | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 2 | Atlético Sucre | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 | Deportivo FATIC | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 2 | Hiska Nacional | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Mineros Potosí | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 2 | Municipal Tiquipaya | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 2 | Deportivo Tigres | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 2 | Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 3 | Club Universitario | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 4 | Ingenieros | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | Atlético Juniors | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| 4 | Universitario Beni | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| 4 | Unión Tarija | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | CD Guadalajara | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 4 | Universitario Tarija | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 4 | Libertad | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| 5 | Chaco | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | San Martín de Yacuiba | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mineros Potosí | 6 | 20 | 8 | +12 | 10 |
| 2 | Municipal Tiquipaya | 6 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 11 |
| 3 | Atlético Sucre | 6 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 9 |
| 4 | Wilstermann Cooperativa | 6 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 10 |
| 5 | 26 de Febrero | 6 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 15 |
| 6 | EM Huanuni | 6 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 14 |
| 7 | Deportivo FATIC | 6 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 10 |
| 8 | Chaco | 5 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 6 |
| 9 | Independiente CBBA | 6 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 15 |
| 10 | CD IN San Juan FC | 5 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 11 | Primero de Mayo | 6 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 12 |
| 12 | Virginia | 6 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 14 |
| 13 | Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz | 6 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 11 |
| 14 | Hiska Nacional | 6 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Deportivo Tigres | 5 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 8 |
| 16 | Ingenieros | 5 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 4 |
| 17 | Club Universitario | 6 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 8 |
| 18 | Unión Tarija | 5 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 19 | Universitario Tarija | 6 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 4 |
| 20 | Atlético Juniors | 6 | 5 | 26 | -21 | 0 |
| 21 | CD Guadalajara | 5 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2 |
| 22 | San Martín de Yacuiba | 5 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 6 |
| 23 | Universitario Beni | 5 | 2 | 15 | -13 | 0 |
| 24 | Libertad | 6 | 0 | 22 | -22 | 1 |
