Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 St. Pölten Femenino Malmö FF W ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.93
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Malmö FF W win · St. Pölten Femenino 0–2 Malmö FF W
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "6da82901cc113042e6b2fc91a79174808fcd71b2f40f9d45c3ecc1e43b50c649",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"away_win_prob": 0.3424,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.92,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.77,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"home_win_prob": 0.3611,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "No predictions available",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "33%",
"percent_draw": "33%",
"percent_home": "33%",
"winner_name": null
},
"away_xg": 1.28,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "St. P\u00f6lten Femenino",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0786,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2823,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.2,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 36.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.15
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.15,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "St. P\u00f6lten Femenino Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 3.54,
"market_odds": 3.15,
"model_odds": 2.77,
"overround": 12.5,
"prob_edge": 4.4,
"value_pct": 13.7,
"value_rating": "value_bet"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 73.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.28,
"home_expected": 1.32,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "St. P\u00f6lten Femenino or Draw",
"prob": 65.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "St. P\u00f6lten Femenino or Malm\u00f6 FF W",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Malm\u00f6 FF W",
"prob": 63.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "St. P\u00f6lten Femenino or Malm\u00f6 FF W",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "St. P\u00f6lten Femenino"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 13.7,
"implied_prob": 31.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "St. P\u00f6lten Femenino Win",
"model_prob": 36.1,
"odds": 3.15
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Malm\u00f6 FF W",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 46.07,
"draw": 25.7,
"home": 28.23
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-23 16:44:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-23 16:14:02",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "St. P\u00f6lten Femenino",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.23,
"gap_pp": 7.86,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.7,
"gap_pp": 3.97,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.07,
"gap_pp": -11.83,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.68,
"gap_pp": -8.48,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.32,
"gap_pp": 8.48,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.15,
"early": 3.15,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.23,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.23,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.46,
"early": 3.46,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.7,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.7,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.93,
"early": 1.93,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.07,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.07,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.62,
"early": 1.62,
"implied_closing_pct": 56.68,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 56.68,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.12,
"early": 2.12,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.32,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.32,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.0,
"ev": 0.0,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.194,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0178,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.4263,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2134,
"best_odd": 1.575,
"edge": -0.0196,
"ev": -0.1272,
"implied_prob": 0.5737,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5542
},
"p_final": 0.4441,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0982,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0586,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.194,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.0586,
"implied_prob": 0.4263,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4441
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2095,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.9,
"text": "-20.9%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2328,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 23.3,
"text": "+23.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2328,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10359.52,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1666,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.275,
"edge": 0.0083,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"market_prob": 0.4052,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1666,
"best_odd": 2.275,
"edge": 0.0083,
"ev": -0.0592,
"implied_prob": 0.4052,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4135
},
"p_final": 0.4135,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0351,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0592,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.229,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0114,
"ev": -0.0958,
"implied_prob": 0.5948,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5834
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.092,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.2,
"text": "+9.2%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1443,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.4,
"text": "-14.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.092,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10082.8,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten Femenino, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten Femenino.",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0452,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.5,
"text": "-4.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2823,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0452,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.5,
"text": "-4.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1368,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "St. P\u00f6lten Femenino",
"sort_key": 1788.7,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.83,
"hero_label": "Malm\u00f6 FF W",
"market_prob_pct": 28.2,
"market_team": "Malm\u00f6 FF W",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "St. P\u00f6lten Femenino",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten Femenino, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten Femenino."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten Femenino, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten Femenino."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 23,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates St. P\u00f6lten Femenino at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies St. P\u00f6lten Femenino as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten Femenino, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten Femenino.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "St. P\u00f6lten Femenino",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "23 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten Femenino, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten Femenino.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten Femenino, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten Femenino.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0452,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2823,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31746031746031744,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1368,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/8",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 65,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.83,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.83,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "St. P\u00f6lten Femenino",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten Femenino, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten Femenino.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten Femenino, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten Femenino."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten Femenino, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten Femenino."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 23,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates St. P\u00f6lten Femenino at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies St. P\u00f6lten Femenino as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten Femenino, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten Femenino.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "St. P\u00f6lten Femenino",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "23 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten Femenino, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten Femenino.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten Femenino, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten Femenino.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0452,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2823,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31746031746031744,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1368,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten Femenino, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten Femenino.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: St. P\u00f6lten Femenino 1.32 xG vs Malm\u00f6 FF W 1.28 \u2192 St. P\u00f6lten Femenino 36.1%",
"Market: Malm\u00f6 FF W ~28.2% implied",
"Market Steam: St. P\u00f6lten Femenino +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean St. P\u00f6lten Femenino with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 7.88,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "St. P\u00f6lten Femenino",
"market_prob": 28.23,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.95,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.7,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.83,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Malm\u00f6 FF W",
"market_prob": 46.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.78,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.98,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.78,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.02,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.33,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.83,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.33,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.17,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.83,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Malm\u00f6 FF W",
"market_prob_pct": 46.07,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "St. P\u00f6lten Femenino"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Malm\u00f6 FF W\u0027s win probability at 46.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 11.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.83,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "St. P\u00f6lten Femenino",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 28.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 7.9,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 65,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten Femenino, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten Femenino. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: St. P\u00f6lten Femenino 1.32 xG vs Malm\u00f6 FF W 1.28 \u2192 St. P\u00f6lten Femenino 36.1%",
"Market: Malm\u00f6 FF W ~28.2% implied",
"Market Steam: St. P\u00f6lten Femenino +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean St. P\u00f6lten Femenino with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.83,
"hero_label": "Malm\u00f6 FF W",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, St. P\u00f6lten Femenino has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Malm\u00f6 FF W than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on St. P\u00f6lten Femenino.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Malm\u00f6 FF W than the current fair estimate.",
"However, St. P\u00f6lten Femenino has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on St. P\u00f6lten Femenino."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Malm\u00f6 FF W more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, St. P\u00f6lten Femenino has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/8) supports the current market view on St. P\u00f6lten Femenino."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.83,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Malm\u00f6 FF W",
"largest_gap_pp": -11.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Malm\u00f6 FF W higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 7.88,
"edge_pp": 7.88,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "St. P\u00f6lten Femenino",
"market_prob_pct": 28.23,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.95,
"edge_pp": 3.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.7,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -11.83,
"edge_pp": -11.83,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Malm\u00f6 FF W",
"market_prob_pct": 46.07,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on St. P\u00f6lten Femenino.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Malm\u00f6 FF W (28.2%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 St. P\u00f6lten Femenino, Market \u2192 Malm\u00f6 FF W, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 51.81,
"closing_odds": 1.93,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 51.81,
"entry_odds": 1.93,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"pick_team": "St. P\u00f6lten Femenino",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "St. P\u00f6lten Femenino",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "malmo-ff-w",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Malm\u00f6 FF W",
"away_team_id": 21698,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/21698.webp",
"away_team_name": "Malm\u00f6 FF W",
"away_team_public_id": "5Y4oLswAOIOk0S",
"away_team_slug": "malmo-ff-w",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1638410,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Austria",
"home_team_display_name": "St. P\u00f6lten Femenino",
"home_team_id": 10227,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10227.webp",
"home_team_name": "St. P\u00f6lten Femenino",
"home_team_public_id": "2j0vBnmUav0XHI",
"home_team_slug": "st-polten-w",
"ht.home_team_slug": "st-polten-w",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "UEFA Europa League Femenina",
"league_id": 1191,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1191.webp",
"league_name": "UEFA Europa League Femenina",
"league_public_id": "31H7W631HCwxDJ",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-23 16:45:00",
"public_id": "3TmWQ4zO8wf8h3",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Sankt Polten",
"venue_name": "Voithplatz"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4935,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0584,
"ev": -0.2235,
"implied_prob": 0.4607,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4607,
"draw": 0.257,
"home": 0.2823
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.4023
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2821,
"best_odd": 3.46,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.0721,
"implied_prob": 0.257,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4607,
"draw": 0.257,
"home": 0.2823
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2682
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2646,
"best_odd": 3.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.0452,
"implied_prob": 0.2823,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4607,
"draw": 0.257,
"home": 0.2823
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3031
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": -0.1757,
"ev": -0.3392,
"implied_prob": 0.5181,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.46,
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": 0.0265,
"implied_prob": 0.289,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.15,
"edge": 0.0435,
"ev": 0.1369,
"implied_prob": 0.3175,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1666,
"alpha_yes": 0.229,
"best_no_odd": 2.4,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0533,
"edge_yes": -0.0533,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.092,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0592,
"ev_yes": -0.1443,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0958,
"implied_no": 0.4017,
"implied_yes": 0.5983,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1666,
"best_odd": 2.275,
"edge": 0.0083,
"ev": -0.0592,
"implied_prob": 0.4052,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4135
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.229,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0114,
"ev": -0.0958,
"implied_prob": 0.5948,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5834
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4135,
"p_final_yes": 0.5834,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2134,
"alpha_under": 0.194,
"best_over_odd": 1.64,
"best_under_odd": 2.38,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.575,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.12,
"edge_over": -0.0978,
"edge_under": 0.0978,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2095,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1272,
"ev_under": 0.2328,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0586,
"implied_over": 0.5798,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5737,
"implied_under": 0.4202,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4263,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2134,
"best_odd": 1.575,
"edge": -0.0196,
"ev": -0.1272,
"implied_prob": 0.5737,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5542
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.194,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.0586,
"implied_prob": 0.4263,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4441
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5542,
"p_final_under": 0.4441,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2328,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.1
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten Femenino, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten Femenino."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 23,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates St. P\u00f6lten Femenino at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies St. P\u00f6lten Femenino as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten Femenino, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten Femenino.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "St. P\u00f6lten Femenino",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "23 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten Femenino, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten Femenino.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten Femenino, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten Femenino.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0452,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2823,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31746031746031744,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1368,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.0452,
"implied_prob": 0.2823,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "St. P\u00f6lten Femenino"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1666,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.275,
"edge": 0.0083,
"market_prob": 0.4052,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1666,
"best_odd": 2.275,
"edge": 0.0083,
"ev": -0.0592,
"implied_prob": 0.4052,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4135
},
"p_final": 0.4135,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0592,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.229,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0114,
"ev": -0.0958,
"implied_prob": 0.5948,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5834
}
},
"edge": 0.0533,
"ev": 0.092,
"implied_prob": 0.4017,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.194,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0178,
"market_prob": 0.4263,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2134,
"best_odd": 1.575,
"edge": -0.0196,
"ev": -0.1272,
"implied_prob": 0.5737,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5542
},
"p_final": 0.4441,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0586,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.194,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.0586,
"implied_prob": 0.4263,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4441
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0978,
"ev": 0.2328,
"implied_prob": 0.4202,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1638410,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2328,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Malm\u00f6 FF W",
"home": "St. P\u00f6lten Femenino"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.084413,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2328,
"implied_prob": 0.4202,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0452,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2823,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31746031746031744,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1368,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1638410,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-23T16:44:06.759114+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para St. Pölten Femenino & Malmö FF W!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Mundo. UEFA Europa League Femenina Predicciones
