Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Sporting CP Femenino Brøndby IF ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.14
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Brøndby IF win · Brøndby IF 4–1 Sporting CP Femenino
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "95235ee513439c6eb7195b95f1288510af5df1b288dcb6b4f25e2d142a8fe0ab",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.31,
"away_win_prob": 0.3564,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.81,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.88,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.29,
"home_win_prob": 0.347,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "No predictions available",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "33%",
"percent_draw": "33%",
"percent_home": "33%",
"winner_name": null
},
"away_xg": 1.31,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Sporting CP Femenino",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0593,
"edge_gap": 0.0087,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4153,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 35.6,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 34.7
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.14
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.14,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Sporting CP Femenino Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.41,
"market_odds": 2.14,
"model_odds": 2.81,
"overround": 12.5,
"prob_edge": -11.1,
"value_pct": -23.8,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 73.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 72.5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.31,
"home_expected": 1.29,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Br\u00f8ndby IF or Draw",
"prob": 64.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Br\u00f8ndby IF or Sporting CP Femenino",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Sporting CP Femenino",
"prob": 65.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Br\u00f8ndby IF or Sporting CP Femenino",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 35.6,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 34.7,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Sporting CP Femenino"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 4.5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 2.4,
"implied_prob": 28.9,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.46
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Sporting CP Femenino",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 41.53,
"draw": 25.68,
"home": 32.79
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-23 15:59:42",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-23 15:29:51",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Br\u00f8ndby IF",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.79,
"gap_pp": 1.94,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 34.73
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.68,
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.53,
"gap_pp": -5.93,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 35.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 54.72,
"gap_pp": -6.52,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.28,
"gap_pp": 6.52,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.71,
"early": 2.71,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.79,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.79,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.46,
"early": 3.46,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.68,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.68,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.14,
"early": 2.14,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.53,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.53,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.68,
"early": 1.68,
"implied_closing_pct": 54.72,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 54.72,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.03,
"early": 2.03,
"implied_closing_pct": 45.28,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 45.28,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.7,
"ev": -0.055,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.29,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2029,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0133,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"market_prob": 0.4526,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2232,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0146,
"ev": -0.1102,
"implied_prob": 0.5474,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5328
},
"p_final": 0.4659,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0464,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.059,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2029,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0133,
"ev": -0.059,
"implied_prob": 0.4526,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4659
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1902,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.0,
"text": "-19.0%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1137,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.4,
"text": "+11.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1137,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10252.33,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1681,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0074,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.411,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1681,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0586,
"implied_prob": 0.411,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4184
},
"p_final": 0.4184,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0237,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0586,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2312,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.0912,
"implied_prob": 0.589,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5788
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0237,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.4,
"text": "+2.4%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.128,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.8,
"text": "-12.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0237,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 5218.96,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1634,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.3,
"text": "-16.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4153,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0724,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.2,
"text": "-7.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2384,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.8%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Sporting CP Femenino",
"sort_key": 1781.9,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +21.7%",
"alert_team": "Br\u00f8ndby IF",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.89,
"hero_label": "Sporting CP Femenino",
"market_prob_pct": 41.5,
"market_team": "Sporting CP Femenino",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Sporting CP Femenino",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 80,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sporting CP Femenino)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sporting CP Femenino)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sporting CP Femenino at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sporting CP Femenino as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sporting CP Femenino",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sporting CP Femenino).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1634,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4153,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4672897196261682,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2384,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.1,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 86,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.89,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.89,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.31,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.29,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.31 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +21.7%",
"steam_team": "Br\u00f8ndby IF",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sporting CP Femenino).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sporting CP Femenino)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sporting CP Femenino)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sporting CP Femenino at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sporting CP Femenino as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sporting CP Femenino",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sporting CP Femenino).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1634,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4153,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4672897196261682,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2384,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Br\u00f8ndby IF 1.29 xG vs Sporting CP Femenino 1.31 \u2192 Sporting CP Femenino 35.6%",
"Market: Sporting CP Femenino ~41.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Br\u00f8ndby IF odds \u2191 +21.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Sporting CP Femenino with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 1.91,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Br\u00f8ndby IF",
"market_prob": 32.79,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.97,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.68,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.89,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Sporting CP Femenino",
"market_prob": 41.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.97,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.17,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.97,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.83,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.35,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.85,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.35,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.15,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -5.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Sporting CP Femenino",
"market_prob_pct": 41.53,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Br\u00f8ndby IF"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Sporting CP Femenino\u0027s win probability at 41.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 5.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 5.89,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Sporting CP Femenino",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 41.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -5.9,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -5.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 86,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Sporting CP Femenino \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Br\u00f8ndby IF 1.29 xG vs Sporting CP Femenino 1.31 \u2192 Sporting CP Femenino 35.6%",
"Market: Sporting CP Femenino ~41.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Br\u00f8ndby IF odds \u2191 +21.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Sporting CP Femenino with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.89,
"hero_label": "Sporting CP Femenino",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Br\u00f8ndby IF odds lengthened \u2191 +21.7%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Br\u00f8ndby IF has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Sporting CP Femenino. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Br\u00f8ndby IF \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.7% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Sporting CP Femenino. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Br\u00f8ndby IF has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Br\u00f8ndby IF \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.7% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Sporting CP Femenino above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Br\u00f8ndby IF has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/7) supports the current market view on Br\u00f8ndby IF."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.89,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Sporting CP Femenino",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Sporting CP Femenino higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.9,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 1.91,
"edge_pp": 1.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Br\u00f8ndby IF",
"market_prob_pct": 32.79,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.97,
"edge_pp": 3.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.68,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -5.89,
"edge_pp": -5.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Sporting CP Femenino",
"market_prob_pct": 41.53,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Br\u00f8ndby IF \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.7% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Sporting CP Femenino (41.5%).",
"However, Br\u00f8ndby IF has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +21.7%, 5/7) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Sporting CP Femenino \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.73,
"closing_odds": 2.14,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.73,
"entry_odds": 2.14,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.5
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 21.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h 2m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"5/7 books lengthened Br\u00f8ndby IF together (21.7% drift, score 80) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.80",
"2.55",
"2.30"
],
"display": "2.88 \u2192 2.30 \u2192 2.80",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h 2m",
"pick_team": "Br\u00f8ndby IF",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.3,
2.71,
2.8
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,3.2 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.3,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Br\u00f8ndby IF odds \u2191 +21.7% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Br\u00f8ndby IF",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Br\u00f8ndby IF odds \u2191 +21.7% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.7%",
"open_odds": 2.3,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Br\u00f8ndby IF",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 80,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.7%",
"open_odds": 2.3,
"pick_team": "Br\u00f8ndby IF",
"steam_score": 80,
"steam_team_name": "Br\u00f8ndby IF",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "sporting-cp-w",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Sporting CP Femenino",
"away_team_id": 20511,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/20511.webp",
"away_team_name": "Sporting CP Femenino",
"away_team_public_id": "1ZtgsuXdj8y3dr",
"away_team_slug": "sporting-cp-w",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1638398,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Denmark",
"home_team_display_name": "Br\u00f8ndby IF",
"home_team_id": 10883,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10883.webp",
"home_team_name": "Br\u00f8ndby IF",
"home_team_name_canonical": "Br\u00f8ndby IF",
"home_team_public_id": "59RZDdhPh4lmZT",
"home_team_slug": "brndby",
"ht.home_team_slug": "brndby",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "UEFA Europa League Femenina",
"league_id": 1191,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1191.webp",
"league_name": "UEFA Europa League Femenina",
"league_public_id": "31H7W631HCwxDJ",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-23 16:00:00",
"public_id": "0gcoToj5KuBmF7",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Copenhagen",
"venue_name": "Br\u00f8ndby IF Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.41,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0243,
"ev": -0.1634,
"implied_prob": 0.4153,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4153,
"draw": 0.2568,
"home": 0.3279
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3909
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.282,
"best_odd": 3.46,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0724,
"implied_prob": 0.2568,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4153,
"draw": 0.2568,
"home": 0.3279
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2681
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4369,
"best_odd": 2.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.0884,
"implied_prob": 0.3279,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4153,
"draw": 0.2568,
"home": 0.3279
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3364
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": -0.1114,
"ev": -0.2383,
"implied_prob": 0.4673,
"model_prob": 0.3559
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.46,
"edge": 0.0078,
"ev": 0.0269,
"implied_prob": 0.289,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.71,
"edge": -0.0217,
"ev": -0.0589,
"implied_prob": 0.369,
"model_prob": 0.3473
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1681,
"alpha_yes": 0.2312,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.6,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0435,
"edge_yes": -0.0435,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0237,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0586,
"ev_yes": -0.128,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0912,
"implied_no": 0.4115,
"implied_yes": 0.5885,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1681,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0586,
"implied_prob": 0.411,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4184
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2312,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.0912,
"implied_prob": 0.589,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5788
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.4184,
"p_final_yes": 0.5788,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2232,
"alpha_under": 0.2029,
"best_over_odd": 1.68,
"best_under_odd": 2.15,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.02,
"edge_over": -0.0697,
"edge_under": 0.0697,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1902,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1102,
"ev_under": 0.1137,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.059,
"implied_over": 0.5517,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5474,
"implied_under": 0.4483,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4526,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2232,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0146,
"ev": -0.1102,
"implied_prob": 0.5474,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5328
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2029,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0133,
"ev": -0.059,
"implied_prob": 0.4526,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4659
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5328,
"p_final_under": 0.4659,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1137,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sporting CP Femenino)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sporting CP Femenino at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sporting CP Femenino as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sporting CP Femenino",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sporting CP Femenino).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1634,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4153,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4672897196261682,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2384,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0243,
"ev": -0.1634,
"implied_prob": 0.4153,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Sporting CP Femenino"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1681,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0074,
"market_prob": 0.411,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1681,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0586,
"implied_prob": 0.411,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4184
},
"p_final": 0.4184,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0586,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2312,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.0912,
"implied_prob": 0.589,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5788
}
},
"edge": 0.0435,
"ev": 0.0237,
"implied_prob": 0.4115,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2029,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0133,
"market_prob": 0.4526,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2232,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0146,
"ev": -0.1102,
"implied_prob": 0.5474,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5328
},
"p_final": 0.4659,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.059,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2029,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0133,
"ev": -0.059,
"implied_prob": 0.4526,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4659
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0697,
"ev": 0.1137,
"implied_prob": 0.4483,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1638398,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1137,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3559,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3473
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sporting CP Femenino",
"home": "Br\u00f8ndby IF"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.041228,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1137,
"implied_prob": 0.4483,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1634,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4153,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4672897196261682,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2384,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1638398,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-23T15:59:44.171195+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Brøndby IF & Sporting CP Femenino!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Mundo. UEFA Europa League Femenina Predicciones
