Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Northcote City Northcote City ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.56
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Northcote City win · Northcote City 3–2 Bulleen Lions
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "21b3711605e00a28a3baf16dc6841277374d75492bfa6e0c5dbe7704ab5b212a",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.21,
"away_win_prob": 0.3103,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.457,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2951,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.22,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.53,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.39,
"home_win_prob": 0.3946,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Bulleen Lions",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Bulleen Lions"
},
"away_xg": 1.21,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Northcote City",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0067,
"edge_gap": 0.0846,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3882,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 31.0,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 39.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.33
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.33,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Northcote City Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.58,
"market_odds": 2.33,
"model_odds": 2.53,
"overround": 10.6,
"prob_edge": -3.4,
"value_pct": -7.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 9,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 26,
"away_score_rate": 70.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 8,
"home_failed_to_score": 4,
"home_played": 26,
"home_score_rate": 75.1,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.21,
"home_expected": 1.39,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Northcote City or Draw",
"prob": 69.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Northcote City or Bulleen Lions",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Bulleen Lions",
"prob": 60.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Northcote City or Bulleen Lions",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 31.0,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 39.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Northcote City"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.9,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 3.2,
"implied_prob": 28.6,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.5,
"odds": 3.5
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Bulleen Lions",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 35.33,
"draw": 25.84,
"home": 38.82
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 09:29:10",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 08:59:29",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Northcote City",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.82,
"gap_pp": 0.67,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 39.49
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.84,
"gap_pp": 3.63,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.47
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.33,
"gap_pp": -4.3,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 31.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 59.53,
"gap_pp": -11.33,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.47,
"gap_pp": 11.33,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.33,
"early": 2.33,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.82,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 38.82,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.5,
"early": 3.5,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.84,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.84,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.56,
"early": 2.56,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.33,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.33,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.55,
"early": 1.55,
"implied_closing_pct": 59.53,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 59.53,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.28,
"early": 2.28,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.47,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.47,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 11.3,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.8,
"ev": -0.0625,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.39,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1557,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0183,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.4005,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2141,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0251,
"ev": -0.1328,
"implied_prob": 0.5995,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5743
},
"p_final": 0.4188,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1707,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0535,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1557,
"best_odd": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": -0.0535,
"implied_prob": 0.4005,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4188
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2433,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -24.3,
"text": "-24.3%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2173,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 21.7,
"text": "+21.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2173,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10345.57,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1579,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0129,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"market_prob": 0.375,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1579,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0129,
"ev": -0.0689,
"implied_prob": 0.375,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.3879
},
"p_final": 0.3879,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0968,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0689,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2171,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0178,
"ev": -0.1256,
"implied_prob": 0.625,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.6072
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1516,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 15.2,
"text": "+15.2%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2072,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.7,
"text": "-20.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1516,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 10136.44,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Northcote City.",
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0885,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.8,
"text": "-8.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3882,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0594,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.9,
"text": "-5.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0799,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Northcote City",
"sort_key": 1785.15,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/11",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.3,
"hero_label": "Bulleen Lions",
"market_prob_pct": 38.8,
"market_team": "Northcote City",
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_team": "Northcote City",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Northcote City."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Northcote City."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Northcote City at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Northcote City as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Northcote City.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Northcote City",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Northcote City.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Northcote City.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0885,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3882,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4291845493562232,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0799,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/11",
"breadth_ratio": 0.45454545454545453,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.5,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 76,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.3,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.3,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.21,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.39,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.39 \u00b7 Away xG 1.21 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Northcote City.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Northcote City."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Northcote City."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Northcote City at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Northcote City as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Northcote City.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Northcote City",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Northcote City.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Northcote City.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0885,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3882,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4291845493562232,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0799,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Northcote City.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Northcote City 1.39 xG vs Bulleen Lions 1.21 \u2192 Northcote City 39.5%",
"Market: Northcote City ~38.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -4.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Northcote City, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 0.64,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "Northcote City",
"market_prob": 38.82,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.67,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.3,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "Bulleen Lions",
"market_prob": 35.33,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.62,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.82,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.62,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.18,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.44,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.74,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.44,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.26,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -4.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Bulleen Lions",
"market_prob_pct": 35.33,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.3,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Northcote City",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 38.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+0.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 0.7,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+0.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 0.7,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 76,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Northcote City. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Northcote City 1.39 xG vs Bulleen Lions 1.21 \u2192 Northcote City 39.5%",
"Market: Northcote City ~38.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -4.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Northcote City, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.3,
"hero_label": "Bulleen Lions",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Draw odds shortened \u2193 -4.0%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 4.0%. Confirmation remains limited (5/11 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 4.0%. Confirmation remains limited (5/11 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Draw has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 4.0%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (5/11), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.3,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Bulleen Lions",
"largest_gap_pp": -4.3,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.3,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 0.64,
"edge_pp": 0.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Northcote City",
"market_prob_pct": 38.82,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.67,
"edge_pp": 3.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.84,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.3,
"edge_pp": -4.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Bulleen Lions",
"market_prob_pct": 35.33,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Northcote City (38.8%).",
"Draw has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -4.0%, 5/11).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Northcote City, Market \u2192 Northcote City, Recent sharp money \u2192 Draw.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 39.06,
"closing_odds": 2.56,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 39.06,
"entry_odds": 2.56,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.8
}
],
"books_total": 11,
"breadth_display": "5/11",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 21h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.80 \u2192 3.20 \u2192 3.60) \u2014 net 4.0% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.75",
"3.62",
"3.50"
],
"display": "3.80 \u2192 3.20 \u2192 3.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 21h 45m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.75,
3.5,
3.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,10.8",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.75,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.6,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"open_odds": 3.75,
"summary": "Market moved toward Draw while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/11",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"open_odds": 3.75,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "bulleen-lions",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Bulleen Lions",
"away_team_id": 16781,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/16781.webp",
"away_team_name": "Bulleen Lions",
"away_team_public_id": "3LgHIINBaxsnsK",
"away_team_slug": "bulleen-lions",
"country_code": "AU",
"country_display_name": "Australia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/au.svg",
"country_id": 9,
"country_name": "Australia",
"fixture_id": 1637270,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Australia",
"home_team_display_name": "Northcote City",
"home_team_id": 16788,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/16788.webp",
"home_team_name": "Northcote City",
"home_team_public_id": "4SbnWFitgKBJNu",
"home_team_slug": "northcote-city",
"ht.home_team_slug": "northcote-city",
"league_country": "Australia",
"league_country_display": "Australia",
"league_display_name": "NPL 2 de Victoria",
"league_id": 836,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/836.webp",
"league_name": "NPL 2 de Victoria",
"league_public_id": "3oncTlJI5TVXF2",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-11 09:30:00",
"public_id": "4PTw5SMmgwhSjp",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Melbourne",
"venue_name": "John Cain Memorial Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.421,
"best_odd": 2.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0181,
"ev": -0.1418,
"implied_prob": 0.3533,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3533,
"draw": 0.2584,
"home": 0.3882
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.3352
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2837,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0594,
"implied_prob": 0.2584,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3533,
"draw": 0.2584,
"home": 0.3882
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.2687
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4455,
"best_odd": 2.33,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.003,
"ev": -0.0885,
"implied_prob": 0.3882,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3533,
"draw": 0.2584,
"home": 0.3882
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.3912
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.56,
"edge": -0.0803,
"ev": -0.2056,
"implied_prob": 0.3906,
"model_prob": 0.3103
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.009,
"ev": 0.0316,
"implied_prob": 0.2857,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.33,
"edge": -0.0342,
"ev": -0.0798,
"implied_prob": 0.4292,
"model_prob": 0.3949
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1579,
"alpha_yes": 0.2171,
"best_no_odd": 2.52,
"best_yes_odd": 1.46,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0844,
"edge_yes": -0.0844,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1516,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0689,
"ev_yes": -0.2072,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1256,
"implied_no": 0.3726,
"implied_yes": 0.6274,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1579,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0129,
"ev": -0.0689,
"implied_prob": 0.375,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.3879
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2171,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0178,
"ev": -0.1256,
"implied_prob": 0.625,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.6072
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.3879,
"p_final_yes": 0.6072,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2141,
"alpha_under": 0.1557,
"best_over_odd": 1.57,
"best_under_odd": 2.35,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.51,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.26,
"edge_over": -0.1162,
"edge_under": 0.1162,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2433,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1328,
"ev_under": 0.2173,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0535,
"implied_over": 0.5982,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5995,
"implied_under": 0.4018,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4005,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2141,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0251,
"ev": -0.1328,
"implied_prob": 0.5995,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5743
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1557,
"best_odd": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": -0.0535,
"implied_prob": 0.4005,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4188
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5743,
"p_final_under": 0.4188,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Northcote City."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Northcote City at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Northcote City as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Northcote City.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Northcote City",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Northcote City.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Northcote City.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0885,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3882,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4291845493562232,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0799,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.003,
"ev": -0.0885,
"implied_prob": 0.3882,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Northcote City"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1579,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0129,
"market_prob": 0.375,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1579,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0129,
"ev": -0.0689,
"implied_prob": 0.375,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.3879
},
"p_final": 0.3879,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0689,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2171,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0178,
"ev": -0.1256,
"implied_prob": 0.625,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.6072
}
},
"edge": 0.0844,
"ev": 0.1516,
"implied_prob": 0.3726,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1557,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0183,
"market_prob": 0.4005,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2141,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0251,
"ev": -0.1328,
"implied_prob": 0.5995,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5743
},
"p_final": 0.4188,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0535,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1557,
"best_odd": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": -0.0535,
"implied_prob": 0.4005,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4188
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1162,
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.4018,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1637270,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2173,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3103,
"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3949
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1516,
"implied_prob": 0.3726,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1516,
"implied_prob": 0.3726,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Bulleen Lions",
"home": "Northcote City"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078793,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.4018,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0885,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3882,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4291845493562232,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0799,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1637270,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T09:29:13.125100+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Northcote City & Bulleen Lions!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
NPL 2 de Victoria — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brunswick Juventus FC | 26 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 53 |
| 2 | Melbourne Knights | 26 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 52 |
| 3 | Northcote City | 26 | 15 | 4 | 7 | 49 |
| 4 | Bulleen Lions | 26 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 48 |
| 5 | Melbourne Victory II | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 46 |
| 6 | Eltham Redbacks FC | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 39 |
| 7 | Melbourne Srbija | 26 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 39 |
| 8 | Brunswick City | 26 | 10 | 3 | 13 | 33 |
| 9 | North Geelong Warriors | 26 | 10 | 2 | 14 | 32 |
| 10 | Langwarrin | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 30 |
| 11 | Manningham United Blues | 26 | 9 | 3 | 14 | 30 |
| 12 | North Sunshine Eagles | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 26 |
| 13 | Western United II | 26 | 8 | 1 | 17 | 25 |
| 14 | Port Melbourne | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 17 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne Victory II | 26 | 59 | 36 | +23 | 46 |
| 2 | Eltham Redbacks FC | 26 | 58 | 41 | +17 | 39 |
| 3 | Brunswick Juventus FC | 26 | 50 | 32 | +18 | 53 |
| 4 | Bulleen Lions | 26 | 50 | 32 | +18 | 48 |
| 5 | Melbourne Knights | 26 | 49 | 24 | +25 | 52 |
| 6 | Brunswick City | 26 | 49 | 51 | -2 | 33 |
| 7 | Langwarrin | 26 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 30 |
| 8 | Western United II | 26 | 46 | 72 | -26 | 25 |
| 9 | Northcote City | 26 | 44 | 29 | +15 | 49 |
| 10 | Manningham United Blues | 26 | 38 | 58 | -20 | 30 |
| 11 | North Geelong Warriors | 26 | 37 | 52 | -15 | 32 |
| 12 | North Sunshine Eagles | 26 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 26 |
| 13 | Melbourne Srbija | 26 | 30 | 26 | +4 | 39 |
| 14 | Port Melbourne | 26 | 14 | 58 | -44 | 17 |
