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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Zamora FC B Zamora FC B ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.85
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Zamora FC B win · Ureña SC 0–3 Zamora FC B
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "7478236da45f64c185ff7e8f6dd53a7c8e7a8d9823b601604c3560d0a2ec51b5",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.39,
"away_win_prob": 0.3946,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.457,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2951,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.53,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.22,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.21,
"home_win_prob": 0.3103,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Zamora FC B",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Zamora FC B"
},
"away_xg": 1.39,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Zamora FC B",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1523,
"edge_gap": 0.0846,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2426,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 39.5,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 31.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 3.7
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.7,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"display_market": "Zamora FC B Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 4.12,
"market_odds": 3.7,
"model_odds": 2.53,
"overround": 11.4,
"prob_edge": 12.5,
"value_pct": 46.2,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 6,
"away_failed_to_score": 4,
"away_played": 24,
"away_score_rate": 75.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 7,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 25,
"home_score_rate": 70.2,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.39,
"home_expected": 1.21,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Ure\u00f1a SC or Draw",
"prob": 60.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Ure\u00f1a SC or Zamora FC B",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Zamora FC B",
"prob": 69.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Ure\u00f1a SC or Zamora FC B",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 39.5,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 31.0,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Zamora FC B"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.5,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"edge": 46.2,
"implied_prob": 27.0,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Zamora FC B Win",
"model_prob": 39.5,
"odds": 3.7
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Zamora FC B",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 24.26,
"draw": 27.21,
"home": 48.53
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 19:29:21",
"early_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 19:00:36",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Ure\u00f1a SC",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 48.53,
"gap_pp": -17.5,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 31.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.21,
"gap_pp": 2.27,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.47
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.26,
"gap_pp": 15.23,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 39.49
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.95,
"gap_pp": -5.75,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.05,
"gap_pp": 5.75,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.85,
"early": 1.85,
"implied_closing_pct": 48.53,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 48.53,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.3,
"early": 3.3,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.21,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.21,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.7,
"early": 3.7,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.26,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.26,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.75,
"early": 1.75,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.95,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.95,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.05,
"early": 2.05,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.05,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.05,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 15.2,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.21,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2066,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"edge": 0.0113,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.4634,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2272,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.0124,
"ev": -0.1036,
"implied_prob": 0.5366,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5242
},
"p_final": 0.4747,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0256,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0601,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2066,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0601,
"implied_prob": 0.4634,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4747
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.7,
"text": "-15.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.2,
"text": "+6.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0619,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10205.71,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Ure\u00f1a SC, but the model still strongly favours Zamora FC B.",
"consensus_odds": 3.7,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0282,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.8,
"text": "+2.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2426,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0282,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.8,
"text": "+2.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4611,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+46.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Zamora FC B",
"sort_key": 5222.56,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1524,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0033,
"edge_pp": 0.3,
"market_prob": 0.4355,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1524,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0033,
"ev": -0.0786,
"implied_prob": 0.4355,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4388
},
"p_final": 0.4388,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0403,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0786,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1677,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0036,
"ev": -0.0913,
"implied_prob": 0.5645,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5609
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0312,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.1,
"text": "-3.1%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1203,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.0,
"text": "-12.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0312,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 1792.2,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 17.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -17.5,
"hero_label": "Ure\u00f1a SC",
"market_prob_pct": 24.3,
"market_team": "Ure\u00f1a SC",
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_team": "Zamora FC B",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.5,
"summary": "The market has repriced Ure\u00f1a SC, but the model still strongly favours Zamora FC B."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.5,
"summary": "The market has repriced Ure\u00f1a SC, but the model still strongly favours Zamora FC B."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4613,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.3,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Zamora FC B at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 24.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Zamora FC B as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Ure\u00f1a SC, but the model still strongly favours Zamora FC B.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Zamora FC B",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Zamora FC B \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.82 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +46% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1635932 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.82 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Ure\u00f1a SC, but the model still strongly favours Zamora FC B.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +46% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Ure\u00f1a SC, but the model still strongly favours Zamora FC B.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0282,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.7,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2426,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.27027027027027023,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4611,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+46.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/4",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (18 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 16.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 62,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 17.5,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 17.5,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.39,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.21,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.21 \u00b7 Away xG 1.39 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Ure\u00f1a SC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 8,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 8,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Ure\u00f1a SC, but the model still strongly favours Zamora FC B.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.5,
"summary": "The market has repriced Ure\u00f1a SC, but the model still strongly favours Zamora FC B."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.5,
"summary": "The market has repriced Ure\u00f1a SC, but the model still strongly favours Zamora FC B."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4613,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.3,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Zamora FC B at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 24.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Zamora FC B as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Ure\u00f1a SC, but the model still strongly favours Zamora FC B.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Zamora FC B",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Zamora FC B \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.82 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +46% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1635932 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.82 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Ure\u00f1a SC, but the model still strongly favours Zamora FC B.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +46% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Ure\u00f1a SC, but the model still strongly favours Zamora FC B.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0282,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.7,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2426,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.27027027027027023,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4611,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+46.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Ure\u00f1a SC, but the model still strongly favours Zamora FC B.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ure\u00f1a SC 1.21 xG vs Zamora FC B 1.39 \u2192 Zamora FC B 39.5%",
"Market: Ure\u00f1a SC ~24.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Ure\u00f1a SC +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Zamora FC B, but market pricing diverges by 18 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -17.5,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "Ure\u00f1a SC",
"market_prob": 48.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.3,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.21,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.2,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "Zamora FC B",
"market_prob": 24.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.58,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.78,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.58,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.22,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.15,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.45,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.15,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.55,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -17.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Ure\u00f1a SC",
"market_prob_pct": 48.53,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Ure\u00f1a SC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Ure\u00f1a SC\u0027s win probability at 48.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 17.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 17.5,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Zamora FC B",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 24.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+15.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 15.2,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+15.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 15.2,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 62,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has repriced Ure\u00f1a SC, but the model still strongly favours Zamora FC B. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 8,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 8,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ure\u00f1a SC 1.21 xG vs Zamora FC B 1.39 \u2192 Zamora FC B 39.5%",
"Market: Ure\u00f1a SC ~24.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Ure\u00f1a SC +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Zamora FC B, but market pricing diverges by 18 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -17.5,
"hero_label": "Ure\u00f1a SC",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Ure\u00f1a SC is the dominant side.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Ure\u00f1a SC than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Ure\u00f1a SC than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Ure\u00f1a SC than the current fair estimate.",
"Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Ure\u00f1a SC is the dominant side."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Ure\u00f1a SC more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Ure\u00f1a SC (pricing gap 17.5 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 17.5,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Ure\u00f1a SC",
"largest_gap_pp": -17.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Ure\u00f1a SC higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 17.5,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -17.5,
"edge_pp": -17.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Ure\u00f1a SC",
"market_prob_pct": 48.53,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.3,
"edge_pp": 2.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.21,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 15.2,
"edge_pp": 15.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Zamora FC B",
"market_prob_pct": 24.26,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Ure\u00f1a SC than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Ure\u00f1a SC (24.3%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Zamora FC B, Market \u2192 Ure\u00f1a SC, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 54.05,
"closing_odds": 1.85,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.05,
"entry_odds": 1.85,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/4",
"current_odds": 1.85,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.85,
"pick_team": "Ure\u00f1a SC",
"steam_score": 18,
"steam_team_name": "Ure\u00f1a SC",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 17.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "zamora-fc-b",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Zamora FC B",
"away_team_id": 2841,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2841.webp",
"away_team_name": "Zamora FC B",
"away_team_public_id": "4uHIplxxSSgE67",
"away_team_slug": "zamora-fc-b",
"country_code": "VE",
"country_display_name": "Venezuela",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ve.svg",
"country_id": 165,
"country_name": "Venezuela",
"fixture_id": 1635932,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Venezuela",
"home_team_display_name": "Ure\u00f1a SC",
"home_team_id": 2816,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2816.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ure\u00f1a SC",
"home_team_public_id": "3FYqeywt8ubefe",
"home_team_slug": "urena-sc",
"ht.home_team_slug": "urena-sc",
"league_country": "Venezuela",
"league_country_display": "Venezuela",
"league_display_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n de Venezuela",
"league_id": 300,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/300.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n de Venezuela",
"league_public_id": "1DKuQ4FtczXxFC",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 19:30:00",
"public_id": "07m6nANiCiiCvs",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2315,
"best_odd": 3.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0353,
"ev": 0.0282,
"implied_prob": 0.2426,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2426,
"draw": 0.2721,
"home": 0.4853
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.2779
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2898,
"best_odd": 3.3,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0066,
"ev": -0.0805,
"implied_prob": 0.2721,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2426,
"draw": 0.2721,
"home": 0.4853
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.2786
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4425,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0774,
"ev": -0.2455,
"implied_prob": 0.4853,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2426,
"draw": 0.2721,
"home": 0.4853
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.4079
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.7,
"edge": 0.1247,
"ev": 0.4613,
"implied_prob": 0.2703,
"model_prob": 0.3949
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.3,
"edge": -0.0083,
"ev": -0.0273,
"implied_prob": 0.303,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.2302,
"ev": -0.4259,
"implied_prob": 0.5405,
"model_prob": 0.3103
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1524,
"alpha_yes": 0.1677,
"best_no_odd": 2.12,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0215,
"edge_yes": -0.0215,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0312,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0786,
"ev_yes": -0.1203,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0913,
"implied_no": 0.4355,
"implied_yes": 0.5645,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1524,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0033,
"ev": -0.0786,
"implied_prob": 0.4355,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4388
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1677,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0036,
"ev": -0.0913,
"implied_prob": 0.5645,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5609
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.4388,
"p_final_yes": 0.5609,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2272,
"alpha_under": 0.2066,
"best_over_odd": 1.75,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.71,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.98,
"edge_over": -0.0558,
"edge_under": 0.0558,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1036,
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0601,
"implied_over": 0.5378,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5366,
"implied_under": 0.4622,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4634,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2272,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.0124,
"ev": -0.1036,
"implied_prob": 0.5366,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5242
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2066,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0601,
"implied_prob": 0.4634,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4747
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5242,
"p_final_under": 0.4747,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4613,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.3
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.5,
"summary": "The market has repriced Ure\u00f1a SC, but the model still strongly favours Zamora FC B."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4613,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.3,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Zamora FC B at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 24.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Zamora FC B as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Ure\u00f1a SC, but the model still strongly favours Zamora FC B.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Zamora FC B",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Zamora FC B \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.82 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +46% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1635932 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.82 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Ure\u00f1a SC, but the model still strongly favours Zamora FC B.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +46% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Ure\u00f1a SC, but the model still strongly favours Zamora FC B.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0282,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.7,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2426,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.27027027027027023,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4611,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+46.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.7,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0353,
"ev": 0.0282,
"implied_prob": 0.2426,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Zamora FC B"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1524,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0033,
"market_prob": 0.4355,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1524,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0033,
"ev": -0.0786,
"implied_prob": 0.4355,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4388
},
"p_final": 0.4388,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0786,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1677,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0036,
"ev": -0.0913,
"implied_prob": 0.5645,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5609
}
},
"edge": 0.0215,
"ev": -0.0312,
"implied_prob": 0.4355,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2066,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"edge": 0.0113,
"market_prob": 0.4634,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2272,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.0124,
"ev": -0.1036,
"implied_prob": 0.5366,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5242
},
"p_final": 0.4747,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0601,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2066,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0601,
"implied_prob": 0.4634,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4747
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0558,
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4622,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1635932,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0619,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3949,
"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3103
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Zamora FC B",
"home": "Ure\u00f1a SC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.022445,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4622,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0282,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.7,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2426,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.27027027027027023,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4611,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+46.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1635932,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T19:29:23.200469+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Segunda División de Venezuela — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Lara | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 60 |
| 2 | Fundación Lara Deportiva | 27 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 50 |
| 3 | Ureña SC | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 45 |
| 4 | Yaracuyanos FC | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 |
| 5 | Zamora FC B | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 |
| 6 | Atlético El Vigía FC | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 34 |
| 7 | Puerto Cabello II | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 31 |
| 8 | Club Atlético Barinas | 28 | 9 | 4 | 15 | 31 |
| 9 | Real Frontera | 28 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 12 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Atlético Barinas | 28 | 49 | 59 | -10 | 31 |
| 2 | Fundación Lara Deportiva | 27 | 48 | 27 | +21 | 50 |
| 3 | Deportivo Lara | 27 | 46 | 20 | +26 | 60 |
| 4 | Zamora FC B | 27 | 42 | 36 | +6 | 40 |
| 5 | Ureña SC | 28 | 41 | 34 | +7 | 45 |
| 6 | Puerto Cabello II | 28 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 31 |
| 7 | Yaracuyanos FC | 27 | 34 | 27 | +7 | 40 |
| 8 | Atlético El Vigía FC | 28 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 34 |
| 9 | Real Frontera | 28 | 22 | 62 | -40 | 12 |
