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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (0 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Mes Kerman Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Niroye Zamini 0–0 Mes Kerman
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "874e8d69ecd64b98cf8c517de0bec3d83b0894eb9e8ce0078870c6038fb8e1e3",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.39,
"away_win_prob": 0.3946,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.457,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2951,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.53,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.22,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.21,
"home_win_prob": 0.3103,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Niroye Zamini or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Niroye Zamini"
},
"away_xg": 1.39,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Mes Kerman",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0799,
"edge_gap": 0.0846,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.315,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 39.5,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 31.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "bets io",
"odd": 2.81
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.81,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "bets io",
"display_market": "Mes Kerman Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.17,
"market_odds": 2.81,
"model_odds": 2.53,
"overround": 13.0,
"prob_edge": 3.9,
"value_pct": 11.1,
"value_rating": "value_bet"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 75.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 3,
"home_score_rate": 70.2,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.39,
"home_expected": 1.21,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Niroye Zamini or Draw",
"prob": 60.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Niroye Zamini or Mes Kerman",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Mes Kerman",
"prob": 69.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Niroye Zamini or Mes Kerman",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 39.5,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 31.0,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Mes Kerman"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.7,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "bets io",
"edge": 11.1,
"implied_prob": 35.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Mes Kerman Win",
"model_prob": 39.5,
"odds": 2.81
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.7,
"ev": -0.12,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.04,
"market_prob": 0.142,
"market_prob_pct": 14.2,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.21,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0972,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0148,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.3906,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1337,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0204,
"ev": -0.1165,
"implied_prob": 0.6094,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.589
},
"p_final": 0.4054,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2706,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0513,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.0972,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0148,
"ev": -0.0513,
"implied_prob": 0.3906,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4054
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3099,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -31.0,
"text": "-31.0%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.2706,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 27.1,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2706,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 10393.54,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0934,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.97,
"edge": 0.0161,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"market_prob": 0.3093,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.0934,
"best_odd": 2.97,
"edge": 0.0161,
"ev": -0.0335,
"implied_prob": 0.3093,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3254
},
"p_final": 0.3254,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4315,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0335,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1284,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0222,
"ev": -0.1109,
"implied_prob": 0.6907,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6685
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4315,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 43.1,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.2955,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -29.5,
"text": "-29.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.4315,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10388.35,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.81,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0259,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.6,
"text": "-2.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.315,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0259,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.6,
"text": "-2.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1097,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.0%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Mes Kerman",
"sort_key": 1793.525,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "Mes Kerman",
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_team": "Mes Kerman",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "neutral",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"key": "neutral",
"label": "Neutral",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.0,
"summary": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "neutral",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"key": "neutral",
"label": "Neutral",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.0,
"summary": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet."
},
"alignment_key": "neutral",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4315,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4315,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 68,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Mes Kerman at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Mes Kerman as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "No decisive market conflict on direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 verify price",
"market_signal": "No decisive market alignment yet",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Mes Kerman",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +43.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +43.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "68 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "neutral"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+43.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "model_value",
"reasons": [
"Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet.",
"Decision strength: 5.4/10"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Consensus-line value, reliability, and market alignment clear Primary rules \u2014 size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0259,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.315,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35587188612099646,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1097,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "2/2",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Market has already priced much of the edge",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 65,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.39,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.21,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.21 \u00b7 Away xG 1.39 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Niroye Zamini",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "neutral",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"key": "neutral",
"label": "Neutral",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.0,
"summary": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "neutral",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"key": "neutral",
"label": "Neutral",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.0,
"summary": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet."
},
"alignment_key": "neutral",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4315,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4315,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 68,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Mes Kerman at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Mes Kerman as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "No decisive market conflict on direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 verify price",
"market_signal": "No decisive market alignment yet",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Mes Kerman",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +43.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +43.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "68 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "neutral"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+43.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "model_value",
"reasons": [
"Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet.",
"Decision strength: 5.4/10"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Consensus-line value, reliability, and market alignment clear Primary rules \u2014 size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0259,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.315,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35587188612099646,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1097,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 verify price",
"subline": "Consensus-line value, reliability, and market alignment clear Primary rules \u2014 size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Niroye Zamini 1.21 xG vs Mes Kerman 1.39 \u2192 Mes Kerman 39.5%",
"Market Steam: Niroye Zamini +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Mes Kerman with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "Niroye Zamini",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "Mes Kerman",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.27,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 30.93,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -17.27,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 69.07,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.24,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 39.06,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.24,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 60.94,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Mes Kerman",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "No clear directional signal",
"positive": null
},
"market_prob_pct": 31.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+8.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 8.0,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+8.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 65,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The model and market both lean Mes Kerman, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Niroye Zamini remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Niroye Zamini 1.21 xG vs Mes Kerman 1.39 \u2192 Mes Kerman 39.5%",
"Market Steam: Niroye Zamini +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Mes Kerman with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Niroye Zamini",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Mes Kerman",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans Mes Kerman (39.5%).",
"The model and market both lean Mes Kerman, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Niroye Zamini remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 38.31,
"entry_odds": 2.61,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/2",
"current_odds": 2.61,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.61,
"pick_team": "Niroye Zamini",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_team_name": "Niroye Zamini",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "mes-kerman",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Mes Kerman",
"away_team_id": 2718,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2718.webp",
"away_team_name": "Mes Kerman",
"away_team_public_id": "47NII3MW0SwKEn",
"away_team_slug": "mes-kerman",
"country_code": "IR",
"country_display_name": "Iran",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ir.svg",
"country_id": 75,
"country_name": "Iran",
"fixture_id": 1632819,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Iran",
"home_team_display_name": "Niroye Zamini",
"home_team_id": 7502,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7502.webp",
"home_team_name": "Niroye Zamini",
"home_team_public_id": "3Rf4rw8yIuzfsW",
"home_team_slug": "niroye-zamini",
"ht.home_team_slug": "niroye-zamini",
"league_country": "Iran",
"league_country_display": "Iran",
"league_display_name": "Azadegan League",
"league_id": 291,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/291.webp",
"league_name": "Azadegan League",
"league_public_id": "2xgV5HSTOHOOvT",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-05 11:30:00",
"public_id": "2NX5TdcTmnVYQG",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_ou",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.396,
"best_odd": 2.81,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0317,
"ev": -0.0259,
"implied_prob": 0.315,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.315,
"draw": 0.3266,
"home": 0.3584
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.3467
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4285,
"best_odd": 2.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0137,
"ev": -0.1519,
"implied_prob": 0.3266,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.315,
"draw": 0.3266,
"home": 0.3584
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.313
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4176,
"best_odd": 2.47,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0201,
"ev": -0.1644,
"implied_prob": 0.3584,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.315,
"draw": 0.3266,
"home": 0.3584
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.3383
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.81,
"edge": 0.0391,
"ev": 0.1098,
"implied_prob": 0.3559,
"model_prob": 0.3949
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.71,
"edge": -0.0743,
"ev": -0.2012,
"implied_prob": 0.369,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.47,
"edge": -0.0945,
"ev": -0.2335,
"implied_prob": 0.4049,
"model_prob": 0.3103
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1337,
"alpha_yes": 0.0972,
"best_no_odd": 1.51,
"best_yes_odd": 2.34,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1524,
"edge_yes": 0.1524,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3099,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1165,
"ev_yes": 0.2706,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0513,
"implied_no": 0.6094,
"implied_yes": 0.3906,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1337,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0204,
"ev": -0.1165,
"implied_prob": 0.6094,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.589
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.0972,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0148,
"ev": -0.0513,
"implied_prob": 0.3906,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4054
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.589,
"p_final_yes": 0.4054,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.0934,
"alpha_under": 0.1284,
"best_over_odd": 2.97,
"best_under_odd": 1.36,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.97,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.33,
"edge_over": 0.1727,
"edge_under": -0.1727,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4315,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0335,
"ev_under": -0.2955,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1109,
"implied_over": 0.3093,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3093,
"implied_under": 0.6907,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6907,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.0934,
"best_odd": 2.97,
"edge": 0.0161,
"ev": -0.0335,
"implied_prob": 0.3093,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3254
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1284,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0222,
"ev": -0.1109,
"implied_prob": 0.6907,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6685
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3254,
"p_final_under": 0.6685,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4315,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4315,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4315,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.4
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "neutral",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"key": "neutral",
"label": "Neutral",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.0,
"summary": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet."
},
"alignment_key": "neutral",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4315,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4315,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 68,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Mes Kerman at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Mes Kerman as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "No decisive market conflict on direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 verify price",
"market_signal": "No decisive market alignment yet",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Mes Kerman",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +43.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +43.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "68 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "neutral"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+43.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "model_value",
"reasons": [
"Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet.",
"Decision strength: 5.4/10"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Consensus-line value, reliability, and market alignment clear Primary rules \u2014 size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0259,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.315,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35587188612099646,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1097,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.81,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0317,
"ev": -0.0259,
"implied_prob": 0.315,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Mes Kerman"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0972,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0148,
"market_prob": 0.3906,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1337,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0204,
"ev": -0.1165,
"implied_prob": 0.6094,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.589
},
"p_final": 0.4054,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0513,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.0972,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0148,
"ev": -0.0513,
"implied_prob": 0.3906,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4054
}
},
"edge": 0.1524,
"ev": 0.2706,
"implied_prob": 0.3906,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0934,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.97,
"edge": 0.0161,
"market_prob": 0.3093,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.0934,
"best_odd": 2.97,
"edge": 0.0161,
"ev": -0.0335,
"implied_prob": 0.3093,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3254
},
"p_final": 0.3254,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0335,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1284,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0222,
"ev": -0.1109,
"implied_prob": 0.6907,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6685
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1727,
"ev": 0.4315,
"implied_prob": 0.3093,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1632819,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4315,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3949,
"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3103
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4315,
"implied_prob": 0.3093,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4315,
"implied_prob": 0.3093,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Mes Kerman",
"home": "Niroye Zamini"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.129304,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2706,
"implied_prob": 0.3906,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0259,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.315,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35587188612099646,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1097,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1632819,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-05T11:29:06.922184+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Azadegan League — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saipa | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Pars Jonoubi JAM | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 3 | Mes Rafsanjan | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | Be'sat Kermanshah | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Naft Masjed Soleyman | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Shahin Bandar Ameri | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Ario Eslamshahr | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Naft Bandar Abbas | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Fard Alborz | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Niroye Zamini | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Novin Ahvaz | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Mes Kerman | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Naft Gachsaran | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Mes Soongoun | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 16 | Havadar | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Naft Masjed Soleyman | 4 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 2 | Be'sat Kermanshah | 4 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 | Saipa | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 9 |
| 4 | Shahin Bandar Ameri | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 5 | Novin Ahvaz | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 |
| 6 | Pars Jonoubi JAM | 4 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 7 | Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 4 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 6 |
| 8 | Naft Bandar Abbas | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | Ario Eslamshahr | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 | Mes Rafsanjan | 4 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 8 |
| 11 | Fard Alborz | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Niroye Zamini | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Mes Kerman | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Naft Gachsaran | 4 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | Mes Soongoun | 4 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 2 |
| 16 | Havadar | 4 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 1 |
