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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Palmeiras Palmeiras ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-0, 1-0, 2-1, 1-1, 3-0 1-0 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.26
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Palmeiras win · Palmeiras 1–0 LDU de Quito
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "3fe40a160559d3b679add616e165cd8c61439695183fc2f53afd1593630b3a5f",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 0.83,
"away_win_prob": 0.1324,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.498,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.502,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2291,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 7.55,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.36,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 1.57,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 2.02,
"home_win_prob": 0.6385,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.542,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.458
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Palmeiras or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Palmeiras"
},
"away_xg": 0.83,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Palmeiras",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.1097,
"edge_gap": 0.4081,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.7474,
"model_prob": 0.6377,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 13.3,
"draw": 23.0,
"home": 63.8
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.26
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.26,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Palmeiras Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.34,
"market_odds": 1.26,
"model_odds": 1.57,
"overround": 6.2,
"prob_edge": -15.7,
"value_pct": -19.7,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 4,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 8,
"away_score_rate": 56.4,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 8,
"home_score_rate": 86.7,
"no_prob": 49.8,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 50.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 50.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.83,
"home_expected": 2.02,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 11.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-0",
"prob": 7.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Palmeiras or Draw",
"prob": 86.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Palmeiras or LDU de Quito",
"prob": 77.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or LDU de Quito",
"prob": 36.1
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Palmeiras or Draw",
"pick_prob": 86.7
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 13.2,
"draw_pct": 22.9,
"home_pct": 63.8,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Palmeiras"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.85,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.5,
"over_prob": 54.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 54.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.85,
"under_prob": 45.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 67.5,
"implied_prob": 7.9,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "LDU de Quito Win",
"model_prob": 13.2,
"odds": 12.69
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "LDU de Quito",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 7.42,
"draw": 17.84,
"home": 74.74
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-09 21:59:04",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-09 21:29:17",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Palmeiras",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 74.74,
"gap_pp": -10.97,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 63.77
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 17.84,
"gap_pp": 5.13,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 22.96
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 7.42,
"gap_pp": 5.84,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 13.26
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.72,
"gap_pp": 7.48,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 54.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.28,
"gap_pp": -7.48,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 45.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.26,
"early": 1.26,
"implied_closing_pct": 74.74,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 74.74,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 5.28,
"early": 5.28,
"implied_closing_pct": 17.84,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 17.84,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 12.69,
"early": 12.69,
"implied_closing_pct": 7.42,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 7.42,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.03,
"early": 2.03,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.72,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.72,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.78,
"early": 1.78,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.28,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.28,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -8.2,
"ev": -0.41,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "2-0",
"market_odds": 5.0,
"market_prob": 0.2,
"market_prob_pct": 20.0,
"model_prob": 0.118,
"model_prob_pct": 11.8,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 11.8
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 11.8
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.7
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "3-0",
"prob": 7.9
}
]
},
"home_xg": 2.02,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2114,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.725,
"edge": 0.0345,
"edge_pp": 3.4,
"market_prob": 0.3386,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.502,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2906,
"best_odd": 1.395,
"edge": -0.0475,
"ev": -0.1436,
"implied_prob": 0.6614,
"model_prob": 0.498,
"p_final": 0.6139
},
"p_final": 0.3731,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3679,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0168,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2114,
"best_odd": 2.725,
"edge": 0.0345,
"ev": 0.0168,
"implied_prob": 0.3386,
"model_prob": 0.502,
"p_final": 0.3731
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2829,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -28.3,
"text": "-28.3%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.3855,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 38.6,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.3855,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 49.8,
"sort_key": 10496.95,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 50.2
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3127,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0222,
"edge_pp": 2.2,
"market_prob": 0.4709,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.542,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3127,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0222,
"ev": -0.0137,
"implied_prob": 0.4709,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.4931
},
"p_final": 0.4931,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.084,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0137,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3439,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.0245,
"ev": -0.1017,
"implied_prob": 0.5291,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.5046
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1057,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 10.6,
"text": "+10.6%"
},
"ev_under": -0.171,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.1,
"text": "-17.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1057,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 54.2,
"sort_key": 10095.13,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 45.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Palmeiras, but the model still strongly favours Palmeiras.",
"consensus_odds": 1.26,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1275,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.8,
"text": "-12.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.7474,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.077,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.7,
"text": "+7.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.6377,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1965,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Palmeiras",
"sort_key": 5261.6,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 815.4,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-0",
"top_prob": 11.8
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +1.6%",
"alert_team": "Palmeiras",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.89,
"hero_label": "Palmeiras",
"market_prob_pct": 74.7,
"market_team": "Palmeiras",
"model_prob_pct": 63.9,
"model_team": "Palmeiras",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Palmeiras, but the model still strongly favours Palmeiras."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Palmeiras, but the model still strongly favours Palmeiras."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3855,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6829,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Palmeiras at 63.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 74.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Palmeiras as the value side (63.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Palmeiras, but the model still strongly favours Palmeiras.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Palmeiras",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Palmeiras \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.35 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +68% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1631507 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.35 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +38.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +38.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +38.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +38.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+38.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Palmeiras, but the model still strongly favours Palmeiras.",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +68% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Palmeiras, but the model still strongly favours Palmeiras.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1275,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.26,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.7474,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6377,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7936507936507936,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1965,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 49.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=1.19"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.19
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8333333333333334,
"evidence": {
"score": 82,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.3,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 61,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.89,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.89,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 0.83,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 50.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.02,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.02,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.02 \u00b7 Away xG 0.83 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +50%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 1.6,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +1.6%",
"steam_team": "Palmeiras",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 63,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Palmeiras, but the model still strongly favours Palmeiras.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Palmeiras, but the model still strongly favours Palmeiras."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Palmeiras, but the model still strongly favours Palmeiras."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3855,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6829,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Palmeiras at 63.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 74.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Palmeiras as the value side (63.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Palmeiras, but the model still strongly favours Palmeiras.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Palmeiras",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Palmeiras \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.35 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +68% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1631507 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.35 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +38.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +38.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +38.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +38.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+38.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Palmeiras, but the model still strongly favours Palmeiras.",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +68% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Palmeiras, but the model still strongly favours Palmeiras.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1275,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.26,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.7474,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6377,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7936507936507936,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1965,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 49.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=1.19"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.19
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Palmeiras, but the model still strongly favours Palmeiras.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Palmeiras 2.02 xG vs LDU de Quito 0.83 \u2192 Palmeiras 63.9%",
"Market: Palmeiras ~74.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Palmeiras odds \u2191 +1.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Palmeiras, but the market has moved away from Palmeiras.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -10.89,
"fair_prob": 63.85,
"label": "Palmeiras",
"market_prob": 74.74,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.07,
"fair_prob": 22.91,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 17.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.82,
"fair_prob": 13.24,
"label": "LDU de Quito",
"market_prob": 7.42,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.05,
"fair_prob": 54.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.15,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.05,
"fair_prob": 45.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.85,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.17,
"fair_prob": 50.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 34.03,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.17,
"fair_prob": 49.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 65.97,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 63.85,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Palmeiras",
"market_prob_pct": 74.74,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Palmeiras"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Palmeiras\u0027s win probability at 74.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 63.9%, a difference of 10.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.89,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "Palmeiras",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 74.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-10.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -10.8,
"model_prob_pct": 63.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-10.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -10.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 61,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Palmeiras, but the model still strongly favours Palmeiras. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 63,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Palmeiras 2.02 xG vs LDU de Quito 0.83 \u2192 Palmeiras 63.9%",
"Market: Palmeiras ~74.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Palmeiras odds \u2191 +1.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Palmeiras, but the market has moved away from Palmeiras.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.89,
"hero_label": "Palmeiras",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Palmeiras odds lengthened \u2191 +1.6%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Palmeiras than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Palmeiras than the current fair estimate."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Palmeiras more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Palmeiras (\u2191 +1.6%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/6) supports the current market view on Palmeiras."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.89,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 40.9 pp (at 63.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 40.9,
"max_prob_pct": 63.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Palmeiras",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Palmeiras higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -10.89,
"edge_pp": -10.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 63.85,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Palmeiras",
"market_prob_pct": 74.74,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.07,
"edge_pp": 5.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 22.91,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 17.84,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.82,
"edge_pp": 5.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 13.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "LDU de Quito",
"market_prob_pct": 7.42,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Palmeiras (74.7%).",
"Palmeiras odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +1.6%, 5/6) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Palmeiras, Market \u2192 Palmeiras, while Palmeiras odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 79.37,
"closing_odds": 1.26,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 79.37,
"entry_odds": 1.26,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.4
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "5/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 1.3,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +1.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 1.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Stable line on Palmeiras \u2014 tracking only (1.6% vs. open).",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 1.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"1.30",
"1.28",
"1.26"
],
"display": "1.30 \u2192 1.22 \u2192 1.30",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"pick_team": "Palmeiras",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.30"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.22"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.30"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.28,
1.26,
1.3
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,9.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.28"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.26"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "1.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.30"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.28,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Efficient",
"phase_tip": "Stable consensus \u2014 limited edge from further drift.",
"pick_team": "Palmeiras",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "neutral",
"signal_icon": "\u2014",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 1.3,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +1.6%",
"open_odds": 1.28,
"summary": "Market moved away from Palmeiras while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Palmeiras",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "tracking",
"signal_label": "Tracking",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/6",
"current_odds": 1.3,
"move_display": "\u2191 +1.6%",
"open_odds": 1.28,
"pick_team": "Palmeiras",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_team_name": "Palmeiras",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "ldu-de-quito",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "LDU de Quito",
"away_team_id": 1158,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1158.webp",
"away_team_name": "LDU de Quito",
"away_team_public_id": "5LJnwIZPagjg3I",
"away_team_slug": "ldu-de-quito",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1631507,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Palmeiras",
"home_team_id": 121,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/121.webp",
"home_team_name": "Palmeiras",
"home_team_public_id": "3VP2oLsoYIsNW7",
"home_team_slug": "palmeiras",
"ht.home_team_slug": "palmeiras",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "CONMEBOL Libertadores",
"league_id": 13,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/13.webp",
"league_name": "CONMEBOL Libertadores",
"league_public_id": "3EuvLhbCdN21UC",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-09 22:00:00",
"public_id": "0IGzSDJJZ0OOCq",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Quito",
"venue_name": "Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1825,
"best_odd": 12.69,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0107,
"ev": 0.077,
"implied_prob": 0.0742,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.0742,
"draw": 0.1784,
"home": 0.7474
},
"model_prob": 0.1326,
"p_final": 0.0849
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1846,
"best_odd": 5.28,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0095,
"ev": -0.0083,
"implied_prob": 0.1784,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.0742,
"draw": 0.1784,
"home": 0.7474
},
"model_prob": 0.2296,
"p_final": 0.1878
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5013,
"best_odd": 1.26,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.055,
"ev": -0.1275,
"implied_prob": 0.7474,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.0742,
"draw": 0.1784,
"home": 0.7474
},
"model_prob": 0.6377,
"p_final": 0.6924
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 12.69,
"edge": 0.0538,
"ev": 0.6829,
"implied_prob": 0.0788,
"model_prob": 0.1326
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 5.28,
"edge": 0.0403,
"ev": 0.2125,
"implied_prob": 0.1894,
"model_prob": 0.2296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.26,
"edge": -0.1559,
"ev": -0.1964,
"implied_prob": 0.7937,
"model_prob": 0.6377
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2906,
"alpha_yes": 0.2114,
"best_no_odd": 1.44,
"best_yes_odd": 2.76,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1617,
"edge_yes": 0.1617,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2829,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1436,
"ev_yes": 0.3855,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": 0.0168,
"implied_no": 0.6597,
"implied_yes": 0.3403,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2906,
"best_odd": 1.395,
"edge": -0.0475,
"ev": -0.1436,
"implied_prob": 0.6614,
"model_prob": 0.498,
"p_final": 0.6139
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2114,
"best_odd": 2.725,
"edge": 0.0345,
"ev": 0.0168,
"implied_prob": 0.3386,
"model_prob": 0.502,
"p_final": 0.3731
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.6139,
"p_final_yes": 0.3731,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3127,
"alpha_under": 0.3439,
"best_over_odd": 2.04,
"best_under_odd": 1.81,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.0,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.78,
"edge_over": 0.0705,
"edge_under": -0.0705,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1057,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0137,
"ev_under": -0.171,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1017,
"implied_over": 0.4715,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4709,
"implied_under": 0.5285,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5291,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3127,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0222,
"ev": -0.0137,
"implied_prob": 0.4709,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.4931
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3439,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.0245,
"ev": -0.1017,
"implied_prob": 0.5291,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.5046
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4931,
"p_final_under": 0.5046,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.85,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3855,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6829,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3855,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.4
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Palmeiras, but the model still strongly favours Palmeiras."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3855,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6829,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Palmeiras at 63.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 74.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Palmeiras as the value side (63.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Palmeiras, but the model still strongly favours Palmeiras.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Palmeiras",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Palmeiras \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.35 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +68% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1631507 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.35 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +38.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +38.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +38.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +38.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+38.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Palmeiras, but the model still strongly favours Palmeiras.",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +68% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Palmeiras, but the model still strongly favours Palmeiras.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1275,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.26,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.7474,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6377,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7936507936507936,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1965,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 49.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=1.19"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.19
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.502,
"draw_prob": 0.2296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6377,
"over_prob": 0.542,
"total_xg": 2.85,
"under_prob": 0.458,
"xg_diff": 1.19
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.077,
"implied_prob": 0.0742,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.1326,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "longshot",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "LDU de Quito",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.26,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.055,
"ev": -0.1275,
"implied_prob": 0.7474,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.6377,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Palmeiras"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2114,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.725,
"edge": 0.0345,
"market_prob": 0.3386,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.502,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2906,
"best_odd": 1.395,
"edge": -0.0475,
"ev": -0.1436,
"implied_prob": 0.6614,
"model_prob": 0.498,
"p_final": 0.6139
},
"p_final": 0.3731,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0168,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2114,
"best_odd": 2.725,
"edge": 0.0345,
"ev": 0.0168,
"implied_prob": 0.3386,
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"p_final": 0.3731
}
},
"edge": 0.1617,
"ev": 0.3855,
"implied_prob": 0.3403,
"model_prob": 0.502,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3127,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0222,
"market_prob": 0.4709,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.542,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3127,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0222,
"ev": -0.0137,
"implied_prob": 0.4709,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.4931
},
"p_final": 0.4931,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0137,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3439,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.0245,
"ev": -0.1017,
"implied_prob": 0.5291,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.5046
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0705,
"ev": 0.1057,
"implied_prob": 0.4715,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1631507,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3855,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1326,
"draw": 0.2296,
"home": 0.6377
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1057,
"implied_prob": 0.4715,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.542,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1057,
"implied_prob": 0.4715,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.542,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "LDU de Quito",
"home": "Palmeiras"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.193521,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3855,
"implied_prob": 0.3403,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.502,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1275,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.26,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.7474,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6377,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7936507936507936,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1965,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1631507,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-09T21:59:08.570655+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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CONMEBOL Libertadores — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 2 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Independiente Medellín | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Cusco FC | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 6 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 16 |
| 2 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 6 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 9 |
| 3 | Independiente Medellín | 6 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 |
| 4 | Cusco FC | 6 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | +2.4 | 16 |
| 2 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | +2.3 | 9 |
| 3 | Independiente Medellín | 6 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 4 | Cusco FC | 6 | — | — | — | 1 |
