Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Al Minaa Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.15
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Al Minaa 1–1 Naft Maysan
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "0b644c730fe3952235e60b6b962b2dd628c3966a1fa5d5028d739b296ce1e3b8",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.22,
"away_win_prob": 0.3148,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.18,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.57,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.38,
"home_win_prob": 0.3897,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Al Minaa",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "0%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "50%",
"winner_name": "Al Minaa"
},
"away_xg": 1.22,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Al Minaa",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0233,
"edge_gap": 0.0747,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.413,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 31.5,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 39.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.15
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.15,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Al Minaa Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.42,
"market_odds": 2.15,
"model_odds": 2.57,
"overround": 12.6,
"prob_edge": -7.6,
"value_pct": -16.3,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 4,
"away_score_rate": 70.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 4,
"home_score_rate": 74.8,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.22,
"home_expected": 1.38,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Al Minaa or Draw",
"prob": 68.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Al Minaa or Naft Maysan",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Naft Maysan",
"prob": 61.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Al Minaa or Naft Maysan",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 31.5,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 39.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Al Minaa"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -16.3,
"implied_prob": 46.5,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Al Minaa Win",
"model_prob": 38.9,
"odds": 2.15
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Naft Maysan",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 29.4,
"draw": 29.3,
"home": 41.3
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-09 17:59:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-09 17:29:37",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Al Minaa",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.3,
"gap_pp": -2.33,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.97
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.3,
"gap_pp": 0.24,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.54
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.4,
"gap_pp": 2.09,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 31.49
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.22,
"gap_pp": 1.98,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.78,
"gap_pp": -1.98,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.15,
"early": 2.15,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.3,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.3,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.03,
"early": 3.03,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.3,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.3,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.02,
"early": 3.02,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.4,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.4,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.99,
"early": 1.99,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.22,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.22,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.71,
"early": 1.71,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.78,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.78,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.9,
"ev": -0.1875,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.38,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2258,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0066,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.4526,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2258,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0066,
"ev": -0.0724,
"implied_prob": 0.4526,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4592
},
"p_final": 0.4592,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0264,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0724,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2484,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0073,
"ev": -0.098,
"implied_prob": 0.5474,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5401
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1472,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.7,
"text": "+14.7%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1142,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.4,
"text": "-11.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1472,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10282.48,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2342,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"edge": 0.0084,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"market_prob": 0.5082,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2129,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0076,
"ev": -0.1043,
"implied_prob": 0.4918,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4841
},
"p_final": 0.5166,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0262,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0753,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2342,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": 0.0084,
"ev": -0.0753,
"implied_prob": 0.5082,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5166
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1245,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.4,
"text": "-12.4%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.039,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.9,
"text": "+3.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.039,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10035.1,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Naft Maysan, but the model still strongly favours Al Minaa.",
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1339,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.4,
"text": "-13.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.413,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0938,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.4,
"text": "-9.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1621,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Al Minaa",
"sort_key": 1776.55,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -11.1%",
"alert_team": "Naft Maysan",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.33,
"hero_label": "Al Minaa",
"market_prob_pct": 41.3,
"market_team": "Al Minaa",
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "Al Minaa",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Naft Maysan, but the model still strongly favours Al Minaa."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Naft Maysan, but the model still strongly favours Al Minaa."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1472,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1472,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Al Minaa at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Al Minaa as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Naft Maysan, but the model still strongly favours Al Minaa.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Al Minaa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Naft Maysan, but the model still strongly favours Al Minaa.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Naft Maysan, but the model still strongly favours Al Minaa.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1339,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.413,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.46511627906976744,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1621,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.3,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 74,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.33,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.33,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.22,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.38,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.38 \u00b7 Away xG 1.22 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -11.1%",
"steam_team": "Naft Maysan",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Naft Maysan, but the model still strongly favours Al Minaa.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Naft Maysan, but the model still strongly favours Al Minaa."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Naft Maysan, but the model still strongly favours Al Minaa."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1472,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1472,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Al Minaa at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Al Minaa as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Naft Maysan, but the model still strongly favours Al Minaa.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Al Minaa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Naft Maysan, but the model still strongly favours Al Minaa.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Naft Maysan, but the model still strongly favours Al Minaa.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1339,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.413,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.46511627906976744,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1621,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Naft Maysan, but the model still strongly favours Al Minaa.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Al Minaa 1.38 xG vs Naft Maysan 1.22 \u2192 Al Minaa 39.0%",
"Market: Al Minaa ~41.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Naft Maysan \u2193 -11.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Al Minaa, but sharp money moved toward Naft Maysan.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.33,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "Al Minaa",
"market_prob": 41.3,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.24,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.3,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.08,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "Naft Maysan",
"market_prob": 29.4,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.02,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.18,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.02,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.82,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.96,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.44,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.96,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.56,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -2.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Al Minaa",
"market_prob_pct": 41.3,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Naft Maysan"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.33,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Al Minaa",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 41.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-2.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -2.3,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-2.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -2.3,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 74,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Naft Maysan, but the model still strongly favours Al Minaa. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Al Minaa 1.38 xG vs Naft Maysan 1.22 \u2192 Al Minaa 39.0%",
"Market: Al Minaa ~41.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Naft Maysan \u2193 -11.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Al Minaa, but sharp money moved toward Naft Maysan.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.33,
"hero_label": "Al Minaa",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Naft Maysan odds shortened \u2193 -11.1%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Naft Maysan, with odds shortening by 11.1%. Confirmation remains limited (3/10 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Naft Maysan \u2014 odds shortened by 11.1%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Naft Maysan, with odds shortening by 11.1%. Confirmation remains limited (3/10 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Buying interest on Naft Maysan \u2014 odds shortened by 11.1%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Naft Maysan has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 11.1%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (3/10), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.33,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Al Minaa",
"largest_gap_pp": -2.3,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.3,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.33,
"edge_pp": -2.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Al Minaa",
"market_prob_pct": 41.3,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.24,
"edge_pp": 0.24,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.3,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.08,
"edge_pp": 2.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Naft Maysan",
"market_prob_pct": 29.4,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Naft Maysan \u2014 odds shortened by 11.1%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Al Minaa (41.3%).",
"Naft Maysan has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -11.1%, 3/10).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Al Minaa, Market \u2192 Al Minaa, Recent sharp money \u2192 Naft Maysan.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.51,
"closing_odds": 2.15,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.51,
"entry_odds": 2.15,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.8
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "3/10",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -11.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 24h 8m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Naft Maysan (11.1%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.60",
"3.31",
"3.02"
],
"display": "3.60 \u2192 2.90 \u2192 3.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 24h 8m",
"pick_team": "Naft Maysan",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.6,
3.02,
3.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,12.4",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.02"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.6,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Naft Maysan",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -11.1%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"summary": "Market moved toward Naft Maysan while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Naft Maysan",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/10",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"move_display": "\u2193 -11.1%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"pick_team": "Naft Maysan",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_team_name": "Naft Maysan",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "naft-maysan",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Naft Maysan",
"away_team_id": 11074,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/11074.webp",
"away_team_name": "Naft Maysan",
"away_team_public_id": "3qoQZ5Rr6dhCF9",
"away_team_slug": "naft-maysan",
"country_code": "IQ",
"country_display_name": "Iraq",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/iq.svg",
"country_id": 76,
"country_name": "Iraq",
"fixture_id": 1627962,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Iraq",
"home_team_display_name": "Al Minaa",
"home_team_id": 11065,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/11065.webp",
"home_team_name": "Al Minaa",
"home_team_public_id": "1WHF1eAoTprzK6",
"home_team_slug": "al-minaa-basra",
"ht.home_team_slug": "al-minaa-basra",
"league_country": "Iraq",
"league_country_display": "Iraq",
"league_display_name": "Iraqi Premier League",
"league_id": 542,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/542.webp",
"league_name": "Iraqi Premier League",
"league_public_id": "1O0WsRJVmIJTjI",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-09 18:00:00",
"public_id": "35oVzSQBQGNME1",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2906,
"best_odd": 3.02,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0061,
"ev": -0.0938,
"implied_prob": 0.294,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.294,
"draw": 0.293,
"home": 0.413
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.3001
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2989,
"best_odd": 3.03,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0007,
"ev": -0.11,
"implied_prob": 0.293,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.294,
"draw": 0.293,
"home": 0.413
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.2937
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4343,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0101,
"ev": -0.1339,
"implied_prob": 0.413,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.294,
"draw": 0.293,
"home": 0.413
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.4028
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.02,
"edge": -0.0162,
"ev": -0.0489,
"implied_prob": 0.3311,
"model_prob": 0.3149
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.03,
"edge": -0.0346,
"ev": -0.1049,
"implied_prob": 0.33,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": -0.0754,
"ev": -0.1622,
"implied_prob": 0.4651,
"model_prob": 0.3897
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2129,
"alpha_yes": 0.2342,
"best_no_odd": 1.92,
"best_yes_odd": 1.91,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0396,
"edge_yes": 0.0396,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1245,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1043,
"ev_yes": 0.039,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0753,
"implied_no": 0.4956,
"implied_yes": 0.5044,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2129,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0076,
"ev": -0.1043,
"implied_prob": 0.4918,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4841
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2342,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": 0.0084,
"ev": -0.0753,
"implied_prob": 0.5082,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5166
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4841,
"p_final_yes": 0.5166,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2258,
"alpha_under": 0.2484,
"best_over_odd": 2.38,
"best_under_odd": 1.71,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.02,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.67,
"edge_over": 0.0402,
"edge_under": -0.0402,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1472,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0724,
"ev_under": -0.1142,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.098,
"implied_over": 0.4418,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4526,
"implied_under": 0.5582,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5474,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2258,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0066,
"ev": -0.0724,
"implied_prob": 0.4526,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4592
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2484,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0073,
"ev": -0.098,
"implied_prob": 0.5474,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5401
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4592,
"p_final_under": 0.5401,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1472,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1472,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1472,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Naft Maysan, but the model still strongly favours Al Minaa."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1472,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1472,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Al Minaa at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Al Minaa as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Naft Maysan, but the model still strongly favours Al Minaa.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Al Minaa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Naft Maysan, but the model still strongly favours Al Minaa.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Naft Maysan, but the model still strongly favours Al Minaa.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1339,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.413,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.46511627906976744,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1621,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0101,
"ev": -0.1339,
"implied_prob": 0.413,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Al Minaa"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2342,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"edge": 0.0084,
"market_prob": 0.5082,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2129,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0076,
"ev": -0.1043,
"implied_prob": 0.4918,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4841
},
"p_final": 0.5166,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0753,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2342,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": 0.0084,
"ev": -0.0753,
"implied_prob": 0.5082,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5166
}
},
"edge": 0.0396,
"ev": 0.039,
"implied_prob": 0.5044,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2258,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0066,
"market_prob": 0.4526,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2258,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0066,
"ev": -0.0724,
"implied_prob": 0.4526,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4592
},
"p_final": 0.4592,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0724,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2484,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0073,
"ev": -0.098,
"implied_prob": 0.5474,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5401
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0402,
"ev": 0.1472,
"implied_prob": 0.4418,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1627962,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1472,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3149,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3897
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Naft Maysan",
"home": "Al Minaa"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.049665,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1472,
"implied_prob": 0.4418,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1339,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.413,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.46511627906976744,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1621,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1627962,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-09T17:59:07.211265+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Al Minaa & Naft Maysan!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Iraqi Premier League — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Karma | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Al Zawra'a | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 3 | Erbil | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | Newroz | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Al Shorta | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Naft | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 7 | Al-Jolan SC | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Duhok | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Diyala | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Al Minaa | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 11 | Zakho | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 13 | Ghaz Al Shamal | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 14 | Mosul | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 15 | Al Karkh | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 16 | Al Kahrabaa | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 17 | Al Talaba | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 18 | Naft Maysan | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 19 | Gharraf | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 20 | Karbala | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Zawra'a | 8 | 15 | 3 | +12 | 18 |
| 2 | Al-Karma | 8 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 20 |
| 3 | Newroz | 8 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 15 |
| 4 | Diyala | 8 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 9 |
| 5 | Erbil | 8 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 17 |
| 6 | Duhok | 8 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 8 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | Al Karkh | 8 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 7 |
| 9 | Al Shorta | 8 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 15 |
| 10 | Naft | 8 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 15 |
| 11 | Mosul | 8 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Al Talaba | 8 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 7 |
| 13 | Al-Jolan SC | 8 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 14 | Al Minaa | 8 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 | Zakho | 8 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 9 |
| 16 | Al Kahrabaa | 8 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | Naft Maysan | 8 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 |
| 18 | Karbala | 8 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 |
| 19 | Ghaz Al Shamal | 8 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 8 |
| 20 | Gharraf | 8 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 5 |
