Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 GOES GOES ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.35
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
GOES win · GOES 2–1 UNA
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "830038db9eef6fea40f74ac7c5f4dbb3651d9253e15b37807d451006daaa2a82",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"away_win_prob": 0.3424,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.92,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.77,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"home_win_prob": 0.3611,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or UNA",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "UNA"
},
"away_xg": 1.28,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "GOES",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0039,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3571,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.2,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 36.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.49
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.49,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "GOES Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.8,
"market_odds": 2.49,
"model_odds": 2.77,
"overround": 12.5,
"prob_edge": -4.1,
"value_pct": -10.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 73.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.28,
"home_expected": 1.32,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "GOES or Draw",
"prob": 65.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "GOES or UNA",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or UNA",
"prob": 63.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "GOES or UNA",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "GOES"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.6,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.2,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -10.1,
"implied_prob": 40.2,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "GOES Win",
"model_prob": 36.1,
"odds": 2.49
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "UNA",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 37.83,
"draw": 26.46,
"home": 35.71
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 12:31:23",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 12:05:16",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "GOES",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.71,
"gap_pp": 0.39,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.46,
"gap_pp": 3.21,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.83,
"gap_pp": -3.59,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 63.36,
"gap_pp": -15.16,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.64,
"gap_pp": 15.16,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.49,
"early": 2.49,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.71,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.71,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.36,
"early": 3.36,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.46,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.46,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.35,
"early": 2.35,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.83,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.83,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.44,
"early": 1.44,
"implied_closing_pct": 63.36,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 63.36,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.49,
"early": 2.49,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.64,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.64,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 15.2,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.7,
"ev": 0.0625,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.5,
"market_prob": 0.1176,
"market_prob_pct": 11.8,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1377,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0216,
"edge_pp": 2.2,
"market_prob": 0.3612,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1893,
"best_odd": 1.425,
"edge": -0.0297,
"ev": -0.132,
"implied_prob": 0.6388,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6091
},
"p_final": 0.3828,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3054,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0353,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1377,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0216,
"ev": -0.0353,
"implied_prob": 0.3612,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3828
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3059,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -30.6,
"text": "-30.6%"
},
"ev_under": 0.3572,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 35.7,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3572,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10471.48,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.7,
"edge": 0.0173,
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"market_prob": 0.3382,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"best_odd": 2.7,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.04,
"implied_prob": 0.3382,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3556
},
"p_final": 0.3556,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2285,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.04,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"best_odd": 1.38,
"edge": -0.0238,
"ev": -0.1197,
"implied_prob": 0.6618,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6379
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2467,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 24.7,
"text": "+24.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.237,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -23.7,
"text": "-23.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2467,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10222.03,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced GOES, but the model still strongly favours GOES.",
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1066,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.7,
"text": "-10.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3571,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0802,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.0,
"text": "-8.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1014,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "GOES",
"sort_key": 1779.95,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.59,
"hero_label": "UNA",
"market_prob_pct": 35.7,
"market_team": "UNA",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "GOES",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.6,
"summary": "The market has repriced GOES, but the model still strongly favours GOES."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.6,
"summary": "The market has repriced GOES, but the model still strongly favours GOES."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3572,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates GOES at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies GOES as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced GOES, but the model still strongly favours GOES.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "GOES",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +35.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced GOES, but the model still strongly favours GOES.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced GOES, but the model still strongly favours GOES.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1066,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3571,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4016064257028112,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1014,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8333333333333334,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.3,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.59,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.59,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "GOES",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced GOES, but the model still strongly favours GOES.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.6,
"summary": "The market has repriced GOES, but the model still strongly favours GOES."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.6,
"summary": "The market has repriced GOES, but the model still strongly favours GOES."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3572,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates GOES at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies GOES as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced GOES, but the model still strongly favours GOES.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "GOES",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +35.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced GOES, but the model still strongly favours GOES.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced GOES, but the model still strongly favours GOES.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1066,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3571,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4016064257028112,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1014,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced GOES, but the model still strongly favours GOES.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: GOES 1.32 xG vs UNA 1.28 \u2192 GOES 36.1%",
"Market: UNA ~35.7% implied",
"Market Steam: GOES +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean GOES with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 0.4,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "GOES",
"market_prob": 35.71,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.19,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.46,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.59,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "UNA",
"market_prob": 37.83,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.84,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 64.04,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.84,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 35.96,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.6,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 66.1,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.6,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 33.9,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -3.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "UNA",
"market_prob_pct": 37.83,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "GOES"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.59,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "GOES",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+0.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 0.4,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+0.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 0.4,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has repriced GOES, but the model still strongly favours GOES. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: GOES 1.32 xG vs UNA 1.28 \u2192 GOES 36.1%",
"Market: UNA ~35.7% implied",
"Market Steam: GOES +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean GOES with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.59,
"hero_label": "UNA",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.59,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "UNA",
"largest_gap_pp": -3.6,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.6,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 0.4,
"edge_pp": 0.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "GOES",
"market_prob_pct": 35.71,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.19,
"edge_pp": 3.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.46,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.59,
"edge_pp": -3.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "UNA",
"market_prob_pct": 37.83,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers UNA (35.7%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 GOES, Market \u2192 UNA, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 42.55,
"closing_odds": 2.35,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 42.55,
"entry_odds": 2.35,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/6",
"current_odds": 2.35,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.35,
"pick_team": "GOES",
"steam_score": 25,
"steam_team_name": "GOES",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "una",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "UNA",
"away_team_id": 1284,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1284.webp",
"away_team_name": "UNA",
"away_team_public_id": "26xBtrJjOUi2pm",
"away_team_slug": "una",
"country_code": "NL",
"country_display_name": "Netherlands",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/nl.svg",
"country_id": 115,
"country_name": "Netherlands",
"fixture_id": 1618344,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Netherlands",
"home_team_display_name": "GOES",
"home_team_id": 3892,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3892.webp",
"home_team_name": "GOES",
"home_team_public_id": "3UYFtSBEnnr2Er",
"home_team_slug": "goes",
"ht.home_team_slug": "goes",
"league_country": "Netherlands",
"league_country_display": "Netherlands",
"league_display_name": "Derde Divisie - S\u00e1bado - Saturday",
"league_id": 92,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/92.webp",
"league_name": "Derde Divisie - S\u00e1bado - Saturday",
"league_name_canonical": "Derde Divisie - S\u00e1bado",
"league_public_id": "1WNFoLf4VlI9Sg",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 12:30:00",
"public_id": "61YvTjZFrJvq5r",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4257,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0153,
"ev": -0.1469,
"implied_prob": 0.3783,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3783,
"draw": 0.2646,
"home": 0.3571
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.363
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2856,
"best_odd": 3.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": -0.0802,
"implied_prob": 0.2646,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3783,
"draw": 0.2646,
"home": 0.3571
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2738
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4474,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0017,
"ev": -0.1066,
"implied_prob": 0.3571,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3783,
"draw": 0.2646,
"home": 0.3571
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3588
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": -0.0831,
"ev": -0.1954,
"implied_prob": 0.4255,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.36,
"edge": -0.0009,
"ev": -0.0032,
"implied_prob": 0.2976,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": -0.0407,
"ev": -0.1013,
"implied_prob": 0.4016,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1485,
"alpha_yes": 0.2042,
"best_no_odd": 2.74,
"best_yes_odd": 1.4,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.116,
"edge_yes": -0.116,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2467,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.04,
"ev_yes": -0.237,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1197,
"implied_no": 0.339,
"implied_yes": 0.661,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"best_odd": 2.7,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.04,
"implied_prob": 0.3382,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3556
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"best_odd": 1.38,
"edge": -0.0238,
"ev": -0.1197,
"implied_prob": 0.6618,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6379
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.3556,
"p_final_yes": 0.6379,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1893,
"alpha_under": 0.1377,
"best_over_odd": 1.44,
"best_under_odd": 2.62,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.425,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.52,
"edge_over": -0.1584,
"edge_under": 0.1584,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3059,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.132,
"ev_under": 0.3572,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0353,
"implied_over": 0.6404,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6388,
"implied_under": 0.3596,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3612,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1893,
"best_odd": 1.425,
"edge": -0.0297,
"ev": -0.132,
"implied_prob": 0.6388,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6091
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1377,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0216,
"ev": -0.0353,
"implied_prob": 0.3612,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3828
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6091,
"p_final_under": 0.3828,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3572,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3572,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.6,
"summary": "The market has repriced GOES, but the model still strongly favours GOES."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3572,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates GOES at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies GOES as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced GOES, but the model still strongly favours GOES.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "GOES",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +35.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced GOES, but the model still strongly favours GOES.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced GOES, but the model still strongly favours GOES.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1066,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3571,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4016064257028112,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1014,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0017,
"ev": -0.1066,
"implied_prob": 0.3571,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "GOES"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.7,
"edge": 0.0173,
"market_prob": 0.3382,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"best_odd": 2.7,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.04,
"implied_prob": 0.3382,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3556
},
"p_final": 0.3556,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.04,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"best_odd": 1.38,
"edge": -0.0238,
"ev": -0.1197,
"implied_prob": 0.6618,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6379
}
},
"edge": 0.116,
"ev": 0.2467,
"implied_prob": 0.339,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1377,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0216,
"market_prob": 0.3612,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1893,
"best_odd": 1.425,
"edge": -0.0297,
"ev": -0.132,
"implied_prob": 0.6388,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6091
},
"p_final": 0.3828,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0353,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1377,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0216,
"ev": -0.0353,
"implied_prob": 0.3612,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3828
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1584,
"ev": 0.3572,
"implied_prob": 0.3596,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1618344,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3572,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2467,
"implied_prob": 0.339,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2467,
"implied_prob": 0.339,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "UNA",
"home": "GOES"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.129521,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3572,
"implied_prob": 0.3596,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1066,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3571,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4016064257028112,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1014,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1618344,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T12:31:25.280061+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para GOES & UNA!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Derde Divisie - Sábado — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ACV | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
| 1 | Noordwijk | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 2 | SC Genemuiden | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | FC Lisse | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Harkemase Boys | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| 3 | Rijnvogels | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 4 | Excelsior '31 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Excelsior Maassluis | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | VV Scherpenzeel | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | GOES | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Sportlust '46 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 6 | UDI '19 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 7 | TEC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Zwaluwen | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Sparta Nijkerk | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Dongen | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | Purmersteijn | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Poortugaal | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Hoogeveen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | Roosendaal | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 11 | ADO '20 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | Blauw Geel | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | DVS 33 Ermelo | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 12 | Gemert | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 13 | Dovo | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 13 | VVSB | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 14 | Hercules | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 14 | UNA | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 15 | Staphorst | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 | Groene Ster | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 16 | Eemdijk | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
| 16 | TOGB | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 17 | Hollandia | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| 17 | Achilles Veen | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
| 18 | SVZW | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| 18 | EVV | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEC | 7 | 24 | 16 | +8 | 13 |
| 2 | Sparta Nijkerk | 7 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 11 |
| 3 | ACV | 7 | 19 | 4 | +15 | 19 |
| 4 | Excelsior '31 | 7 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 16 |
| 5 | SC Genemuiden | 7 | 16 | 4 | +12 | 18 |
| 6 | Rijnvogels | 6 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 14 |
| 7 | Sportlust '46 | 7 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 15 |
| 8 | GOES | 7 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 14 |
| 9 | Dongen | 6 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Noordwijk | 7 | 13 | 2 | +11 | 16 |
| 11 | Excelsior Maassluis | 7 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 14 |
| 12 | Harkemase Boys | 7 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 17 |
| 13 | Hollandia | 6 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 1 |
| 14 | FC Lisse | 7 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 16 |
| 15 | Hoogeveen | 6 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 7 |
| 16 | VV Scherpenzeel | 7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 16 |
| 17 | Purmersteijn | 7 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 11 |
| 18 | ADO '20 | 6 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 7 |
| 19 | UDI '19 | 6 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 11 |
| 20 | Blauw Geel | 7 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 8 |
| 21 | Gemert | 6 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 22 | Roosendaal | 7 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 9 |
| 23 | Groene Ster | 6 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 6 |
| 24 | DVS 33 Ermelo | 7 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 5 |
| 25 | Staphorst | 7 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 3 |
| 26 | UNA | 6 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 6 |
| 27 | TOGB | 7 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 5 |
| 28 | SVZW | 7 | 9 | 24 | -15 | 1 |
| 29 | Eemdijk | 7 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 3 |
| 30 | Poortugaal | 7 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 9 |
| 31 | VVSB | 7 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 7 |
| 32 | Dovo | 7 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 5 |
| 33 | EVV | 7 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 2 |
| 34 | Hercules | 6 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 3 |
| 35 | Achilles Veen | 7 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 3 |
| 36 | Zwaluwen | 7 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 10 |
