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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Bala Azul Alcantarilla ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.85
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Alcantarilla win · Bala Azul 0–1 Alcantarilla
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.17,
"away_win_prob": 0.2925,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.459,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2936,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.42,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.41,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.42,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.43,
"home_win_prob": 0.414,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Bala Azul or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Bala Azul"
},
"away_xg": 1.17,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Bala Azul",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0745,
"edge_gap": 0.1201,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4882,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 29.3,
"draw": 29.4,
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.85
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.85,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Bala Azul Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.05,
"market_odds": 1.85,
"model_odds": 2.42,
"overround": 10.7,
"prob_edge": -12.7,
"value_pct": -23.6,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 69.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 3,
"home_score_rate": 76.1,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.17,
"home_expected": 1.43,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Bala Azul or Draw",
"prob": 70.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Bala Azul or Alcantarilla",
"prob": 70.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Alcantarilla",
"prob": 58.6
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Bala Azul or Draw",
"pick_prob": 70.8
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 29.2,
"draw_pct": 29.4,
"home_pct": 41.4,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Bala Azul"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 17.7,
"implied_prob": 24.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Alcantarilla Win",
"model_prob": 29.2,
"odds": 4.03
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Alcantarilla",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 22.41,
"draw": 28.76,
"home": 48.82
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 16:59:43",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 16:30:22",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Bala Azul",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 48.82,
"gap_pp": -7.45,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 41.37
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.76,
"gap_pp": 0.59,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.36
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.41,
"gap_pp": 6.86,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 29.27
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.88,
"gap_pp": 6.32,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 58.12,
"gap_pp": -6.32,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.85,
"early": 1.85,
"implied_closing_pct": 48.82,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 48.82,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.14,
"early": 3.14,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.76,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.76,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.03,
"early": 4.03,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.41,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.41,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.22,
"early": 2.22,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.88,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.88,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.6,
"early": 1.6,
"implied_closing_pct": 58.12,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 58.12,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.9,
"ev": -0.132,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.124,
"model_prob_pct": 12.4,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.43,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2002,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0147,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.4674,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2202,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0162,
"ev": -0.1118,
"implied_prob": 0.5326,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.5164
},
"p_final": 0.4821,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0604,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.055,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2002,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.055,
"implied_prob": 0.4674,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.4821
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1968,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.7,
"text": "-19.7%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0658,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.6,
"text": "+6.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0658,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"sort_key": 10209.22,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2053,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"edge": 0.012,
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"market_prob": 0.4236,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2053,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.012,
"ev": -0.0547,
"implied_prob": 0.4236,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4356
},
"p_final": 0.4356,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0459,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0547,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2258,
"best_odd": 1.595,
"edge": -0.0132,
"ev": -0.1017,
"implied_prob": 0.5764,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5632
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.07,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.0,
"text": "+7.0%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1453,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.5,
"text": "-14.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.07,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10063.0,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1703,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.0,
"text": "-17.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4882,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0472,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.7,
"text": "-4.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2347,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.5%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Bala Azul",
"sort_key": 1788.2,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.42,
"hero_label": "Bala Azul",
"market_prob_pct": 48.8,
"market_team": "Bala Azul",
"model_prob_pct": 41.4,
"model_team": "Bala Azul",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bala Azul)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bala Azul)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.07,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1797,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bala Azul at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bala Azul as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bala Azul",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Bala Azul \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.18 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +18% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1616402 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.18 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bala Azul).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10",
"Outlier price +18% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1703,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4882,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5405405405405405,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2347,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 81,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.42,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.42,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.17,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.43,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.43,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.43 \u00b7 Away xG 1.17 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +6%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Bala Azul",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bala Azul).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bala Azul)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bala Azul)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.07,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1797,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bala Azul at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bala Azul as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bala Azul",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Bala Azul \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.18 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +18% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1616402 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.18 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bala Azul).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10",
"Outlier price +18% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1703,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4882,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5405405405405405,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2347,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bala Azul 1.43 xG vs Alcantarilla 1.17 \u2192 Bala Azul 41.4%",
"Market: Bala Azul ~48.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Bala Azul +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Bala Azul with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.42,
"fair_prob": 41.4,
"label": "Bala Azul",
"market_prob": 48.82,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.6,
"fair_prob": 29.36,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.76,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.84,
"fair_prob": 29.25,
"label": "Alcantarilla",
"market_prob": 22.41,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.62,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.58,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.62,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.42,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.14,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 46.96,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.14,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 53.04,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.42,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.4,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Bala Azul",
"market_prob_pct": 48.82,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Bala Azul"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Bala Azul\u0027s win probability at 48.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 41.4%, a difference of 7.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.42,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Bala Azul",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 48.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.4,
"model_prob_pct": 41.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 81,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Bala Azul \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bala Azul 1.43 xG vs Alcantarilla 1.17 \u2192 Bala Azul 41.4%",
"Market: Bala Azul ~48.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Bala Azul +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Bala Azul with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.42,
"hero_label": "Bala Azul",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Bala Azul. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "The market shows a modest preference for Bala Azul relative to the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Bala Azul. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Bala Azul above the current fair estimate.",
"Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.42,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.0 pp (at 41.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 12.0,
"max_prob_pct": 41.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Bala Azul",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices Bala Azul higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.4,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.42,
"edge_pp": -7.42,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.4,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Bala Azul",
"market_prob_pct": 48.82,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.6,
"edge_pp": 0.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.36,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.76,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.84,
"edge_pp": 6.84,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.25,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Alcantarilla",
"market_prob_pct": 22.41,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market shows a modest preference for Bala Azul relative to the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Bala Azul (48.8%).",
"Bala Azul \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 54.05,
"closing_odds": 1.85,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.05,
"entry_odds": 1.85,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 1.8,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.8,
"pick_team": "Bala Azul",
"steam_score": 22,
"steam_team_name": "Bala Azul",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "alcantarilla",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Alcantarilla",
"away_team_id": 20276,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/20276.webp",
"away_team_name": "Alcantarilla",
"away_team_public_id": "3OkW5Ujbviip9v",
"away_team_slug": "alcantarilla",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1616402,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Bala Azul",
"home_team_id": 17607,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/17607.webp",
"home_team_name": "Bala Azul",
"home_team_public_id": "1a4gDoWtOrXA5A",
"home_team_slug": "bala-azul",
"ht.home_team_slug": "bala-azul",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Tercera Federaci\u00f3n - Grupo 13",
"league_id": 451,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/451.webp",
"league_name": "Tercera Federaci\u00f3n - Grupo 13",
"league_public_id": "3DzaAINAOwvcvI",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 17:00:00",
"public_id": "43IIzM39OQj8Vi",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1794,
"best_odd": 4.03,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0123,
"ev": -0.0472,
"implied_prob": 0.2241,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2241,
"draw": 0.2876,
"home": 0.4882
},
"model_prob": 0.2927,
"p_final": 0.2364
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2973,
"best_odd": 3.14,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0018,
"ev": -0.0912,
"implied_prob": 0.2876,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2241,
"draw": 0.2876,
"home": 0.4882
},
"model_prob": 0.2936,
"p_final": 0.2894
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5329,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0397,
"ev": -0.1703,
"implied_prob": 0.4882,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2241,
"draw": 0.2876,
"home": 0.4882
},
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"p_final": 0.4485
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.03,
"edge": 0.0446,
"ev": 0.1797,
"implied_prob": 0.2481,
"model_prob": 0.2927
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.14,
"edge": -0.0249,
"ev": -0.0781,
"implied_prob": 0.3185,
"model_prob": 0.2936
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.1269,
"ev": -0.2347,
"implied_prob": 0.5405,
"model_prob": 0.4137
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2202,
"alpha_yes": 0.2002,
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 1.97,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0714,
"edge_yes": 0.0714,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1968,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1118,
"ev_yes": 0.0658,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.055,
"implied_no": 0.5304,
"implied_yes": 0.4696,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2202,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0162,
"ev": -0.1118,
"implied_prob": 0.5326,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.5164
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2002,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.055,
"implied_prob": 0.4674,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.4821
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5164,
"p_final_yes": 0.4821,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2053,
"alpha_under": 0.2258,
"best_over_odd": 2.22,
"best_under_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.17,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.595,
"edge_over": 0.0562,
"edge_under": -0.0562,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.07,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0547,
"ev_under": -0.1453,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1017,
"implied_over": 0.4258,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4236,
"implied_under": 0.5742,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5764,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2053,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.012,
"ev": -0.0547,
"implied_prob": 0.4236,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4356
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2258,
"best_odd": 1.595,
"edge": -0.0132,
"ev": -0.1017,
"implied_prob": 0.5764,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5632
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4356,
"p_final_under": 0.5632,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.07,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1797,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.07,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.1
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bala Azul)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.07,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1797,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bala Azul at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bala Azul as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bala Azul",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Bala Azul \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.18 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +18% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1616402 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.18 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bala Azul).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10",
"Outlier price +18% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1703,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4882,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5405405405405405,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2347,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2936,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4137,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.26
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0397,
"ev": -0.1703,
"implied_prob": 0.4882,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Bala Azul"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2002,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0147,
"market_prob": 0.4674,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2202,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0162,
"ev": -0.1118,
"implied_prob": 0.5326,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.5164
},
"p_final": 0.4821,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.055,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2002,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.055,
"implied_prob": 0.4674,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.4821
}
},
"edge": 0.0714,
"ev": 0.0658,
"implied_prob": 0.4696,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2053,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"edge": 0.012,
"market_prob": 0.4236,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2053,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.012,
"ev": -0.0547,
"implied_prob": 0.4236,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4356
},
"p_final": 0.4356,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0547,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2258,
"best_odd": 1.595,
"edge": -0.0132,
"ev": -0.1017,
"implied_prob": 0.5764,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5632
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0562,
"ev": 0.07,
"implied_prob": 0.4258,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1616402,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.07,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2927,
"draw": 0.2936,
"home": 0.4137
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Alcantarilla",
"home": "Bala Azul"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.035598,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0658,
"implied_prob": 0.4696,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1703,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4882,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5405405405405405,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2347,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1616402,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T16:59:45.719793+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Tercera Federación - Grupo 13 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santomera | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | San Javier | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Bullas Deportivo | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 4 | Alcantarilla | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 5 | Atlético Pulpileño | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Los Garres | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Bala Azul | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | Santa Cruz | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | UCAM Murcia II | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Unión Molinense | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Olímpico Totana | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Águilas B | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | SFC Minerva | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 14 | Cotillas CD | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 15 | Cartagena B | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 16 | Mazarrón FC | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | Balsicas Atlético | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | Algar | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UCAM Murcia II | 3 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 4 |
| 2 | Santa Cruz | 4 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| 3 | Santomera | 3 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 4 | San Javier | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | Unión Molinense | 3 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 |
| 6 | Bullas Deportivo | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 5 |
| 7 | Los Garres | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 8 | Olímpico Totana | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Águilas B | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Cotillas CD | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Cartagena B | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2 |
| 12 | Alcantarilla | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 | Bala Azul | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 |
| 14 | Mazarrón FC | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 1 |
| 15 | Atlético Pulpileño | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 5 |
| 16 | SFC Minerva | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 | Balsicas Atlético | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 0 |
| 18 | Algar | 3 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 0 |
