Sep 30, 2026 - 18:00
2
1.41
0
1.19
xG Accuracy: 61%
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Rosario Central Reserves Rosario Central Reserves ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 2-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Rosario Central Reserves win · Rosario Central Reserves 2–0 Unión de Santa Fe Reserves
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "620c4ebc8734c15f89143cd5956a243cad660cc219e641a4d64005b538aa41ac",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.19,
"away_win_prob": 0.3014,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.458,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2944,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.32,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.4,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.47,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.41,
"home_win_prob": 0.4042,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Uni\u00f3n de Santa Fe Reserves",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Uni\u00f3n de Santa Fe Reserves"
},
"away_xg": 1.19,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0331,
"edge_gap": 0.1036,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4378,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 30.1,
"draw": 29.4,
"home": 40.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.09
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.09,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Rosario Central Reserves Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.28,
"market_odds": 2.09,
"model_odds": 2.47,
"overround": 9.3,
"prob_edge": -7.4,
"value_pct": -15.4,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 10,
"away_failed_to_score": 8,
"away_played": 27,
"away_score_rate": 69.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 9,
"home_failed_to_score": 6,
"home_played": 27,
"home_score_rate": 75.6,
"no_prob": 45.8,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.19,
"home_expected": 1.41,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Rosario Central Reserves or Draw",
"prob": 69.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Rosario Central Reserves or Uni\u00f3n de Santa Fe Reserves",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Uni\u00f3n de Santa Fe Reserves",
"prob": 59.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Rosario Central Reserves or Uni\u00f3n de Santa Fe Reserves",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 30.1,
"draw_pct": 29.4,
"home_pct": 40.4,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Rosario Central Reserves"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 3.5,
"implied_prob": 29.1,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Uni\u00f3n de Santa Fe Reserves Win",
"model_prob": 30.1,
"odds": 3.44
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Uni\u00f3n de Santa Fe Reserves",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 26.6,
"draw": 29.61,
"home": 43.78
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-30 18:01:05",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-30 17:31:32",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.78,
"gap_pp": -3.31,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 40.48
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.61,
"gap_pp": -0.21,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.41
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.6,
"gap_pp": 3.51,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 30.12
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.45,
"gap_pp": 5.75,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 57.55,
"gap_pp": -5.75,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.09,
"early": 2.09,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.78,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.78,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.09,
"early": 3.09,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.61,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.61,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.44,
"early": 3.44,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.6,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.6,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.21,
"early": 2.21,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.45,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 42.45,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.63,
"early": 1.63,
"implied_closing_pct": 57.55,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 57.55,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.9,
"ev": -0.0663,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.47,
"market_prob": 0.1339,
"market_prob_pct": 13.4,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.4
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.41,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2094,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0097,
"edge_pp": 1.0,
"market_prob": 0.4358,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2094,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0097,
"ev": -0.06,
"implied_prob": 0.4358,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4455
},
"p_final": 0.4455,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.017,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.06,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2304,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0106,
"ev": -0.0977,
"implied_prob": 0.5642,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5535
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0652,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.5,
"text": "+6.5%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1142,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.4,
"text": "-11.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0652,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10208.68,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2083,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0103,
"edge_pp": 1.0,
"market_prob": 0.4925,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.542,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2291,
"best_odd": 1.795,
"edge": -0.0114,
"ev": -0.1093,
"implied_prob": 0.5075,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.4962
},
"p_final": 0.5028,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0027,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0699,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2083,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0699,
"implied_prob": 0.4925,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.5028
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1664,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.6,
"text": "-16.6%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0027,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.3,
"text": "+0.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0027,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.8,
"sort_key": 5202.16,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.2
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.09,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1145,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.5,
"text": "-11.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4378,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0506,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.1,
"text": "-5.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.154,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.4%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"sort_key": 1787.35,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.54,
"hero_label": "Uni\u00f3n de Santa Fe Reserves",
"market_prob_pct": 43.8,
"market_team": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"model_team": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rosario Central Reserves)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rosario Central Reserves)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0652,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0652,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rosario Central Reserves at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rosario Central Reserves as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rosario Central Reserves).",
"Decision strength: 7.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1145,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.09,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4378,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47846889952153115,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.154,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "8/8",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 85,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.54,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.54,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.19,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.41,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.41,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.41 \u00b7 Away xG 1.19 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rosario Central Reserves).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rosario Central Reserves)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rosario Central Reserves)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0652,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0652,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rosario Central Reserves at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rosario Central Reserves as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rosario Central Reserves).",
"Decision strength: 7.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1145,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.09,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4378,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47846889952153115,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.154,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Rosario Central Reserves 1.41 xG vs Uni\u00f3n de Santa Fe Reserves 1.19 \u2192 Rosario Central Reserves 40.4%",
"Market: Rosario Central Reserves ~43.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Rosario Central Reserves +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Rosario Central Reserves with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.36,
"fair_prob": 40.42,
"label": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"market_prob": 43.78,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.17,
"fair_prob": 29.44,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.54,
"fair_prob": 30.14,
"label": "Uni\u00f3n de Santa Fe Reserves",
"market_prob": 26.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.05,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.15,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.05,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.85,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.86,
"fair_prob": 54.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.34,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.86,
"fair_prob": 45.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.66,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 3.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Uni\u00f3n de Santa Fe Reserves",
"market_prob_pct": 26.6,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Rosario Central Reserves"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.54,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 43.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -3.4,
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -3.4,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 85,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Rosario Central Reserves \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Rosario Central Reserves 1.41 xG vs Uni\u00f3n de Santa Fe Reserves 1.19 \u2192 Rosario Central Reserves 40.4%",
"Market: Rosario Central Reserves ~43.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Rosario Central Reserves +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Rosario Central Reserves with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.54,
"hero_label": "Uni\u00f3n de Santa Fe Reserves",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Rosario Central Reserves has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Rosario Central Reserves.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Rosario Central Reserves has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Rosario Central Reserves."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Rosario Central Reserves has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/8) supports the current market view on Rosario Central Reserves."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.54,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.3 pp (at 40.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 10.3,
"max_prob_pct": 40.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Uni\u00f3n de Santa Fe Reserves",
"largest_gap_pp": 3.5,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.5,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.36,
"edge_pp": -3.36,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"market_prob_pct": 43.78,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.17,
"edge_pp": -0.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.44,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.61,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.54,
"edge_pp": 3.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Uni\u00f3n de Santa Fe Reserves",
"market_prob_pct": 26.6,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Rosario Central Reserves.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Rosario Central Reserves (43.8%).",
"Rosario Central Reserves \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 29.07,
"closing_odds": 3.44,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 29.07,
"entry_odds": 3.44,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"current_odds": 2.0,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"pick_team": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "union-santa-fe-res",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Uni\u00f3n de Santa Fe Reserves",
"away_team_id": 18701,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/18701.webp",
"away_team_name": "Uni\u00f3n de Santa Fe Reserves",
"away_team_public_id": "1eRAN5vIKCjXE5",
"away_team_slug": "union-santa-fe-res",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1612067,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"home_team_id": 18696,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/18696.webp",
"home_team_name": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"home_team_public_id": "4Ja6SnIorsNec0",
"home_team_slug": "rosario-central-res",
"ht.home_team_slug": "rosario-central-res",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Liga de Reserva",
"league_id": 906,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/906.webp",
"league_name": "Liga de Reserva",
"league_public_id": "5YMAxRUD9HbQHC",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-30 18:00:00",
"public_id": "2VPW5XwOtWKIYp",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2842,
"best_odd": 3.44,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.01,
"ev": -0.0506,
"implied_prob": 0.266,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.266,
"draw": 0.2961,
"home": 0.4378
},
"model_prob": 0.3012,
"p_final": 0.276
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2991,
"best_odd": 3.09,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0006,
"ev": -0.0868,
"implied_prob": 0.2961,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.266,
"draw": 0.2961,
"home": 0.4378
},
"model_prob": 0.2941,
"p_final": 0.2955
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4277,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0141,
"ev": -0.1145,
"implied_prob": 0.4378,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.266,
"draw": 0.2961,
"home": 0.4378
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"p_final": 0.4237
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.44,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": 0.036,
"implied_prob": 0.2907,
"model_prob": 0.3012
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.09,
"edge": -0.0296,
"ev": -0.0913,
"implied_prob": 0.3236,
"model_prob": 0.2941
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": -0.0737,
"ev": -0.154,
"implied_prob": 0.4785,
"model_prob": 0.4048
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2291,
"alpha_yes": 0.2083,
"best_no_odd": 1.82,
"best_yes_odd": 1.85,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0486,
"edge_yes": 0.0486,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1664,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1093,
"ev_yes": 0.0027,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0699,
"implied_no": 0.5066,
"implied_yes": 0.4934,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2291,
"best_odd": 1.795,
"edge": -0.0114,
"ev": -0.1093,
"implied_prob": 0.5075,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.4962
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2083,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0699,
"implied_prob": 0.4925,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.5028
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4962,
"p_final_yes": 0.5028,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2094,
"alpha_under": 0.2304,
"best_over_odd": 2.21,
"best_under_odd": 1.71,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.11,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.63,
"edge_over": 0.0405,
"edge_under": -0.0405,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0652,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.06,
"ev_under": -0.1142,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0977,
"implied_over": 0.4415,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4358,
"implied_under": 0.5585,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5642,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2094,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0097,
"ev": -0.06,
"implied_prob": 0.4358,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4455
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2304,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0106,
"ev": -0.0977,
"implied_prob": 0.5642,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5535
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4455,
"p_final_under": 0.5535,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0652,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0652,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0652,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.0
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rosario Central Reserves)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0652,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0652,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rosario Central Reserves at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rosario Central Reserves as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rosario Central Reserves).",
"Decision strength: 7.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1145,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.09,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4378,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47846889952153115,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.154,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"draw_prob": 0.2941,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4048,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.22
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.09,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0141,
"ev": -0.1145,
"implied_prob": 0.4378,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Rosario Central Reserves"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2083,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0103,
"market_prob": 0.4925,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.542,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2291,
"best_odd": 1.795,
"edge": -0.0114,
"ev": -0.1093,
"implied_prob": 0.5075,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.4962
},
"p_final": 0.5028,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0699,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2083,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0699,
"implied_prob": 0.4925,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.5028
}
},
"edge": 0.0486,
"ev": 0.0027,
"implied_prob": 0.4934,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2094,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0097,
"market_prob": 0.4358,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2094,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0097,
"ev": -0.06,
"implied_prob": 0.4358,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4455
},
"p_final": 0.4455,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.06,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2304,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0106,
"ev": -0.0977,
"implied_prob": 0.5642,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5535
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0405,
"ev": 0.0652,
"implied_prob": 0.4415,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1612067,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0652,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3012,
"draw": 0.2941,
"home": 0.4048
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Uni\u00f3n de Santa Fe Reserves",
"home": "Rosario Central Reserves"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.021998,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0652,
"implied_prob": 0.4415,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1145,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.09,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4378,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47846889952153115,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.154,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1612067,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-30T18:01:07.621316+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Rosario Central Reserves & Unión de Santa Fe Reserves!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Liga de Reserva — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vélez Sarsfield Reserves | 20 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 47 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors Reserves | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 39 |
| 3 | Racing Club Reserves | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 39 |
| 4 | River Plate Reserves | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 37 |
| 5 | Independiente Reserves | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 36 |
| 6 | Lanús Reserves | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 35 |
| 7 | Newell's Old Boys Reserves | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 34 |
| 8 | Quilmes 2 | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 33 |
| 9 | Defensa y Justicia Reserves | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 32 |
| 10 | Atlético Tucumán Reserves | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 30 |
| 11 | Unión de Santa Fe Reserves | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 29 |
| 12 | Estudiantes La Plata Reserves | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 28 |
| 13 | Argentinos Juniors Reserves | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 28 |
| 14 | Belgrano Córdoba Reserves | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 15 | Talleres de Córdoba Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 16 | Huracán Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 17 | Rosario Central Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 18 | Platense Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 19 | Deportivo Riestra Reserves | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 20 | Independiente Rivadavia Reserves | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
| 21 | Instituto Reserves | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 24 |
| 22 | San Lorenzo Reserves | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24 |
| 23 | Gimnasia La Plata Reserves | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 24 | Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 25 | Banfield Reserves | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 26 | Ferro 2 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 27 | Central Córdoba SdE Reserves | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| 28 | Colón Reserves | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 29 | Aldosivi Reserves | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 30 | Barracas Central Reserves | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 17 |
| 31 | Sarmiento Reserves | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 |
| 32 | Tigre Reserves | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 |
| 33 | Godoy Cruz Reserves | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 15 |
| 34 | Atlético Rafaela 2 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 |
| 35 | Estudiantes Río Cuarto 2 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 11 |
| 36 | San Martín de San Juan Reserves | 18 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 8 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vélez Sarsfield Reserves | 20 | 42 | 13 | +29 | 47 |
| 2 | Lanús Reserves | 19 | 40 | 27 | +13 | 35 |
| 3 | Independiente Reserves | 19 | 38 | 19 | +19 | 36 |
| 4 | Defensa y Justicia Reserves | 18 | 38 | 24 | +14 | 32 |
| 5 | Boca Juniors Reserves | 20 | 36 | 12 | +24 | 39 |
| 6 | Racing Club Reserves | 21 | 33 | 26 | +7 | 39 |
| 7 | River Plate Reserves | 21 | 29 | 20 | +9 | 37 |
| 8 | Newell's Old Boys Reserves | 19 | 27 | 18 | +9 | 34 |
| 9 | Talleres de Córdoba Reserves | 18 | 27 | 21 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 | Belgrano Córdoba Reserves | 18 | 27 | 29 | -2 | 27 |
| 11 | Atlético Tucumán Reserves | 19 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 30 |
| 12 | Estudiantes La Plata Reserves | 18 | 25 | 16 | +9 | 28 |
| 13 | Deportivo Riestra Reserves | 18 | 25 | 18 | +7 | 25 |
| 14 | Rosario Central Reserves | 18 | 25 | 22 | +3 | 26 |
| 15 | Argentinos Juniors Reserves | 18 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 28 |
| 16 | Huracán Reserves | 18 | 23 | 17 | +6 | 26 |
| 17 | Unión de Santa Fe Reserves | 18 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 29 |
| 18 | Independiente Rivadavia Reserves | 18 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 24 |
| 19 | San Lorenzo Reserves | 18 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 24 |
| 20 | Central Córdoba SdE Reserves | 18 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 19 |
| 21 | Atlético Rafaela 2 | 18 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 12 |
| 22 | Quilmes 2 | 18 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 33 |
| 23 | Instituto Reserves | 18 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 24 |
| 24 | Ferro 2 | 18 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 22 |
| 25 | Godoy Cruz Reserves | 18 | 20 | 30 | -10 | 15 |
| 26 | Gimnasia La Plata Reserves | 18 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 23 |
| 27 | Platense Reserves | 18 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 26 |
| 28 | Aldosivi Reserves | 18 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 18 |
| 29 | Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | 18 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 23 |
| 30 | Sarmiento Reserves | 18 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 16 |
| 31 | San Martín de San Juan Reserves | 18 | 16 | 59 | -43 | 8 |
| 32 | Colón Reserves | 18 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 18 |
| 33 | Tigre Reserves | 18 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
| 34 | Banfield Reserves | 18 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 23 |
| 35 | Barracas Central Reserves | 18 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 17 |
| 36 | Estudiantes Río Cuarto 2 | 18 | 9 | 32 | -23 | 11 |
