Sep 24, 2026 - 18:00
3
1.27
0
1.33
xG Accuracy: 43%
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Barracas Central Reserves Deportivo Riestra Reserves ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.89
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Deportivo Riestra Reserves win · Deportivo Riestra Reserves 3–0 Barracas Central Reserves
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "6095a22abbba404d38361464d85ee11fa0426a1acc24dc50d068fbb7c299bef5",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.33,
"away_win_prob": 0.3659,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2964,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.73,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.96,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.27,
"home_win_prob": 0.3377,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Deportivo Riestra Reserves or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Deportivo Riestra Reserves"
},
"away_xg": 1.33,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Barracas Central Reserves",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1308,
"edge_gap": 0.0284,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2352,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 36.6,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 33.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.89
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.89,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Barracas Central Reserves Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 4.25,
"market_odds": 3.89,
"model_odds": 2.73,
"overround": 9.3,
"prob_edge": 10.9,
"value_pct": 42.5,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 7,
"away_failed_to_score": 13,
"away_played": 27,
"away_score_rate": 73.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 10,
"home_failed_to_score": 7,
"home_played": 27,
"home_score_rate": 71.9,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.33,
"home_expected": 1.27,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Deportivo Riestra Reserves or Draw",
"prob": 63.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Deportivo Riestra Reserves or Barracas Central Reserves",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Barracas Central Reserves",
"prob": 66.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Deportivo Riestra Reserves or Barracas Central Reserves",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 36.6,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 33.8,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Barracas Central Reserves"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.7,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 42.5,
"implied_prob": 25.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Barracas Central Reserves Win",
"model_prob": 36.6,
"odds": 3.89
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Barracas Central Reserves",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 23.52,
"draw": 30.5,
"home": 45.98
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-24 17:59:17",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-24 17:29:19",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Deportivo Riestra Reserves",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.98,
"gap_pp": -12.22,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.5,
"gap_pp": -0.85,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.52,
"gap_pp": 13.08,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 36.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.75,
"gap_pp": 11.45,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 63.25,
"gap_pp": -11.45,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.99,
"early": 1.99,
"implied_closing_pct": 45.98,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 45.98,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.0,
"early": 3.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.5,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.5,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.89,
"early": 3.89,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.52,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.52,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.53,
"early": 2.53,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.75,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.75,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.47,
"early": 1.47,
"implied_closing_pct": 63.25,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 63.25,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.8,
"ev": -0.0625,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.27,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1941,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0178,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.4533,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2135,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0196,
"ev": -0.1302,
"implied_prob": 0.5467,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5271
},
"p_final": 0.4711,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0846,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0625,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1941,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.0625,
"implied_prob": 0.4533,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4711
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2037,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.4,
"text": "-20.4%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1445,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.4,
"text": "+14.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1445,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10280.05,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1567,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.305,
"edge": 0.0135,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.3958,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1567,
"best_odd": 2.305,
"edge": 0.0135,
"ev": -0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.3958,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4093
},
"p_final": 0.4093,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.111,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0565,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2155,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0186,
"ev": -0.1157,
"implied_prob": 0.6042,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5856
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1568,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 15.7,
"text": "+15.7%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1712,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.1,
"text": "-17.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1568,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10141.12,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barracas Central Reserves).",
"consensus_odds": 3.89,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0377,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.8,
"text": "+3.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2352,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0377,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.8,
"text": "+3.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4237,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+42.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Barracas Central Reserves",
"sort_key": 10033.93,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -19.2%",
"alert_team": "Barracas Central Reserves",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 13.07,
"hero_label": "Barracas Central Reserves",
"market_prob_pct": 23.5,
"market_team": "Deportivo Riestra Reserves",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Barracas Central Reserves",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 71,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barracas Central Reserves)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barracas Central Reserves)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1568,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4237,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Barracas Central Reserves at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 23.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Barracas Central Reserves as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Barracas Central Reserves",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Barracas Central Reserves \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.61 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +42% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1612043 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.61 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +15.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +15.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+15.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barracas Central Reserves).",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +42% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barracas Central Reserves).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0377,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.89,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2352,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2570694087403599,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4237,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+42.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "4/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 64,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.07,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.07,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.33,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.27,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.27 \u00b7 Away xG 1.33 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -19.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -19.2%",
"steam_team": "Barracas Central Reserves",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barracas Central Reserves).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barracas Central Reserves)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barracas Central Reserves)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1568,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4237,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Barracas Central Reserves at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 23.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Barracas Central Reserves as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Barracas Central Reserves",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Barracas Central Reserves \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.61 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +42% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1612043 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.61 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +15.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +15.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+15.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barracas Central Reserves).",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +42% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barracas Central Reserves).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0377,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.89,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2352,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2570694087403599,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4237,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+42.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barracas Central Reserves).",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Riestra Reserves 1.27 xG vs Barracas Central Reserves 1.33 \u2192 Barracas Central Reserves 36.6%",
"Market: Deportivo Riestra Reserves ~23.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Barracas Central Reserves \u2193 -19.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Barracas Central Reserves with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.21,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Deportivo Riestra Reserves",
"market_prob": 45.98,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.86,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.5,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.07,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Barracas Central Reserves",
"market_prob": 23.52,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.29,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.91,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.29,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.09,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.15,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 45.35,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.15,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.65,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 13.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Barracas Central Reserves",
"market_prob_pct": 23.52,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Barracas Central Reserves"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Barracas Central Reserves\u0027s win probability at 36.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 23.5%, a difference of 13.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 13.07,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Barracas Central Reserves",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 23.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+13.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 13.1,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+13.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 64,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Barracas Central Reserves \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Riestra Reserves 1.27 xG vs Barracas Central Reserves 1.33 \u2192 Barracas Central Reserves 36.6%",
"Market: Deportivo Riestra Reserves ~23.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Barracas Central Reserves \u2193 -19.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Barracas Central Reserves with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 13.07,
"hero_label": "Barracas Central Reserves",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Barracas Central Reserves odds shortened \u2193 -19.2%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Barracas Central Reserves.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Barracas Central Reserves.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Barracas Central Reserves.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Barracas Central Reserves."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Barracas Central Reserves more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Barracas Central Reserves (\u2193 -19.2%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.07,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Barracas Central Reserves",
"largest_gap_pp": 13.1,
"lead": "The model rates Barracas Central Reserves considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.21,
"edge_pp": -12.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Deportivo Riestra Reserves",
"market_prob_pct": 45.98,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.86,
"edge_pp": -0.86,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.5,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 13.07,
"edge_pp": 13.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Barracas Central Reserves",
"market_prob_pct": 23.52,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Barracas Central Reserves.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Deportivo Riestra Reserves (23.5%).",
"However, Barracas Central Reserves has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -19.2%, 4/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Barracas Central Reserves, Market \u2192 Deportivo Riestra Reserves, Recent sharp money \u2192 Barracas Central Reserves.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 25.71,
"closing_odds": 3.89,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 25.71,
"entry_odds": 3.89,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -19.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -19.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.1
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -19.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 19.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Barracas Central Reserves (19.2%, 4/8) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -19.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.33",
"3.92",
"3.50"
],
"display": "4.33 \u2192 3.40 \u2192 3.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 45m",
"pick_team": "Barracas Central Reserves",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.33,
3.89,
3.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,9.5 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.33,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Barracas Central Reserves \u2193 -19.2% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Barracas Central Reserves",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Barracas Central Reserves \u2193 -19.2% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -19.2%",
"open_odds": 4.33,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Barracas Central Reserves",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 71,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"move_display": "\u2193 -19.2%",
"open_odds": 4.33,
"pick_team": "Barracas Central Reserves",
"steam_score": 71,
"steam_team_name": "Barracas Central Reserves",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "barracas-central-res",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Barracas Central Reserves",
"away_team_id": 18680,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/18680.webp",
"away_team_name": "Barracas Central Reserves",
"away_team_public_id": "1X8incK9cufrGT",
"away_team_slug": "barracas-central-res",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1612043,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Deportivo Riestra Reserves",
"home_team_id": 22937,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/22937.webp",
"home_team_name": "Deportivo Riestra Reserves",
"home_team_public_id": "4b5PqH53NTqHbS",
"home_team_slug": "deportivo-riestra-res",
"ht.home_team_slug": "deportivo-riestra-res",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Liga de Reserva",
"league_id": 906,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/906.webp",
"league_name": "Liga de Reserva",
"league_public_id": "5YMAxRUD9HbQHC",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-24 18:00:00",
"public_id": "5puriFtCfOFDsH",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2412,
"best_odd": 3.89,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0315,
"ev": 0.0377,
"implied_prob": 0.2352,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2352,
"draw": 0.305,
"home": 0.4598
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.2667
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2962,
"best_odd": 3.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0025,
"ev": -0.0926,
"implied_prob": 0.305,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2352,
"draw": 0.305,
"home": 0.4598
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3025
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.49,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0599,
"ev": -0.2042,
"implied_prob": 0.4598,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2352,
"draw": 0.305,
"home": 0.4598
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.3999
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.89,
"edge": 0.1089,
"ev": 0.4237,
"implied_prob": 0.2571,
"model_prob": 0.366
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.0,
"edge": -0.0369,
"ev": -0.1106,
"implied_prob": 0.3333,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": -0.165,
"ev": -0.3283,
"implied_prob": 0.5025,
"model_prob": 0.3375
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2135,
"alpha_yes": 0.1941,
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0915,
"edge_yes": 0.0915,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2037,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1302,
"ev_yes": 0.1445,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0625,
"implied_no": 0.5465,
"implied_yes": 0.4535,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2135,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0196,
"ev": -0.1302,
"implied_prob": 0.5467,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5271
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1941,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.0625,
"implied_prob": 0.4533,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4711
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.5271,
"p_final_yes": 0.4711,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1567,
"alpha_under": 0.2155,
"best_over_odd": 2.4,
"best_under_odd": 1.6,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.305,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.51,
"edge_over": 0.0829,
"edge_under": -0.0829,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1568,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0565,
"ev_under": -0.1712,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1157,
"implied_over": 0.3991,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3958,
"implied_under": 0.6009,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6042,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1567,
"best_odd": 2.305,
"edge": 0.0135,
"ev": -0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.3958,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4093
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2155,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0186,
"ev": -0.1157,
"implied_prob": 0.6042,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5856
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4093,
"p_final_under": 0.5856,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1568,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4237,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1568,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barracas Central Reserves)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1568,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4237,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Barracas Central Reserves at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 23.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Barracas Central Reserves as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Barracas Central Reserves",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Barracas Central Reserves \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.61 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +42% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1612043 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.61 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +15.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +15.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+15.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barracas Central Reserves).",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +42% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barracas Central Reserves).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0377,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.89,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2352,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2570694087403599,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4237,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+42.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.89,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0315,
"ev": 0.0377,
"implied_prob": 0.2352,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Barracas Central Reserves"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1941,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0178,
"market_prob": 0.4533,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2135,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0196,
"ev": -0.1302,
"implied_prob": 0.5467,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5271
},
"p_final": 0.4711,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0625,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1941,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.0625,
"implied_prob": 0.4533,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4711
}
},
"edge": 0.0915,
"ev": 0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.4535,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1567,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.305,
"edge": 0.0135,
"market_prob": 0.3958,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1567,
"best_odd": 2.305,
"edge": 0.0135,
"ev": -0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.3958,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4093
},
"p_final": 0.4093,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0565,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2155,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0186,
"ev": -0.1157,
"implied_prob": 0.6042,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5856
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0829,
"ev": 0.1568,
"implied_prob": 0.3991,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1612043,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1568,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.366,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3375
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1568,
"implied_prob": 0.3991,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1568,
"implied_prob": 0.3991,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Barracas Central Reserves",
"home": "Deportivo Riestra Reserves"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078753,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.4535,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0377,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.89,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2352,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2570694087403599,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4237,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+42.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1612043,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-24T17:59:19.367109+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Deportivo Riestra Reserves & Barracas Central Reserves!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Liga de Reserva — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vélez Sarsfield Reserves | 20 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 47 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors Reserves | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 39 |
| 3 | Racing Club Reserves | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 39 |
| 4 | River Plate Reserves | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 37 |
| 5 | Independiente Reserves | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 36 |
| 6 | Lanús Reserves | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 35 |
| 7 | Newell's Old Boys Reserves | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 34 |
| 8 | Quilmes 2 | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 33 |
| 9 | Defensa y Justicia Reserves | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 32 |
| 10 | Atlético Tucumán Reserves | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 30 |
| 11 | Unión de Santa Fe Reserves | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 29 |
| 12 | Estudiantes La Plata Reserves | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 28 |
| 13 | Argentinos Juniors Reserves | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 28 |
| 14 | Belgrano Córdoba Reserves | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 15 | Talleres de Córdoba Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 16 | Huracán Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 17 | Rosario Central Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 18 | Platense Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 19 | Deportivo Riestra Reserves | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 20 | Independiente Rivadavia Reserves | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
| 21 | Instituto Reserves | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 24 |
| 22 | San Lorenzo Reserves | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24 |
| 23 | Gimnasia La Plata Reserves | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 24 | Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 25 | Banfield Reserves | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 26 | Ferro 2 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 27 | Central Córdoba SdE Reserves | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| 28 | Colón Reserves | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 29 | Aldosivi Reserves | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 30 | Barracas Central Reserves | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 17 |
| 31 | Sarmiento Reserves | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 |
| 32 | Tigre Reserves | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 |
| 33 | Godoy Cruz Reserves | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 15 |
| 34 | Atlético Rafaela 2 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 |
| 35 | Estudiantes Río Cuarto 2 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 11 |
| 36 | San Martín de San Juan Reserves | 18 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 8 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vélez Sarsfield Reserves | 20 | 42 | 13 | +29 | 47 |
| 2 | Lanús Reserves | 19 | 40 | 27 | +13 | 35 |
| 3 | Independiente Reserves | 19 | 38 | 19 | +19 | 36 |
| 4 | Defensa y Justicia Reserves | 18 | 38 | 24 | +14 | 32 |
| 5 | Boca Juniors Reserves | 20 | 36 | 12 | +24 | 39 |
| 6 | Racing Club Reserves | 21 | 33 | 26 | +7 | 39 |
| 7 | River Plate Reserves | 21 | 29 | 20 | +9 | 37 |
| 8 | Newell's Old Boys Reserves | 19 | 27 | 18 | +9 | 34 |
| 9 | Talleres de Córdoba Reserves | 18 | 27 | 21 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 | Belgrano Córdoba Reserves | 18 | 27 | 29 | -2 | 27 |
| 11 | Atlético Tucumán Reserves | 19 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 30 |
| 12 | Estudiantes La Plata Reserves | 18 | 25 | 16 | +9 | 28 |
| 13 | Deportivo Riestra Reserves | 18 | 25 | 18 | +7 | 25 |
| 14 | Rosario Central Reserves | 18 | 25 | 22 | +3 | 26 |
| 15 | Argentinos Juniors Reserves | 18 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 28 |
| 16 | Huracán Reserves | 18 | 23 | 17 | +6 | 26 |
| 17 | Unión de Santa Fe Reserves | 18 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 29 |
| 18 | Independiente Rivadavia Reserves | 18 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 24 |
| 19 | San Lorenzo Reserves | 18 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 24 |
| 20 | Central Córdoba SdE Reserves | 18 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 19 |
| 21 | Atlético Rafaela 2 | 18 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 12 |
| 22 | Quilmes 2 | 18 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 33 |
| 23 | Instituto Reserves | 18 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 24 |
| 24 | Ferro 2 | 18 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 22 |
| 25 | Godoy Cruz Reserves | 18 | 20 | 30 | -10 | 15 |
| 26 | Gimnasia La Plata Reserves | 18 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 23 |
| 27 | Platense Reserves | 18 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 26 |
| 28 | Aldosivi Reserves | 18 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 18 |
| 29 | Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | 18 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 23 |
| 30 | Sarmiento Reserves | 18 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 16 |
| 31 | San Martín de San Juan Reserves | 18 | 16 | 59 | -43 | 8 |
| 32 | Colón Reserves | 18 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 18 |
| 33 | Tigre Reserves | 18 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
| 34 | Banfield Reserves | 18 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 23 |
| 35 | Barracas Central Reserves | 18 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 17 |
| 36 | Estudiantes Río Cuarto 2 | 18 | 9 | 32 | -23 | 11 |
