Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.93
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Shonan Bellmare win · Shonan Bellmare 1–0 Montedio Yamagata
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "50303ce533d60271fbbb622fb3fcaff2fb3982ac78c04a52ee77713ad2cddd6c",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.3,
"away_win_prob": 0.3517,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.84,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.84,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.3,
"home_win_prob": 0.3517,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Montedio Yamagata and -2.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "Montedio Yamagata"
},
"away_xg": 1.3,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Shonan Bellmare",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1094,
"edge_gap": 0.0,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4612,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 35.2,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 35.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.05
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.05,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Shonan Bellmare Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.17,
"market_odds": 2.05,
"model_odds": 2.84,
"overround": 5.8,
"prob_edge": -13.6,
"value_pct": -27.8,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 72.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 1,
"home_score_rate": 72.7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.3,
"home_expected": 1.3,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Shonan Bellmare or Draw",
"prob": 64.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Shonan Bellmare or Montedio Yamagata",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Montedio Yamagata",
"prob": 64.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Shonan Bellmare or Montedio Yamagata",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 35.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 35.2,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Shonan Bellmare"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-2.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 38.3,
"implied_prob": 25.4,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Montedio Yamagata Win",
"model_prob": 35.2,
"odds": 3.93
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Montedio Yamagata",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 24.06,
"draw": 29.82,
"home": 46.12
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-08-15 10:02:07",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-08-15 09:33:00",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Shonan Bellmare",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.12,
"gap_pp": -10.94,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 35.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.82,
"gap_pp": -0.18,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.06,
"gap_pp": 11.12,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 35.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.05,
"gap_pp": 3.15,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 54.95,
"gap_pp": -3.15,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.05,
"early": 2.05,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.12,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.12,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.17,
"early": 3.17,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.82,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.82,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.93,
"early": 3.93,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.06,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.06,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.11,
"early": 2.11,
"implied_closing_pct": 45.05,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 45.05,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.73,
"early": 1.73,
"implied_closing_pct": 54.95,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 54.95,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 11.1,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -3.5,
"ev": -0.2188,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.2,
"market_prob": 0.1613,
"market_prob_pct": 16.1,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.3,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Shonan Bellmare).",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1389,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.9,
"text": "-13.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4612,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0547,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.5,
"text": "+5.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2788,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Shonan Bellmare",
"sort_key": 5393.76,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 2050.0,
"tier": "pass",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"alert_team": "Montedio Yamagata",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 11.11,
"hero_label": "Montedio Yamagata",
"market_prob_pct": 46.1,
"market_team": "Shonan Bellmare",
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"model_team": "Shonan Bellmare",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 9,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Shonan Bellmare)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Shonan Bellmare)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0547,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3825,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Shonan Bellmare at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Shonan Bellmare as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Shonan Bellmare",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Montedio Yamagata \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.93 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +38% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1606613 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.93 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Shonan Bellmare).",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +38% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Shonan Bellmare).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1389,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4612,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2788,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.23076923076923078,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.3,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 60,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.11,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.11,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.6,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"steam_team": "Montedio Yamagata",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Shonan Bellmare).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Shonan Bellmare)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Shonan Bellmare)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0547,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3825,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Shonan Bellmare at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Shonan Bellmare as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Shonan Bellmare",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Montedio Yamagata \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.93 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +38% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1606613 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.93 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Shonan Bellmare).",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +38% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Shonan Bellmare).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1389,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4612,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2788,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Shonan Bellmare).",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Shonan Bellmare 1.30 xG vs Montedio Yamagata 1.30 \u2192 Shonan Bellmare 35.2%",
"Market: Shonan Bellmare ~46.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Montedio Yamagata odds \u2191 +2.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Shonan Bellmare with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -10.95,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Shonan Bellmare",
"market_prob": 46.12,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.17,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.82,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.11,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Montedio Yamagata",
"market_prob": 24.06,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 11.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Montedio Yamagata",
"market_prob_pct": 24.06,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Montedio Yamagata"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Montedio Yamagata\u0027s win probability at 35.2%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 24.1%, a difference of 11.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 11.11,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Shonan Bellmare",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-10.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -10.9,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-10.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -10.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 60,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Shonan Bellmare \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Shonan Bellmare 1.30 xG vs Montedio Yamagata 1.30 \u2192 Shonan Bellmare 35.2%",
"Market: Shonan Bellmare ~46.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Montedio Yamagata odds \u2191 +2.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Shonan Bellmare with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 11.11,
"hero_label": "Montedio Yamagata",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Montedio Yamagata odds lengthened \u2191 +2.6%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (3/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Montedio Yamagata.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Montedio Yamagata.",
"Confirmation remains limited (3/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Montedio Yamagata more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Montedio Yamagata (\u2191 +2.6%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (3/13), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.11,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Montedio Yamagata",
"largest_gap_pp": 11.1,
"lead": "The model rates Montedio Yamagata considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -10.95,
"edge_pp": -10.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Shonan Bellmare",
"market_prob_pct": 46.12,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.17,
"edge_pp": -0.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.82,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 11.11,
"edge_pp": 11.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Montedio Yamagata",
"market_prob_pct": 24.06,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Shonan Bellmare (46.1%).",
"Montedio Yamagata odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +2.6%, 3/13) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Shonan Bellmare \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 25.45,
"closing_odds": 3.93,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 25.45,
"entry_odds": 3.93,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 21,
"bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.6
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "3/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 8h 42m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Montedio Yamagata (swing 4.21 \u2192 3.39 \u2192 3.90) \u2014 net 2.6% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.93",
"3.87",
"3.80"
],
"display": "4.21 \u2192 3.39 \u2192 3.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 8h 42m",
"pick_team": "Montedio Yamagata",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.21"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.39"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.8,
3.93,
3.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,4.2",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.93"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.8,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Montedio Yamagata",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"open_odds": 3.8,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Montedio Yamagata",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 9,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/13",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"open_odds": 3.8,
"pick_team": "Montedio Yamagata",
"steam_score": 9,
"steam_team_name": "Montedio Yamagata",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Montedio Yamagata",
"away_team_id": 312,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/312.webp",
"away_team_name": "Montedio Yamagata",
"away_team_slug": "montedio-yamagata",
"country_code": "JP",
"country_display_name": "Japan",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/jp.svg",
"country_id": 82,
"country_name": "Japan",
"fixture_id": 1606613,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Japan",
"home_team_display_name": "Shonan Bellmare",
"home_team_id": 284,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/284.webp",
"home_team_name": "Shonan Bellmare",
"home_team_slug": "shonan-bellmare",
"league_country": "Japan",
"league_country_display": "Japan",
"league_display_name": "J2 League",
"league_id": 99,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/99.webp",
"league_name": "J2 League",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-08-15 10:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Kanagawa",
"venue_name": "Lemon Gas Stadium Hiratsuka"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.25,
"best_odd": 3.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0278,
"ev": 0.0547,
"implied_prob": 0.2406,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2406,
"draw": 0.2982,
"home": 0.4612
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.2684
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2992,
"best_odd": 3.17,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0005,
"ev": -0.0563,
"implied_prob": 0.2982,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2406,
"draw": 0.2982,
"home": 0.4612
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2977
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3761,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0412,
"ev": -0.1389,
"implied_prob": 0.4612,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2406,
"draw": 0.2982,
"home": 0.4612
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.42
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.93,
"edge": 0.0973,
"ev": 0.3825,
"implied_prob": 0.2545,
"model_prob": 0.3518
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.17,
"edge": -0.019,
"ev": -0.0603,
"implied_prob": 0.3155,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": -0.136,
"ev": -0.2789,
"implied_prob": 0.4878,
"model_prob": 0.3518
}
},
"btts": {
"btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"ou_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0547,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3825,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0547,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Shonan Bellmare)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0547,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3825,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Shonan Bellmare at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Shonan Bellmare as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Shonan Bellmare",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Montedio Yamagata \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.93 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +38% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1606613 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.93 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Shonan Bellmare).",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +38% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Shonan Bellmare).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1389,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4612,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2788,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0412,
"ev": -0.1389,
"implied_prob": 0.4612,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Shonan Bellmare"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1606613,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0547,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3518,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Montedio Yamagata",
"home": "Shonan Bellmare"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.021168,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0547,
"implied_prob": 0.2406,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Montedio Yamagata",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1389,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4612,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2788,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1606613,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-08-15T10:02:09.775420+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Shonan Bellmare & Montedio Yamagata!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
J2 League — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 2 | Omiya Ardija | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 3 | Albirex Niigata | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Shonan Bellmare | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Kataller Toyama | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Yokohama FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Tokushima Vortis | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Montedio Yamagata | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 9 | Fujieda MYFC | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Tochigi City | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 12 | Blaublitz Akita | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 13 | Júbilo Iwata | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 14 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 15 | Iwaki FC | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 16 | Oita Trinita | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 17 | Sagan Tosu | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 18 | Ventforet Kofu | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 19 | Consadole Sapporo | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 20 | Imabari | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Omiya Ardija | 8 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 16 |
| 2 | Kataller Toyama | 8 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 14 |
| 3 | Yokohama FC | 8 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Vegalta Sendai | 8 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Tochigi City | 8 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 10 |
| 6 | Fujieda MYFC | 8 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 12 |
| 7 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 8 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Blaublitz Akita | 8 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Albirex Niigata | 8 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 16 |
| 10 | Iwaki FC | 8 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 9 |
| 11 | Montedio Yamagata | 8 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 12 |
| 12 | Júbilo Iwata | 8 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | Consadole Sapporo | 8 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 5 |
| 14 | Shonan Bellmare | 8 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 15 |
| 15 | Tokushima Vortis | 8 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 13 |
| 16 | Sagan Tosu | 8 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 |
| 17 | Oita Trinita | 8 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 |
| 18 | Imabari | 8 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 4 |
| 19 | Ventforet Kofu | 8 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 7 |
| 20 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 8 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 10 |
