Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Douglas Haig Douglas Haig ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-4 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.46
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Douglas Haig win · Sportivo Belgrano 0–4 Douglas Haig
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "4a63ba58eb77bb65110062a95122be4028929b7ddaa922a9df5be3075831123b",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.33,
"away_win_prob": 0.3659,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2964,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.73,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.96,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.27,
"home_win_prob": 0.3377,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Sportivo Belgrano or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Sportivo Belgrano"
},
"away_xg": 1.33,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Douglas Haig",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1089,
"edge_gap": 0.0284,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.257,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 36.6,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 33.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.46
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.46,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Douglas Haig Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.89,
"market_odds": 3.46,
"model_odds": 2.73,
"overround": 12.4,
"prob_edge": 7.7,
"value_pct": 26.7,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 11,
"away_failed_to_score": 10,
"away_played": 24,
"away_score_rate": 73.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 12,
"home_failed_to_score": 11,
"home_played": 25,
"home_score_rate": 71.9,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.33,
"home_expected": 1.27,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Sportivo Belgrano or Draw",
"prob": 63.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Sportivo Belgrano or Douglas Haig",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Douglas Haig",
"prob": 66.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Sportivo Belgrano or Douglas Haig",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 36.6,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 33.8,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Douglas Haig"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 26.7,
"implied_prob": 28.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Douglas Haig Win",
"model_prob": 36.6,
"odds": 3.46
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Douglas Haig",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 25.7,
"draw": 33.69,
"home": 40.61
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 19:01:21",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 18:32:28",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Sportivo Belgrano",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.61,
"gap_pp": -6.85,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.69,
"gap_pp": -4.04,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.7,
"gap_pp": 10.89,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 36.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.45,
"gap_pp": 15.75,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 67.55,
"gap_pp": -15.75,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.19,
"early": 2.19,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.61,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.61,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.64,
"early": 2.64,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.69,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.69,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.46,
"early": 3.46,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.7,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.7,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.81,
"early": 2.81,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.45,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.45,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.35,
"early": 1.35,
"implied_closing_pct": 67.55,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 67.55,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 15.8,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -4.2,
"ev": -0.25,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.0,
"market_prob": 0.1667,
"market_prob_pct": 16.7,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.27,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1453,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0187,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"market_prob": 0.4164,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1998,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0257,
"ev": -0.1241,
"implied_prob": 0.5836,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5579
},
"p_final": 0.4351,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.199,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0427,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1453,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0427,
"implied_prob": 0.4164,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4351
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2401,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -24.0,
"text": "-24.0%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.2535,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 25.4,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2535,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10378.15,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1377,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.78,
"edge": 0.0216,
"edge_pp": 2.2,
"market_prob": 0.3252,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1377,
"best_odd": 2.78,
"edge": 0.0216,
"ev": -0.0358,
"implied_prob": 0.3252,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3468
},
"p_final": 0.3468,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.34,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0358,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1893,
"best_odd": 1.34,
"edge": -0.0297,
"ev": -0.1356,
"implied_prob": 0.6748,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6451
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4026,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 40.3,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.2541,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -25.4,
"text": "-25.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.4026,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10362.34,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Douglas Haig, but the model still strongly favours Douglas Haig.",
"consensus_odds": 3.46,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0161,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.6,
"text": "-1.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.257,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0161,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.6,
"text": "-1.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2664,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Douglas Haig",
"sort_key": 1795.975,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +30.0%",
"alert_team": "Douglas Haig",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.89,
"hero_label": "Douglas Haig",
"market_prob_pct": 25.7,
"market_team": "Sportivo Belgrano",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Douglas Haig",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Douglas Haig, but the model still strongly favours Douglas Haig."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Douglas Haig, but the model still strongly favours Douglas Haig."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4026,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4026,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Douglas Haig at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 25.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Douglas Haig as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Douglas Haig, but the model still strongly favours Douglas Haig.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Douglas Haig",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +40.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +40.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +40.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+40.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Douglas Haig, but the model still strongly favours Douglas Haig.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 52,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Douglas Haig, but the model still strongly favours Douglas Haig.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0161,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.46,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.257,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.28901734104046245,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2664,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.125,
"evidence": {
"score": 70,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.2,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 52,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.89,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.89,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.33,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.27,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.27 \u00b7 Away xG 1.33 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 30.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +30.0%",
"steam_team": "Douglas Haig",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Douglas Haig, but the model still strongly favours Douglas Haig.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Douglas Haig, but the model still strongly favours Douglas Haig."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Douglas Haig, but the model still strongly favours Douglas Haig."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4026,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4026,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Douglas Haig at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 25.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Douglas Haig as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Douglas Haig, but the model still strongly favours Douglas Haig.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Douglas Haig",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +40.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +40.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +40.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+40.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Douglas Haig, but the model still strongly favours Douglas Haig.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 52,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Douglas Haig, but the model still strongly favours Douglas Haig.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0161,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.46,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.257,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.28901734104046245,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2664,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Douglas Haig, but the model still strongly favours Douglas Haig.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sportivo Belgrano 1.27 xG vs Douglas Haig 1.33 \u2192 Douglas Haig 36.6%",
"Market: Sportivo Belgrano ~25.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Douglas Haig odds \u2191 +30.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Douglas Haig, but the market has moved away from Douglas Haig.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.84,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Sportivo Belgrano",
"market_prob": 40.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.05,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 33.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.89,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Douglas Haig",
"market_prob": 25.7,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.25,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 32.95,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.25,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 67.05,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.88,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 41.62,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.88,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 58.38,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 10.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Douglas Haig",
"market_prob_pct": 25.7,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Douglas Haig"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Douglas Haig\u0027s win probability at 36.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 25.7%, a difference of 10.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 10.89,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Douglas Haig",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 25.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+10.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 10.9,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+10.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 52,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Douglas Haig, but the model still strongly favours Douglas Haig. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sportivo Belgrano 1.27 xG vs Douglas Haig 1.33 \u2192 Douglas Haig 36.6%",
"Market: Sportivo Belgrano ~25.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Douglas Haig odds \u2191 +30.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Douglas Haig, but the market has moved away from Douglas Haig.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.89,
"hero_label": "Douglas Haig",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Douglas Haig odds lengthened \u2191 +30.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (1/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Douglas Haig.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Douglas Haig.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Douglas Haig.",
"Confirmation remains limited (1/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Douglas Haig."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Douglas Haig more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Douglas Haig (\u2191 +30.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.89,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Douglas Haig",
"largest_gap_pp": 10.9,
"lead": "The model rates Douglas Haig considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.84,
"edge_pp": -6.84,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Sportivo Belgrano",
"market_prob_pct": 40.61,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.05,
"edge_pp": -4.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 33.69,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 10.89,
"edge_pp": 10.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Douglas Haig",
"market_prob_pct": 25.7,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Douglas Haig.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Sportivo Belgrano (25.7%).",
"However, Douglas Haig has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +30.0%, 1/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Douglas Haig, Market \u2192 Sportivo Belgrano, while Douglas Haig odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 28.9,
"closing_odds": 3.46,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 28.9,
"entry_odds": 3.46,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +30.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 30.0
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "1/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.25,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +30.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 30.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 50m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Douglas Haig (30.0%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 30.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.46",
"2.98",
"2.50"
],
"display": "3.70 \u2192 2.50 \u2192 3.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 50m",
"pick_team": "Douglas Haig",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.5,
3.46,
3.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,3.9",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.46"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.5,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Douglas Haig",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.25,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +30.0%",
"open_odds": 2.5,
"summary": "Market moved away from Douglas Haig while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Douglas Haig",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/8",
"current_odds": 3.25,
"move_display": "\u2191 +30.0%",
"open_odds": 2.5,
"pick_team": "Douglas Haig",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_team_name": "Douglas Haig",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "douglas-haig",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Douglas Haig",
"away_team_id": 789,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/789.webp",
"away_team_name": "Douglas Haig",
"away_team_public_id": "2GgLD3OIe0bVGW",
"away_team_slug": "douglas-haig",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1606418,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Sportivo Belgrano",
"home_team_id": 1966,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1966.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sportivo Belgrano",
"home_team_public_id": "4Tmqqldywlu7Sw",
"home_team_slug": "sportivo-belgrano",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sportivo-belgrano",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Torneo Federal A",
"league_id": 134,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/134.webp",
"league_name": "Torneo Federal A",
"league_public_id": "48d0y0pjcpEL9D",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 19:00:00",
"public_id": "2RcecHCwDefzFV",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "San Francisco",
"venue_name": "Estadio Oscar C. Boero"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.251,
"best_odd": 3.46,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0273,
"ev": -0.0161,
"implied_prob": 0.257,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.257,
"draw": 0.3369,
"home": 0.4061
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.2844
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4227,
"best_odd": 2.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0171,
"ev": -0.1557,
"implied_prob": 0.3369,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.257,
"draw": 0.3369,
"home": 0.4061
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3198
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4037,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0277,
"ev": -0.1713,
"implied_prob": 0.4061,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.257,
"draw": 0.3369,
"home": 0.4061
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.3784
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.46,
"edge": 0.077,
"ev": 0.2663,
"implied_prob": 0.289,
"model_prob": 0.366
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.64,
"edge": -0.0823,
"ev": -0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.3788,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": -0.1191,
"ev": -0.2608,
"implied_prob": 0.4566,
"model_prob": 0.3375
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1998,
"alpha_yes": 0.1453,
"best_no_odd": 1.67,
"best_yes_odd": 2.3,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1288,
"edge_yes": 0.1288,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2401,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1241,
"ev_yes": 0.2535,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0427,
"implied_no": 0.5838,
"implied_yes": 0.4162,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1998,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0257,
"ev": -0.1241,
"implied_prob": 0.5836,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5579
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1453,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0427,
"implied_prob": 0.4164,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4351
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.5579,
"p_final_yes": 0.4351,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1377,
"alpha_under": 0.1893,
"best_over_odd": 2.91,
"best_under_odd": 1.44,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.78,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.34,
"edge_over": 0.1525,
"edge_under": -0.1525,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4026,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0358,
"ev_under": -0.2541,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1356,
"implied_over": 0.3295,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3252,
"implied_under": 0.6705,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6748,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1377,
"best_odd": 2.78,
"edge": 0.0216,
"ev": -0.0358,
"implied_prob": 0.3252,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3468
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1893,
"best_odd": 1.34,
"edge": -0.0297,
"ev": -0.1356,
"implied_prob": 0.6748,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6451
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3468,
"p_final_under": 0.6451,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4026,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4026,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4026,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Douglas Haig, but the model still strongly favours Douglas Haig."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4026,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4026,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Douglas Haig at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 25.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Douglas Haig as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Douglas Haig, but the model still strongly favours Douglas Haig.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Douglas Haig",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +40.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +40.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +40.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+40.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Douglas Haig, but the model still strongly favours Douglas Haig.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 52,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Douglas Haig, but the model still strongly favours Douglas Haig.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0161,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.46,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.257,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.28901734104046245,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2664,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.46,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0273,
"ev": -0.0161,
"implied_prob": 0.257,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Douglas Haig"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1453,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0187,
"market_prob": 0.4164,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1998,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0257,
"ev": -0.1241,
"implied_prob": 0.5836,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5579
},
"p_final": 0.4351,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0427,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1453,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0427,
"implied_prob": 0.4164,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4351
}
},
"edge": 0.1288,
"ev": 0.2535,
"implied_prob": 0.4162,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1377,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.78,
"edge": 0.0216,
"market_prob": 0.3252,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1377,
"best_odd": 2.78,
"edge": 0.0216,
"ev": -0.0358,
"implied_prob": 0.3252,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3468
},
"p_final": 0.3468,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0358,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1893,
"best_odd": 1.34,
"edge": -0.0297,
"ev": -0.1356,
"implied_prob": 0.6748,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6451
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1525,
"ev": 0.4026,
"implied_prob": 0.3295,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1606418,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4026,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.366,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3375
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4026,
"implied_prob": 0.3295,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4026,
"implied_prob": 0.3295,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Douglas Haig",
"home": "Sportivo Belgrano"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.138158,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2535,
"implied_prob": 0.4162,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0161,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.46,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.257,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.28901734104046245,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2664,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1606418,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T19:01:23.168907+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Sportivo Belgrano & Douglas Haig!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Torneo Federal A — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpo de Bahía Blanca | 16 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 31 |
| 2 | Douglas Haig | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 31 |
| 3 | Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 30 |
| 4 | San Martín de Formosa | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 30 |
| 5 | Alvarado | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 27 |
| 6 | Gimnasia de Chivilcoy | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 27 |
| 7 | Defensores de Belgrano de Villa Ramallo | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 27 |
| 8 | Kimberley de Mar del Plata | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 26 |
| 9 | Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26 |
| 10 | Sol de América | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 26 |
| 11 | Juventud Antoniana | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 12 | Cipolletti | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 13 | Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 14 | 9 de Julio de Rafaela | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 15 | Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 24 |
| 16 | Villa Mitre | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 23 |
| 17 | Argentino de Monte Maíz | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 23 |
| 18 | Atenas | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 |
| 19 | Huracán Las Heras | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 |
| 20 | Atlético Escobar | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 21 | Fundación Amigos | 16 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 21 |
| 22 | Deportivo Rincón | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 23 | San Martín de Mendoza | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
| 24 | Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 19 |
| 25 | Independiente de Chivilcoy | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 19 |
| 26 | El Linqueño | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| 27 | Costa Brava | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 28 | Sol de Mayo | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 29 | Boca Unidos | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 30 | Germinal de Rawson | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 31 | Juventud Unida Universitario | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 17 |
| 32 | Tucumán Central | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 33 | Gimnasia de Concepción del Uruguay | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 17 |
| 34 | Guillermo Brown | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 17 |
| 35 | Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 |
| 36 | Santamarina | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 13 |
| 37 | Círculo Deportivo | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 13 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 de Julio de Rafaela | 18 | 28 | 27 | +1 | 25 |
| 2 | San Martín de Formosa | 16 | 25 | 19 | +6 | 30 |
| 3 | Defensores de Belgrano de Villa Ramallo | 18 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 27 |
| 4 | Douglas Haig | 18 | 22 | 15 | +7 | 31 |
| 5 | Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 30 |
| 6 | Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 19 |
| 7 | Atlético Escobar | 18 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 22 |
| 8 | Alvarado | 16 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 27 |
| 9 | Juventud Antoniana | 16 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 25 |
| 10 | Sol de América | 16 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 | Cipolletti | 16 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 25 |
| 12 | Boca Unidos | 16 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 18 |
| 13 | Gimnasia de Chivilcoy | 18 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 27 |
| 14 | Fundación Amigos | 16 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 21 |
| 15 | Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 25 |
| 16 | Argentino de Monte Maíz | 16 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 23 |
| 17 | Kimberley de Mar del Plata | 16 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 26 |
| 18 | Sol de Mayo | 16 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 18 |
| 19 | Independiente de Chivilcoy | 18 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 19 |
| 20 | Villa Mitre | 16 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 23 |
| 21 | Tucumán Central | 16 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 17 |
| 22 | El Linqueño | 18 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 19 |
| 23 | Olimpo de Bahía Blanca | 16 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 31 |
| 24 | Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 26 |
| 25 | Deportivo Rincón | 16 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 26 | Guillermo Brown | 16 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 17 |
| 27 | Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 24 |
| 28 | Atenas | 16 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 23 |
| 29 | Costa Brava | 16 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 30 | Gimnasia de Concepción del Uruguay | 18 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 17 |
| 31 | Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 15 |
| 32 | Huracán Las Heras | 16 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 23 |
| 33 | San Martín de Mendoza | 16 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 19 |
| 34 | Juventud Unida Universitario | 16 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 17 |
| 35 | Santamarina | 16 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 13 |
| 36 | Círculo Deportivo | 16 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 13 |
| 37 | Germinal de Rawson | 16 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 18 |
